{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb", "slug": "de028a1085e6", "title": "Zillow Group, Inc. (Z)", "subtitle": "Spruce Point Capital Management · 2024-03", "author": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "date": "2024-03-05 00:00:00", "pageCount": 103, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Zillow Group, Inc.", "targetTicker": "Z", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb", "slug": "de028a1085e6", "title": "Zillow Group, Inc. 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"activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Classic Spruce Point short-seller deck: AI-generated cover image (suited agent + derelict house + rats + 'For Sale' sign) as visual hook, then 100+ pages of dense institutional template. Heavy reliance on a former Zillow Senior Executive interview quoted verbatim across 4 slides (pp.17-20) — a strong rhetorical device that gives the thesis an insider-source feel. Leans on track-record credibility via a prior Spruce Point short (Porch Group) on p.3 before the ToC — 'we've done this before in housing tech.' Uses CEO Rich Barton's 'Oh, my, so much blue ocean' earnings-call quote to mock growth narrative. Thesis combines fraud-exposure (aggressive Flex/IRLC revenue recognition, new Deloitte Critical Audit Matter, CFO departure), structural disruption (NAR verdict + Homes.com), and multiple-rerating (peer comp table p.102). No stake disclosed, as expected for a public short report. Date from filename 3-5-2024 and 3/4/2024 stock price reference on p.102.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "40-60% to $23-$35 vs $57.34 on 3/4/2024", "metric": "Implied downside to share price" }, { "detail": "Zillow 6.2x vs peer average 2.7x", "metric": "EV / 2024E Sales" }, { "detail": "Zillow 36.8x vs peer average 39.4x; Spruce Point applies 25-30x", "metric": "EV / 2024E Free Cash Flow" }, { "detail": "22.0% 2024E vs management 45% long-term target (2025 date retracted)", "metric": "Adjusted EBITDA margin" }, { "detail": "-7.5% 2022, -6.0% 2023; Spruce Point models -5% 2024E", "metric": "Premier Agent revenue growth" }, { "detail": "$451M in 2023 vs $354M cash from operations; ~$1.4B buybacks over 2 years to offset dilution", "metric": "Stock-based compensation" }, { "detail": "Buyer-agent commissions could fall up to 200bps; industry commission TAM down ~30%", "metric": "NAR/MLS commission impact" }, { "detail": "Zillow takes 35-40% of commission; Homes.com could undercut with 20% referral fee", "metric": "Flex economics" }, { "detail": "Expanding from 9 to 40 markets in 2024", "metric": "Enhanced Markets footprint" }, { "detail": "Barton + Frink hold 59.2% of votes via 10-vote Class B shares", "metric": "Co-founder voting control" }, { "detail": "Grew from $62M to $167M 2022-2023; pull-through rate rising despite higher rates", "metric": "Interest rate lock commitments" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell or short Zillow shares at $57.34 — Spruce Point estimates 40-60% downside to a $23-$35 fair value based on 2.5-3.0x 2024E sales and 25-30x 2024E free cash flow.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:50:13+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 149.91202, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Applying peer-adjusted 2.5-3.0x 2024E sales and 25-30x 2024E free cash flow multiples implies a $23-$35 share price versus $57.34, or 40-60% downside, with material further risk if Flex fails to scale or a restatement emerges.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "NAR/MLS verdict will compress buyer-agent commissions ~200bps, hitting 2/3 of Zillow's revenue", "Mature Premier Agent (MBP) saturated; Flex/Enhanced Markets are unproven and add earnings volatility", "Aggressive Flex lead revenue recognition plus CFO departure signal inflated margins and ~6.2x sales multiple is unjustified" ], "scqaSituation": "Zillow is the leading U.S. residential real estate portal (~214M monthly uniques) whose Premier Agent MBP advertising model — ~two-thirds of revenue — monetizes buyer-agent leads by zip code and trades at a ~6.2x sales growth multiple.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point is short Zillow Group (NASDAQ: Z) after a forensic review arguing its Premier Agent MBP model has been flat since 2016, with web traffic decelerating and desirable zip codes long sold out. The October 2023 NAR/Burnett verdict is expected to unbundle buyer-agent commissions and could cut the industry commission TAM by up to 30%, directly hitting two-thirds of Zillow's revenue. Management's pivot to Flex, Enhanced Markets, and a 'Super App' is smoke and mirrors — a former Senior Executive called the app 'a glorified CRM,' Homes.com (CoStar) is a well-capitalized threat, and Flex books revenue when leads are sent, not when they convert, a practice Deloitte now flags as a Critical Audit Matter. With SBC of $451M exceeding cash from operations, dual-class voting control, and a departed CFO, Spruce Point models 40-60% downside to $23-$35.", "primaryDemands": [ "Short Zillow shares; Spruce Point sees 40-60% downside to $23-$35 per share", "Demand additional disclosure: MBP vs Flex revenue split, Enhanced Market conversion rates, pull-through assumptions", "Question aggressive Flex lead-based and IRLC revenue recognition flagged in the new Critical Audit Matter", "Challenge governance: dual-class voting, long-tenured 'good old boys' board, no clawback, nepotism" ], "scqaResolution": "Investors should sell or short Zillow; management must disclose MBP vs Flex revenue, Enhanced Markets conversion rates, mortgage pull-through assumptions, and abandon the unrealistic 45% EBITDA target, while