Spruce Point Capital Management · activist-deck
Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)
103 pages · 5 arc beats · 3 loops
Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)
Spruce Point Capital Management · 2024-03 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
5 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 76 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Setup & Stakes 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 22 hits — 0/5 slides
— 0/5 slides
60% 3/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides — 0/5 slides
Complication 15 slides 100% 15/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides · 80 hits — 0/15 slides
53.3% 8/15 slides · 9 hits 33.3% 5/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides — 0/15 slides
Evidence 30 slides 100% 30/30 slides 100% 30/30 slides · 191 hits — 0/30 slides
10% 3/30 slides · 5 hits 60% 18/30 slides · 19 hits 100% 30/30 slides 13.3% 4/30 slides The Monster 20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides · 125 hits — 0/20 slides
— 0/20 slides
90% 18/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides — 0/20 slides
The Victory 6 slides 100% 6/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides · 35 hits — 0/6 slides
— 0/6 slides
66.7% 4/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides — 0/6 slides
Slide inventory
103 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The image uses a 'villain' framing technique by associating the company with a run-down property and vermin.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
03
The slide uses a 'precedent' framework to establish credibility by showing past performance.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
05
Standard Spruce Point Capital Management branding.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
06
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, focusing on 'broken promises' and 'aggressive accounting'.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
07
The slide uses red text to highlight critical negative findings.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
08
The slide uses red text to highlight key negative impacts on Zillow's business model.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
09
The slide uses a red border to highlight the critical nature of the text, which focuses on business model risks and volatility.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
10
The slide uses a yellow background to highlight critical arguments against Zillow's business model.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
11
The slide uses a red border to highlight critical risk areas.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
12
The slide uses red text to highlight key claims regarding competitive threats and financial accounting practices.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
13
The slide uses a yellow background to highlight specific areas of concern, likely as part of a 'fraud-exposure' or 'villain-critique' narrative.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
14
The slide uses a red border to highlight the content as a critical summary of the activist thesis.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
15
The slide uses a numbered list format to present specific inquiries to management, typical of activist investor decks.state_demand
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
17
The slide uses yellow highlighting to emphasize critical points in the executive's quotes.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
18
The slide uses red highlighting to emphasize critical quotes and a red callout box at the bottom to connect the interview to management's recent disclosures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
19
Uses yellow highlighting to emphasize critical negative sentiment from the interviewee.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
20
The slide uses a table format to present a Q&A style interview.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
21
Uses a funnel diagram to map expert commentary against Zillow's business model.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
22
Includes a red strikethrough/annotation over the text.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
23
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).transition
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
24
The slide uses red boxes to highlight the 2023E projections for comparison against actuals mentioned in the text.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
25
The slide uses a 'before-after' or 'expose contradiction' structure by juxtaposing Zillow's growth claims with historical data and operational metrics.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
26
The slide uses yellow highlighting to emphasize specific 'growth' buzzwords within the quotes.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
27
The slide uses a screenshot of a Zillow investor presentation to highlight the discrepancy between past promises and current silence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
28
The slide uses a contrast-principle to highlight the discrepancy between management's growth narrative and the actual negative growth metrics.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
29
The chart shows quarterly data from Q1 2016 to Q4 2024.diagnose_problem
30
Highlights the shift in reporting segments between 2022 and 2023 to mask declining Premier Agent performance.expose_contradiction
31
The slide uses a Q&A format to present expert testimony.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
32
The slide uses a table format to present a dialogue between an interviewer and a broker.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
33
Uses a table to present historical management quotes alongside a critique of their credibility.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
34
The slide uses a combination of narrative critique, a news clipping, and financial data to frame management as incompetent.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
35
The slide uses a table to highlight the poor financial performance of the Mortgages segment compared to other segments.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
36
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).transition
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
37
Uses executive quotes to establish the business model's reliance on buyer-agent leads.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
38
Includes a highlighted excerpt from a news source regarding the verdict.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
39
Includes a direct quote from a legal filing/precedent regarding anti-competitive conduct.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
40
The slide uses a red color to highlight the U.S. and the non-U.S. average for contrast.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
41
The chart highlights the U.S. as an outlier in buyer agent usage compared to other developed economies.diagnose_problem
42
The slide uses a comparison of agent-to-transaction ratios to argue for a potential decline in the US agent population, negatively impacting Zillow's business mcompare_peers
43
Uses external survey data (1000watt) and industry analysis (KBW) to build a bearish case.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
44
The slide highlights a specific academic study by a professor at the University of San Diego to validate the thesis.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
45
The slide uses yellow highlighting to draw attention to specific parts of the CEO's quote regarding regulatory compliance and consumer choice.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
47
