2021 Benedict Evans 2021 Three Steps to the Future

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 7 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

5
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

94
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
02
The slide uses a simple temporal progression framework.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
03
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
04
The slide uses a visual contrast between two highlighted circles and a list of 'everything else' to suggest a focus imbalance in tech discourse.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
05
The slide uses arrows to indicate a conceptual evolution or rebranding of existing technologies into broader, more ambitious categories.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
06
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
07
The slide uses a classic historical quote to frame a modern technological argument.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
08
Uses a simple linear process diagram to contrast the three eras of the web.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
09
The slide uses a linear process flow to illustrate the evolution of software development and execution models.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
10
The slide uses a simple comparison list format to contrast old and new paradigms.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
11
The chart illustrates the significant growth and volatility of the two largest crypto networks over a 5-year period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
12
The chart highlights the relatively small size of crypto assets compared to traditional asset classes like government and corporate bonds.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
13
The slide uses circular callouts to present key performance indicators.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
14
The slide uses a screenshot of the OpenSea leaderboard to illustrate the 'white-hot' nature of the market.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
15
The map uses a hexagonal grid to visualize network density/coverage.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
16
quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
17
The slide uses a contrast-pair structure to challenge common perceptions of market valuation.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
18
The slide uses a simple visual layout with three circles to emphasize key characteristics of the subject matter.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
19
The slide uses a rhetorical device (antithesis/paradox) to challenge the binary view of open vs. closed systems.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
20
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
21
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
22
The slide uses a vertical red dotted line to visually separate the two eras.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
23
The chart highlights that despite sales of the Oculus Quest 2, there was no significant surge in search interest during the lockdown period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
24
The chart highlights the disparity in public interest between Roblox and VR/Oculus.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
25
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to frame the strategic question about platform longevity.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
26
The chart highlights Snap in red to provide a benchmark for the gaming figures.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
27
size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
28
Uses a visual analogy to contrast technological evolution with market penetration.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
29
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
30
The slide uses a simple visual progression of circles to contrast established technologies with emerging ones.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
31
The chart illustrates the 'long fuse' of technology adoption.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
32
The chart uses Google Ngram data to visualize the 'AI Winter' and 'VR Winter' phenomena.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
33
The slide uses a 1995 TeleGeography map to demonstrate the fragmented state of early networking.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
34
The slide uses a simple flow diagram to show convergence of two themes into a central core concept.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Precedent
35
transition
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
36
The slide uses a simple binary comparison structure to contrast mature tech trends with speculative future ones.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
37
The slide uses a simple linear process diagram to illustrate technological shifts.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
38
The chart illustrates that despite growth, cloud spending remains a minority share of total enterprise IT spend.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
39
The chart illustrates the persistence of legacy technology despite industry shifts.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
40
The chart highlights the massive scale of investment in cloud infrastructure by the four major hyperscalers.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
41
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
42
The chart illustrates a consistent upward trend in SaaS adoption across all listed industries over the four-year period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
43
The chart uses a dot plot to compare three years of data across ten functional departments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
44
The slide uses logos (Excel, Google Sheets, Figma) to represent a progression of software utility.present_solution
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
45
The slide highlights the product's value proposition of consolidating email, Slack, and file sharing into a single platform with invisible machine learning.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
46
The slide uses a screenshot of the Frame.io interface to demonstrate the 'Google Docs for video' concept.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
47
The slide uses a before-and-after comparison to illustrate the impact of digital transformation on operational efficiency.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
48
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Aha Moment
49
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
50
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
51
The chart illustrates the impact of digital disruption on physical-goods-based industries.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
52
The chart illustrates different rates of disruption: some industries collapse suddenly (Pay TV, Newspaper ads) while others decline gradually (Offline retail).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
53
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to describe industry disruption.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
54
The chart highlights the divergence between traditional TV, Pay TV, and streaming services.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
55
This is a famous example of incumbent bias/underestimation of disruption.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
56
The chart highlights the significant content spending of new entrants (Netflix, Amazon, Apple) compared to legacy media companies.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
57
The chart illustrates the decline of Live TV and the rise of Subscription streaming and YouTube.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
58
The slide uses a rhetorical question as a title to frame the industry shift.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Domino Effect
59
Uses a TechCrunch screenshot as a primary artifact to establish historical context.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
60
The chart shows a significant spike in UK ecommerce penetration during 2020 compared to a more moderate increase in the USA.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
61
The chart highlights the digital divide across European nations.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
62
The chart highlights a significant spike in online retail penetration during 2020.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
63
The chart categorizes retail revenue by delivery method, highlighting the split between physical retail and ecommerce, grocery, and restaurant models.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
64
The chart illustrates the shift in market share within the US logistics sector, specifically Amazon's entry and growth.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
65
The chart compares Walmart net sales against Amazon ex. AWS revenue and Amazon GMV.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
66
The slide highlights the significant growth of Amazon's advertising business.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
67
The slide title 'Endless waves of new competitors' seems disconnected from the chart showing Shopify's own growth, implying Shopify is the 'new competitor' or testablish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
68
The chart highlights the shift in Amazon's business model towards Marketplace and the rapid growth of Shopify.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
69
Includes a screenshot of an Apple 'Personalized Ads' prompt as a case study/example.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
70
The chart illustrates the shift in market share from large brands/private label to smaller brands as the channel moves from physical retail to home-shipped ecomanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
71
The chart highlights L'Oreal as having the highest ecommerce penetration among the listed companies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
72
The chart illustrates market disruption by a new entrant using digital-first strategies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
73
The chart tracks the top 10 favorite online shopping brands for female US teenagers.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
74
The chart tracks market share for Shein, H&M, Zara, and Others.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
75
The chart illustrates the cyclical nature of retail disruption, comparing the rise of ecommerce to previous retail shifts.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
76
The slide uses a rhetorical question to challenge the audience's assumptions about retail success.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
77
The image appears to be a historical photograph of a large department store, likely Selfridges in London, used to evoke a sense of historical continuity or legatransition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
78
The chart highlights a disparity between digital-native banks (Revolut, Starling, Monzo) and traditional banks, suggesting that 'digital experience' is often a compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
79
The slide uses a central stacked bar chart representing costs, flanked by two large circles representing the functional areas of Logistics and Discovery.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
80
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
81
The slide uses a bubble chart to represent a collection of miscellaneous topics.appendix
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
82
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
83
The chart illustrates the industry disruption caused by the internet, showing the transition from physical sales to digital streaming.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Ladder Abstraction
84
The chart uses a stacked bar for Apple to show the composition of its platform rent revenue.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Ladder Abstraction
85
The chart highlights the scale of Apple's ecosystem revenue compared to other media/entertainment benchmarks.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Ladder Abstraction
86
The chart uses stacked bars for Apple segments and simple bars for industry benchmarks.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Ladder Abstraction
87
The slide uses a linear progression of circles to illustrate the shift in tech focus toward larger total addressable markets.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Ladder Abstraction
88
The chart highlights a significant surge in large-cap VC deals (over $50m) starting around 2017.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
89
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
90
The slide uses a screenshot of a blog post as a primary source of authority.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
91
The chart uses a single bar for Tesla and a stacked bar representing the top 10 OEMs.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
92
The slide uses a series of S-curves to represent the diffusion of technology across different segments of society over time.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
93
Uses a historical illustration of a Sears store to frame a question about value capture in the automotive era.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
94
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Implications