the board reforms its dual-class structure, clawback policy, and long-tenured independents.", "thesisOneLiner": "Zillow's Premier Agent core is saturated, NAR lawsuits will compress commissions, Flex/Super App cannot replace it, and aggressive revenue recognition masks decline — shares worth $23-$35 vs $57.", "precedentsCited": [ "Porch Group (PRCH) — prior Spruce Point housing-tech short, -97% peak decline", "CoStar's disruption of Apartments.com as template for Homes.com attack", "Zillow Offers iBuying failure ($881M 2021 loss)", "Trulia acquisition (2014) — missed 2023 revenue target by $3.7B" ], "scqaComplication": "The October 2023 NAR/Burnett verdict will unbundle and compress buyer-agent commissions, MBP traffic and Premier Agent revenue per visit have been flat since 2016, Flex uses aggressive lead-based revenue recognition, Homes.com is capitalized to undercut on referral fees, and the CFO departed with no clear reason.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 6, 17, 97, 100, 103 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "CoStar Group (CSGP)", "Opendoor (OPEN)", "eXp World (EXPI)", "Redfin (RDFN)", "ReMax (RMAX)", "Porch Group (PRCH)", "Anywhere Real Estate (HOUS)", "TechTarget (TTGT)", "QuinStreet (QNST)", "Expedia (EXPE)", "TripAdvisor (TRIP)", "CarGurus (CARG)", "TrueCar (TRUE)", "Homes.com" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison", "dcf" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "setup", "title": "The image uses a 'villain' framing technique by associating the company with a run-down property and vermin.", "function": "front_matter", "imagePath": "https://imgproxy.kitesheet.com/TEJyES2UxGNioxYSCZMW1YBtZa3oP-Kmk0cSqJCoTME/rs:fit:1200:1200:0/q:82/f:webp/czM6Ly9raXRlc2hlZXQvY29ycHVzL3NsaWRlcy9kZTAyOGExMDg1ZTYvcDAwMS5wbmc", "rawType": "cover", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "cover", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Cover", "slug": "cover", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05f2-729d-9f93-e0504f0a2410", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "front_matter", "functionCanon": { "name": "Front matter", "slug": "front_matter", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-133d-73f0-9e26-201eda96b098", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "sparse", "densityScore": 15, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 145, "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "The image uses a 'villain' framing technique by associating the company with a run-down property and vermin.", "elementsJson": [ "photo", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:54.25+00", "seconds": 6.592, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb/1", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb#slide-1", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-74af5c9e9edb.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Ugh... 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misleading, and all information has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer, or to any other person or entity that was breached by the transmission of information to Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. However, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC recognizes that there may be non-public information in the possession of Zillow or other insiders of Zillow that has not been publicly disclosed by Zillow. Therefore, such information contained herein is presented \"as is,\" without warranty of any kind - whether express or implied. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC makes no other representations, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.3+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8c96c11f-984e-4d08-bcf1-3c5dd58a9934", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "All rights reserved. This document may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or in part without the prior written consent of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.3+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d24dd17b-539e-4940-a557-4e90bf158ac5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.15 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions. You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC (\"SPCM\") (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our subscribers and clients has a short position in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls on the stock) covered herein, including without limitation Zillow Group, Inc. (\"Zillow\") and therefore stand to realize significant gains in the event that the price declines. Following publication of any presentation, report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and Spruce Point Capital Management does not undertake to update this report or any information contained herein. Spruce Point Capital Management, subscribers and/or consultants shall have no obligation to inform any investor or viewer of this report about their historical, current, and future trading activities.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.3+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d644aa7d-7a46-4a06-9f5d-f8bd5952529f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This report's estimated fundamental value only represents a best efforts estimate of the potential fundamental valuation of a specific security, and is not expressed as, or implied as, assessments of the quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor. However, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this presentation serves as the receipt of personalized investment advice from Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is not registered as a broker/dealer or accounting firm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.3+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df67c7af-8793-428d-805b-c722198da442", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "This research presentation expresses our research opinions, which we have based upon interpretation of certain facts and observations, all of which are based upon publicly available information, and all of which are set out in this research presentation. Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. There can be no assurance that any statement, information, projection, estimate, or assumption made reference to directly or indirectly in this presentation will be realized or accurate. Any forecasts, estimates, and examples are for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as limitations of the minimum or maximum possible loss, gain, or outcome. Any information contained in this report may include forward looking statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections. You should assume these types of statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections may turn out to be incorrect for reasons beyond Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's control. This is not investment or accounting advice nor should it be construed as such. Use of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC's research is at your own risk. 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However, whether the pitch is growing Zillow's share of transactions from 3% to 6% or growing its percentage of TTV from 8 bps, we think it is all smoke and mirrors. We believe management would like investors to believe that Zillow can quickly disrupt the deeply entrenched and competitive real estate marketplace. Spruce Point believes it will be a very difficult and risky process given Zillow faces very significant near-term and long-term headwinds which will likely ultimately curtail its diversification and growth efforts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.368+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3dbd3be6-611d-4953-bbd4-2442d854f4bd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.71 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes the multiple NAR/MLS class action lawsuits will ultimately have a significant negative impact on Zillow's core Premier Agent business. On October 31, 2023 a federal jury reached a verdict in Burnett et al. v. National Association of Realtors, et al., finding the defendants guilty of conspiring to inflate commissions paid to real estate agents; defendants were ordered to pay damages of $1.8 billion. Some brokerages have already settled and the DOJ is involved in the conversation and appears to lean towards decoupling commissions. In fact, just recently the U.S. DOJ asked a federal judge in Boston to reject a consumer settlement that it said fails to protect home buyers and sellers from industry practices that allegedly artificially inflate real estate broker fees.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.368+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b9c27888-0fc3-4155-90e0-26fae84f23e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.31, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Zillow's core business model is the market-based pricing (\"MBP\") product it sells in its Premier Agent business, which has existed since 2008. Key indicators show Zillow is experiencing a rapid decline in web traffic, which is the foundation for the Premier Agent business. Zillow has seen a sharp deceleration in both site visitors and unique users; additionally, Zillow's measure of its ability to monetize traffic, Premier Agent Revenue Per Visit, has essentially been flat since 2016. Zillow is the go-to website/app for residential real estate search but our research indicates its core revenue model is saturated in selected markets meaning all the desirable zip codes across the U.S. are sold out and there is very little interest shown by agents for the less desirable ones. 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In other words, home sellers would no longer be on the hook for paying both the listing and buyer agent commission, setting the stage for a situation where home buyers would have to contract with their agents directly, which may lead to agents offering lower rates to be competitive, reducing their revenue and in turn the amounts they are willing to spend on Zillow services. While the verdict is being appealed, our analysis indicates it is likely that the status quo real estate commission structure will be dismantled, causing buyer agent commissions to compress. Early analysis indicates agent commissions could fall as much as 200bps and that the overall industry commission TAM could be reduced by as much as 30%. Spruce Point believes this will have a dramatic impact to Zillow as two-thirds of Zillow’s revenue comes from its Premier Agent program, which has significant exposure to the advertising budgets of agents representing home buyers. Spruce Point agrees with management that these lawsuits will take years to settle but we believe any share gains in their diversification plan will be entirely offset by overall share losses in TTV related to commission compression.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.045+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "166cb77d-e787-4d32-a233-1cb1527de333", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Zillow’s new growth initiative/diversification is Flex/Enhanced Markets and the Housing Super App strategy. Zillow Flex was introduced in 2018 as an alternative revenue model to its MBP model. In the current MBP model, buyer agents can either purchase ad space on Zillow home listings and/or pay for leads by zip code. We believe the MBP model is saturated in selected markets as either the zip codes are sold out with waiting lists or there is very limited to no demand for the remaining sub-tier zip codes.