Uses a testimonial to contradict the company's narrative or highlight the financial risk of the transition.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
48
The slide uses yellow highlighting to emphasize critical operational hurdles (low conversion rates, profitability timelines, and agent dependency).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
50
The slide uses a table format to contrast Spruce Point questions with Zillow Flex agent responses.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
51
The slide uses color-coded highlighting (yellow) to emphasize key takeaways within the quote.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
52
Uses a quote-based structure to highlight a potential deceptive practice by the company.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
53
The slide uses a Q&A format to expose the low quality of leads generated by Zillow and Realtor.com.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
54
The slide uses a Q&A format to present qualitative evidence of agent dissatisfaction and business disruption.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
55
The slide uses yellow highlighting to emphasize key negative outcomes and competitive pressures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
56
The slide uses a quote to highlight a structural bottleneck in Zillow's business model.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
57
Uses a quote from a Zillow Flex agent to undermine the company's growth narrative.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
58
Includes a red-circled comparison of revenue figures and a quote from Redfin's Q2'23 earnings call to support the argument of declining conversion rates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
59
The slide uses a highlighted quote to validate the firm's investment thesis.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
60
Includes a screenshot of a Zillow contact form highlighting a pre-checked box as evidence of the alleged dark pattern.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
61
The slide uses a matrix to illustrate a coercive business practice, framing it as a contradiction to Zillow's public-facing partner program.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
62
The table highlights that in most markets, the average home value triggers the higher 40% fee band, suggesting a systematic price hike.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
63
Uses Redfin marketing materials to frame a critique of Zillow's transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
64
The slide uses highlighted text within quotes to emphasize specific strategic points.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
65
The slide uses a 'Super App' ecosystem diagram to illustrate the vision, which is then undermined by the bulleted critique.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
66
The slide uses a Q&A format to present an expert interview, highlighting the friction between Zillow's 'Super App' strategy and the operational reality of real expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
67
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison of two investor presentation slides to point out the removal of data points.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
68
Uses yellow highlighting to emphasize key critical points within the quotes.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
69
Uses news headlines as evidence of acquisition strategy; highlights competitive friction in the real-time touring space.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
70
The slide uses a 'Tegus' interview to provide qualitative evidence of a business risk.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
71
This is a classic activist investor thesis slide, using a logo as a visual anchor.frame_situation
72
The slide uses yellow highlighting to emphasize specific claims about growth and competitor weakness.expose_contradiction
73
The slide uses yellow highlighting to draw attention to specific claims, likely to facilitate later critique or contradiction.expose_contradiction
74
The slide uses color-coded text (yellow highlights) to emphasize specific negative claims about Zillow and the industry landscape.expose_contradiction
75
The slide uses a 'preempt_rebuttal' strategy by acknowledging the target's competence in a specific area to build credibility for the activist's thesis.preempt_rebuttal
76
The slide uses a before-after framing to demonstrate the efficacy of CoStar's acquisition strategy.compare_peers
Open slide detailLoop · Benchmark Gap
77
The chart shows a significant spike in Homes.com traffic in Q3 2023 followed by a stabilization.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Benchmark Gap
79
The slide uses highlighting and underlining to draw attention to specific contractual language changes.expose_contradiction
80
The slide uses a callout box to frame the data as 'concerning' due to 'liberal revenue recognition policies'.expose_contradiction
81
The slide uses yellow highlighting to draw attention to the specific language in Zillow's 10-K that allows for management discretion.expose_contradiction
82
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific data points in a table to draw attention to the trend.expose_contradiction
83
The slide highlights the divergence between operating performance and compensation costs.expose_contradiction
84
The table highlights Zillow's high SBC/Adj. EBITDA ratio (115.3%) and SBC/Revenue ratio (23.2%) compared to the peer median.compare_peers
85
The chart uses a red bar to visually distinguish Zillow (Z) from its peers.compare_peers
86
Uses a quote-vs-data structure to highlight management's lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
87
The slide uses qualitative employee feedback to contradict management's compensation strategy.expose_contradiction
88
The slide uses a red box to highlight the significant increase in stock-based compensation from 2017 to 2023.expose_contradiction
89
The slide highlights the discrepancy between reported earnings and earnings adjusted for capital spent on share buybacks.expose_contradiction
90
Uses a callout box to link RSU data to the diluted share count calculation.expose_contradiction
92
Uses a 'Research Interview' format to provide qualitative evidence of management failure.expose_contradiction
93
The slide uses red arrows to connect the SEC filing text regarding the new CFO's age (37) to Korn Ferry's benchmark data showing the average CFO age is 54.diagnose_problem
94
The slide uses a table to highlight long-tenured directors and committee overlaps.name_villain
95
The slide uses a table to break down voting power by share class for specific founders.expose_contradiction
96
Uses direct quotes from Zillow's proxy statement to expose governance weaknesses.expose_contradiction
97
The slide uses a screenshot of an auditor's report to suggest potential accounting concerns.expose_contradiction
99
The slide uses a red box to highlight the discrepancy between historical performance and projected growth/margins.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
100
The slide uses a table of analyst ratings and a pie chart to visualize the lack of bearish sentiment despite negative company news.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
101
The table includes a detailed reconciliation from Adjusted EBITDA to Free Cash Flow.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
102
The slide highlights that Zillow's Adj. EBITDA is heavily impacted by stock-based compensation, arguing for FCF-based valuation.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
103
The slide uses a standard valuation bridge format to derive equity value and share price from enterprise value, adjusted for debt and cash.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory