2022 Benedict Evans 2022 The New Gatekeepers

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 11 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

103
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
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Slide 1
front_matter
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The slide uses a simple three-circle layout to present the core topics of the presentation.summarize
03
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)
04
The chart illustrates the long-term trend of interest rates, emphasizing the recent period of near-zero rates.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
05
The chart uses two lines: 'Addressable retail' (red) and 'All retail & food service' (black), with dotted lines indicating the pre-pandemic trend extrapolation.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
06
The chart includes dotted trend lines extrapolated from pre-2020 data.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
07
The chart shows a clear 'pull-forward' effect where growth peaked in 2020/2021 and has since moderated in 2022.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
08
The chart uses inflation-adjusted dollars (2022 dollars).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
09
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
10
The chart segments investment into rounds greater than and less than $50m.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
11
The chart illustrates the 'dot-com' bubble peak around 2000 and the much larger recent peak around 2021.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
12
The slide uses a photo of competing quick-commerce ads to illustrate the 'free money' era of rapid customer acquisition.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
13
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Myth Buster
14
The chart highlights that despite layoffs, the net hiring growth in recent years remains significant.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Myth Buster
15
The chart shows a massive increase in headcount for Amazon compared to other tech giants.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Myth Buster
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Uses a binary comparison framework to balance pessimistic and optimistic outlooks.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Myth Buster
17
The chart illustrates that despite market volatility (e.g., dotcom bubble), the underlying adoption trend remains consistent.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Facts (What)Loop · Myth Buster
18
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)
19
Includes a data break in 1964 due to a definition change.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
20
The chart uses 2022 inflation-adjusted dollars.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
21
The chart illustrates the shift in advertising spend from traditional media (newspapers, magazines, TV, radio) to internet-based advertising over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
22
The chart illustrates the dominance of digital advertising across major global markets.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
23
The chart uses color to distinguish between digital-native global platforms (grey) and traditional media companies (red).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
24
The chart illustrates market concentration in the advertising industry.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
25
The chart illustrates the high and consistent marketing spend required by these platforms to maintain market reach.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Tale Two Worlds
26
The slide illustrates the convergence of traditionally separate business functions into a unified customer acquisition strategy.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
27
The chart highlights the scale of digital advertising (Online advertising, Search ads, Amazon ads) relative to traditional retail costs.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
28
The chart uses a red bar for the USA to draw focus, while other countries are in grey.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
29
The chart uses a stacked bar format to distinguish between shopping centers/malls and stand-alone retail, though the legend colors in the chart body for non-USAcompare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
30
The chart illustrates the 'retail apocalypse' and the rise of e-commerce logistics infrastructure.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
31
The chart illustrates a rapid acceleration in warehouse expansion starting around 2019.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
32
The chart uses a dotted line for historical data and a solid line for more recent data, likely indicating a reporting change or data source shift.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
33
The chart uses a dotted line for historical 'Other' revenue (predominantly ads) and a solid red line for the transition to explicit 'Ads' reporting.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
34
The chart illustrates the structural shift in advertising spend from traditional media to digital platforms.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
35
The chart highlights the high profitability and low capital intensity of the Ads business compared to AWS and the overall Group.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
36
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
37
The slide uses a series of circles to present company-specific revenue data followed by a summary of the underlying business model drivers.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
38
The chart highlights the emergence and growth of 'Retail' media as a distinct category starting around 2020.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
39
The slide uses a quote to illustrate the dependency of retailers on promotional money from manufacturers.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
40
The chart illustrates the trend of Chinese manufacturers bypassing traditional retail channels to sell directly to consumers on Amazon.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Precedent
41
The slide highlights Anker's success as a brand built on the Amazon marketplace.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Precedent
42
The chart illustrates the growth of Shopify relative to Amazon Marketplace.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Precedent
43
The chart illustrates the disruption of traditional fast fashion incumbents by a digital-native competitor.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Precedent
44
The chart highlights Shein's rapid revenue growth starting from 2018, contrasting with the more stable or fluctuating growth of traditional fast fashion retaileanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Precedent
45
The slide uses a process-like flow to show the evolution from traditional fast fashion (Zara) to internet-native fast fashion (Shein).compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
46
The chart illustrates the impact of technology (UPCs, barcodes, computers) on retail inventory management.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
47
The chart illustrates the shift from broadcast/cable dominance to the proliferation of streaming content.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
48
The chart shows a long-term downward trend in the reach of the most popular TV shows.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
49
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