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.045+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3b71d8cb-e5eb-491d-bb5c-6a9db702df19", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While some may believe Zillow’s share price is tied to interest rates, Spruce Point does not believe that to be true. Again, two-thirds of revenue comes from Premier Agent which is mostly MBP to date. According to our research, the most desirable zip codes have been sold out for years. If rates come down that does not guarantee MBP revenue is going to go up. 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Spruce Point’s research indicates there is a lot of friction with MBP and Flex models co-existing.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:29:14.656+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8f10c878-b63a-433d-99fd-580bed5d3b56", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Introduced in 2022, Enhanced Markets are Flex only, which we believe alienates ~90% of Premier Agents paying MBP in those zip codes/markets. Spruce Point believes the Enhanced Market adds significant revenue and earnings volatility to Zillow’s business.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:29:14.656+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a38a3b31-90c6-4416-a489-b1ae7abd0a9a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Under the Flex model, Zillow works with a select group of Premier Agents and brokerages, sending them real estate leads for free with the condition that the agent or firm will share 35% to 40% of the commission with Zillow.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:29:14.656+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a5f99b48-11cf-4d0f-b5e2-dcd14c9733cf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary (Cont'd)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-17 03:29:14.656+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ee0ee190-0401-4f49-919a-fad2168c4a8c", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "Complication", "beatId": "41072135-1487-41b4-a046-fb8cc35f95b6", "matchId": "b3bb054d-0d52-4162-825a-8d47aa0db226", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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Flex partners are required to use Zillow's CRM so Zillow should know exactly what the conversion rates are for each Flex partner and for the entire Enhanced Market. If the conversion rates were compelling, Spruce Point believes Zillow would be disclosing these metrics, but they are not. Again, Zillow stated they would update the number of customer transactions but have pulled back on that promise. The new 2024 investor presentation speaks to significant growth in customer transactions in the early test markets of Atlanta and Phoenix but have those markets been revenue accretive from the MBP model? Management has not disclosed this vital detail.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.874+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2f388a23-67e6-48d9-9124-d032d3a09bff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe that the best brokerage firms and agents do not need to rely on Zillow for buyer leads. It is also a very expensive proposition for agents to become Flex partners. Typically, real estate agents split ~50% of their commission with their brokerage firm. For example, on a $500k home the buyer agent would typically earn a 2.5% commission or $12,500. Zillow is now taking 35-40% of the commission, therefore, net to the agent after the brokerage firm split is ~$4,000. If the agent is part of a team there is another revenue share; the ~$4,000 commission shrinks even further.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.874+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "389c242a-5f32-4d35-a24f-0a6318550238", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes a very large part of the success to this strategy falls outside of Zillow's control unless it builds a large support team to train and partner with Flex agents to increase the conversion rates. This in turn could significantly increase Zillow's operating costs and the profitability of the Flex or Enhanced Market model.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.874+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "50a4f553-7928-4014-bb99-7e583cb21ef5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Zillow is also pitching its Housing Super App or \"Five Growth Pillars\": financing, touring, seller solutions, enhancing partnerships, and integrating services. A former senior Zillow employee we spoke with called the Super App a glorified CRM and a former Zillow Senior Executive called it a bit of an eye roll or oversell. 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We do not know if the mortgage business lost more money in 2023 because Zillow stopped disclosing Operating Income/(Loss) by segment. In addition, Spruce Point’s research suggests Zillow is pushing cross-selling of mortgages onto its Flex partners, which increases business risk as it must comply with the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (“RESPA”).(1) By default, Zillow pre-checks the box “I want pre-approval information from Zillow Home Loans” or “I want financing information” which forces consumers to opt-out rather than opt-in. Spruce Point interviewed a legal expert familiar with the CFPB’s enforcement practices. According to the source, while Zillow may have some defenses that it complies with RESPA, the CFPB has been very interested in these digital “Dark Patterns” which default consumers into granting something they may not want. 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In addition, Spruce Point believes Zillow’s fully remote work policy will only increase the likelihood of execution failures. The former Senior Executive opined, “The single biggest risk factor for Zillow is employee malaise.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.383+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d54b0a3-d90e-4608-aadd-4511f3b29d0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "If the Enhanced Markets ultimately fail, we believe it is going to be extremely difficult for Zillow to rebuild the relationships with the ~90% of former Premier Agents the program may alienate, therefore potentially impairing the business model that built Zillow. Even if Zillow can regain the lost MBP revenue, we believe the Company is back to a mature, slow growth business that should trade at a significant discount to current multiples.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:52.383+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f9a6b682-b8ed-4148-8817-cc9bbbdda092", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“The single biggest risk factor for Zillow is employee malaise.” — Former Senior Executive", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc6-e5a4bbc75675", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) CFPB investigation.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Zillow is amongst the most aggressive users of SBC in the public market... 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We believe the market hasn't fully come to grips with the ramifications of the NAR/MLS lawsuits, which we expect will be a net negative for Zillow as real estate commissions compress thereby lowering the amount agents may be willing to spend on Zillow services. However, even if there is no impact from the lawsuits, we believe Zillow's core MBP model will continue to be pressured given its maturity. Spruce Point believes lower interest rates will not boost Premier Agent revenue in the near-term. If and when Flex/Enhanced Markets come online then that associated revenue will be more interest rate-driven. We believe none of Zillow's growth initiatives are likely to solve its business issues especially with growing pressure from Homes.com. We believe its Flex program, Enhanced Markets and the Super App will not provide the incremental growth necessary to support its ~6.2x revenue multiple. By retracting its $5 billion 2025 revenue target, Zillow effectively lowered its 2024 revenue forecast yet sell-side analysts collectively increased their consensus price target to $60.14 per share, implying 5% upside. Spruce Point believes there is a big disconnect and estimates 40% - 60% downside, or $23 - $35/share, based on 2.5x – 3.0x and 25x – 30x our estimate for 2024 sales and free cash flow. We expect Zillow to significantly underperform the real estate, software and technology indices.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:58.313+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "480dcfd8-b17e-4e35-ba23-0023dc8a45d0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point has serious concerns with Zillow's governance and shareholder alignment. Through ownership of the Company's 10-1 voting Class B shares, co-founders Rich Barton and Lloyd Fink have voting control. In the aftermath of the Zillow Offers disaster, ~$8 billion of shareholder value was destroyed and executives came away largely unscathed. In fact, executives received base salary increases and additional stock awards every year since 2016. Executive compensation is not tied to financial performance and Zillow does not have any formal clawback policy that would enable the Company to recoup compensation given to executives in the event of a financial restatement. Spruce Point believes the voting control paired with exceptionally long tenured directors has effectively turned the Company's Board into a \"good old boys club\"; four of Zillow's seven independent directors have been on the Board since 2005. On January 9, 2024, Zillow appointed William Gurley back to the Board after serving from 2005-2015. 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Zillow is attuned to it from having fought that last battle and won kind of just barely.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:13+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc7-3018cadbf560", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "That's exactly right. 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}, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:53.26+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d3f7d801-a7eb-47aa-a9c6-0b3eab2f89ac", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe Zillow’s legacy MBP model will not be able to provide the growth necessary to support the Company’s premium valuation, even in a scenario where there is zero impact from the MLS/NAR lawsuits.