50
The chart illustrates a long-term trend of growth followed by a sharp recent decline in traditional TV consumption.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Pattern Hunter
51
The chart illustrates the disruption of the physical rental market by digital streaming services.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
52
The chart highlights the convergence of spending between traditional media giants (grey) and tech platforms (red).quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
53
The chart highlights the rapid growth of Disney's streaming services relative to Netflix's established trajectory.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
54
The chart uses a diverging bar structure to show the contrast between a profitable incumbent/disruptor (Netflix) and the heavy investment losses of a legacy plaquantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
55
The chart uses color to distinguish between legacy media companies (grey) and new entrants (red).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
56
The chart highlights YouTube's growing content spend relative to traditional media giants.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
57
The chart shows the convergence and crossover of Netflix and YouTube viewing shares.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
58
The chart highlights how YouTube creator content competes with traditional streaming platform metrics.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Before After
59
The chart illustrates the convergence of social and video platforms, questioning traditional industry definitions.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
60
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
61
The slide uses a process flow diagram to illustrate the spectrum of software's impact on industries.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
62
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
63
The chart illustrates the shift in Nike's sales mix towards D2C over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
64
The slide uses a linear process flow to represent business operations.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
65
The slide uses a hub-and-spoke style process flow to show the transition from centralized production/logistics to fragmented, targeted segments.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
66
The slide uses a simple comparison structure to highlight the shift from scarcity to abundance.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
67
The slide uses a simple flow diagram to show the synthesis of two market conditions into a new business opportunity.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
68
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
69
The chart uses red bars for tech-focused companies (Amazon, Alibaba, Alphabet) and grey for others.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Implications (So What)Loop · Aha Moment
70
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)
71
Uses a simple linear process flow with circular nodes.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
72
The chart compares 'Today' (actual) vs 'Expected in 3 years' (forecast) for each time period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
73
The slide uses a 'before-after' framing to illustrate the shift in market narrative.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
74
The chart illustrates the volatility of NFT markets and the potential disconnect between speculative trading volume and actual user engagement.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
75
The chart highlights the massive scale of Meta's investment compared to Apple's historical R&D spend.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
76
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
77
Illustrates market disruption and the slow adoption curve of new technologies.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Maturity Curve
78
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
79
The slide uses a rhetorical question to transition into a discussion about the utility of AI/computer vision.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
80
The slide uses a simple process flow diagram to illustrate the abstraction of machine learning capabilities.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
81
The slide uses a rhetorical question 'That's clever, but so what?' to bridge the technical demonstration to a broader discussion.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
82
The slide demonstrates the capability of generative AI to create cinematic-quality imagery.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
83
The slide uses a screenshot of a browser window to provide a concrete example of AI capabilities.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
84
The slide uses a simple process flow diagram to move from a specific concept to a broader inquiry.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
85
The slide uses a screenshot of a Perplexity AI search result to demonstrate the capability of generative search to answer complex queries, contrasting this withframe_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
86
The slide uses an AI-generated image to make a point about the capabilities of generative AI in search.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
87
The slide showcases AI-generated UI mockups, likely created using Midjourney, to illustrate the potential of generative design in software interfaces.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
88
The slide uses a visual puzzle to prompt discussion on the future of on-demand product creation.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
89
The slide uses a visual example to demonstrate the creative potential of generative AI models like Midjourney.other
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
90
The chart illustrates the increasing demand for computing capacity driven by ML and Generative ML.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
91
The slide uses a simple linear process diagram to contrast three distinct viewpoints.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Precedent
92
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)
93
The slide uses a bubble chart to represent a non-exhaustive list of tech trends or issues.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)
94
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)
95
The chart illustrates the decline of traditional industrial giants like GM relative to the rise of modern tech companies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)
96
The chart illustrates the shift from physical retail (car-commerce) to digital retail (e-commerce).establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Jobs To Be Done
97
The slide uses the 'Jobs to be Done' framework as a conceptual hook for analyzing market growth.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Jobs To Be Done
98
The slide uses the 'Jobs to be Done' framework to challenge the viewer to look beyond the surface-level revenue data.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Jobs To Be Done
99
The slide uses the 'Jobs to be Done' framework to frame the inquiry into market trends.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Jobs To Be Done
100
The chart highlights the exponential growth in satellite launches starting around 2020.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · The Action (Now What)Loop · Jobs To Be Done
101
transition
102
This is an introductory slide for a presentation deck.other
103
summarize