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", 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10-K and Q1'23 10-Q regarding segment definitions", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:58.874+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6b0570c7-948c-4286-8415-082a7b2d1203", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Premier Agent Revenue: $286.3", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, 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The influential National Association of Realtors and several brokerages were ordered to pay damages to home sellers who said they were forced to pay excessive fees to real estate agents. It's a decision that has the potential to rewrite the entire structure of the real estate industry in the United States, lowering the cost of moving homes by reducing commissions. Under a N.A.R. rule, a home seller is required to pay commissions to the agent representing the buyer, which sellers claimed forced them to pay excessive fees to the agents. The home sellers said the brokerages collaborated with N.A.R. to enforce what is called the “cooperative compensation rule.” But under the verdict, the sellers would no longer be required to pay their buyers' agents, and agents would be free to set their own commission rates, which could be slashed in half or less. 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Antitrust watchdogs at the Dept. of Justice (“DOJ”) have been conducting their own years-long investigation into the practice of agent cooperative compensation.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:56.59+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b3b7143d-4ccb-489b-9114-f21c8d7b9acf", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe if federal regulators get involved, they would most likely push for a prohibition on compensation cooperation altogether.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-758adb755127", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.58, "x": 0.21, "y": 0.355 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The United States has significant concerns with the planned rule changes under the Proposed Settlement. Evidence from other multiple listing services suggests that merely tweaking a buyer-broker commission rule to allow zero-percent commissions does little to “unfetter a market from anti-competitive conduct and ‘pry open to competition a market that has been closed by defendants’ illegal restraints.’” Ford Motor Co. v. United States, 405 U.S. 562, 577–78 (1972) (quoting Int’l Salt Co. v. United States, 332 U.S. 392, 401 (1947)). To the contrary, rules such as those presented may merely perpetuate an antitrust violation through slightly modified means: MLS PIN’s proposed rule changes still establish an elaborate protocol (under penalty of sanction) regulating buyer-broker commissions, including requiring the listing broker to initially set the “total amount of compensation offered” (including the number zero) in the listing. 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"canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-2911ed20412c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Analysis from Keefe Bruyette & Woods suggests that if commission cooperation were eliminated, as many of 80% of real estate agents 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Their analysis determined that the industry’s $100 billion annual commission pool could be reduced by as much as 30% and agent commissions could decline by as much 200 bps or more with most analysis suggesting that agents who focus on home-buyers will be disproportionately impacted relative to selling agents. Ultimately, we believe this would have a dramatic impact to Zillow’s business as two-thirds of the Company’s revenue is driven by the advertising budgets of buyer agents and the Flex model is based on receiving a commission split.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:58.338+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8e015afc-3cb6-4175-8dc5-e38490bbba54", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.84, "x": 0.08, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "3) Ultimately, buyers don’t believe they are getting great value from their agents, according to the 1000watt survey. 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That would be a financial blowback to them. Because to answer your question on the dynamics in the beginning with Flex, it was a big win-win for me. I stopped paying $50,000 a month out of my account in exchange for only closing four or five deals a month with them. And if you ran the numbers on that, I mean I was really winning on that in the beginning.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:57.88+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "119f3344-9466-491a-b83d-3552a1b6cc81", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Plus I think they don't want to make the whole switch over all at once. That would be a financial blowback to them. 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So if they take 30%, they're obviously you can do math there pretty quickly of a 3% buyer side agent commission, they're making a lot more on that lead. Now that's under the assumption though that the agent is able to convert those leads. So there's give or take, there's a bunch of leads that they're not going to charge for that an agent won't convert. So let's just say if the conversion rate is 3%, they're sending a hundred leads out, maybe only three or four of those will convert. And so then they have to say, okay, should I give up that cost per lead up front there versus the hopes that they'll convert like at a three, four, 5% and then we get the margins here on the backend and have a lift in revenue or do we have a security blanket and charge up front? That's kind of where the debate has been. So to go roll out a bunch of markets, which is why we took a massive step back, it's like Zillow would've been not profitable for a very long time to be able to not only flip these markets, get these agents, identify the top agents that actually can convert, get these agents to convert with the lack of inventory on the market, wait for these leads to actually convert. So that could take nine to 12 plus months in this type of market because everyone's bidding on the same homes. And then when that happens, it's like wait for that escrow and then get that check. And then that's all under the assumption and the hope that these agents are updating the app and it's being truthful and all the things that we need them to do to be able to make this work.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:58.117+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "23d7fc6a-b70a-48d0-8a20-94f7eaf88a86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.0025 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Could you talk a little bit about the economics between Flex and MBP and what disruptions, if any, there would've been from changing over to Flex and then ultimately was Flex a lift to revenue over the long-term or was it more of a breakeven business?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:58.117+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "675998e3-86eb-42f4-b7fb-359acf32405b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "So to go roll out a bunch of markets, which is why we took a massive step back, it's like Zillow would've been not profitable for a very long time to be able to not only flip these markets, get these agents, identify the top agents that actually can convert, get these agents to convert with the lack of inventory on the market, wait for these leads to actually convert. — Former Senior Zillow Employee", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:20+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-c66be55e4651", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.18, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Interview", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We believe Zillow is walking a very fine line and our research indicates that it will be difficult for the two models to coexist in the long run.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:20+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adc9-dee464ab922a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It seems Zillow’s management believes Flex and MBP can coexist in the same markets. 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You're looking at this massive hole of leads that need to get worked. And the problem in this model is those agents that are good, that 10% they are referring to in every market, they can't handle more leads because they don't have enough good agents underneath them on their teams to support the leads that are coming in to be able to help convert. So it's actually a double-edged sword. You give this a year or two, you identify the good agents, you're like, okay, here's the people that we're going to send the leads to, they're converting, we want to send more leads to them. Now they're telling us we don't have agents on our team to support it. Pause, we can't handle the leads. And what does Zillow do now? 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Our research indicates it would take a very large sales force / training program to help assist Flex partners in converting leads and building a consistently profitable business. 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The only thing that they shared with us is that Charlotte Market has 4,790 hand raises in the month of July. So if you just use a number of 4,000 hand raisers a month looking for an agent to reach out at one of their busiest markets, you take it down to a much smaller market where they're only getting one to two thousand a month. I think they start backing out, okay, well if he's got a low number here, probably the best thing to do is just do the market pricing and just sell it outright. I do think that's very profitable for them and they've been profitable with that over the years.\" — Zillow Flex Agent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:23+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adca-aa310e0de5f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "(1) “There Are Just Way Too Many Real Estate Agents Right Now—And It’s Hurting the Industry,” Biggerpockets.com", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Charlotte is an Enhanced Market which means it was converted entirely to Flex. According to the agent, prior to the switch to Flex there were 300 MBP or Premier Agents. There are now 30 Flex partners. According to the agent there were approximately 4,700 leads distributed to the Flex partners in July ‘23. We estimate conversion rates need to be 10-12% to breakeven from a revenue perspective. Redfin recently reported 5.5% conversion rates (see below). In addition, an article from Follow Up Boss (acquired by Zillow in Nov. ‘23) has the national conversion rate at 0.4% to 1.2%. While we can recognize some teams may achieve higher conversion rates, consistently achieving 10%+ seems like a big stretch. We believe Zillow should disclose conversion rates for each Enhanced Market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:04.849+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3bcf36ab-2122-4083-8480-17cdec434987", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Throughout the year, demand largely met or exceeded our expectations, but closed sales haven’t. From 2017 to 2022, between 6.3% and 7.2% of the people who contacted Redfin or our partner agents had closed a sale with us by this point in the year. In 2023, that number is 5.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:04.849+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0c15e943-3184-44dd-ad4a-deed6241c11e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Throughout the year, demand largely met or exceeded our expectations, but closed sales haven't. From 2017 to 2022, between 6.3% and 7.2% of the people who contacted Redfin or our partner agents had closed a sale with us by this point in the year. 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The program is a similar 40% commission split for Redfin-sourced leads. Redfin provides its CRM, which is similar to Zillow's Super App. Redfin acquired Bay Equity Home Loans in 2022 which is its mortgage business. Q4'23 earnings call: Redfin's CEO said \"In May, we plan to expand Redfin Next to seven more markets, out of more than 100 Redfin markets total. With the expansion, Next will reach markets that accounted for about a third of Redfin's 2023 brokerage revenues. 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This is another competitive threat to Zillow for attracting and retaining talent.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:28:59.857+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "991e3f44-05a0-43b9-b9e6-f0016405528f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"We're not aiming to make much money on agents' self-sourced sales, as few traditional brokers have ever earned a decent margin; our goal is to recruit agents who can close Redfin-sourced sales at a high rate. 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Its new 2024 investor presentation eliminates these metrics. The Mortgage business lost $214 million from 2020 to 2022. Zillow stopped disclosing Operating Income/(Loss) for the Mortgage segment in 2023, but considering the economic backdrop, Spruce Point believes it is more than likely the Mortgage business experienced another year of losses. Zillow recently acquired a new title business, but its prior attempts at building a title business have failed, so we are bearish on the opportunity. Seller Services is in its infancy as they try to get more seller listings on the website. Homes.com is also building a seller listing business. 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suggest that Zillow Home Loans has never been competitive with incumbent options.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adcb-68e69b7801e2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our conversations with real estate brokers suggest that Zillow Home Loans has never been competitive with incumbent options. Our checks suggest real estate agents have preferred lenders they do most of their business with, and Zillow is unlikely to disrupt this network as it has been built on relationships that have existed for a very long time.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.609+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "54cd6815-8b47-42dc-9fb7-751cc69924e2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I still feel at this point the local lenders run circles around them.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.609+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "298854b5-60c9-4a2c-99ea-84b65967b345", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.37 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So still probably a little premature to tell what the actual conversion rate on that should be. I think everyone's kind of still figuring out what's the best way to facilitate that. At the end of the day, the consumer's always in control. We'll work with whoever the consumer wants. I think some of the friction points that came out immediately when Zillow launched ZHL, there was two, one, they didn't understand the importance of the personal relationship between the agent and the loan officer. I think they construed in their plan as insignificant, when in reality it's massively significant simply because you've got an agent that is going to invest tons of weekends, nights in doing tours, showings, getting people into property. Some buyers will look at 60, 70, 80 properties before they make a decision. It's labor intensive. It's heavy. And so the agent wants to know for sure that when we go through this process, assuming that the buyer needs a loan, which 90% of them do that, all of their work that they've put in is not going to get destroyed because the loan officer screws up the loan.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.609+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d495734-1c49-42ca-ad2f-552a0eaacad3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And there's a lot of nationwide outfits that promote themselves as rocket mortgage, push button get loan. That is not how it works. It'll be a long time before that actually is the reality. There's so many guidelines and buy boxes that have to be fed choices, that have to be made, timelines that have to be hit, that agents are just, they're super, super sensitive and super aware of who the loan officer is and the personal relationship in person, face-to-face, nose to nose relationship is of utmost importance. That's how a loan officer has built businesses is that relationship. And so I think when ZHL launched, they thought, well, we'll just do it from Seattle and we'll just have a bunch of loan officers, and as long as they're good on the phone, it'll be fine. And it's not fine at all.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.609+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b14620cf-03bc-4929-b857-31673dab4f2d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I think some of the friction points that came out immediately when Zillow launched ZHL, there was two, one, they didn't understand the importance of the personal relationship between the agent and the loan officer. — Real Estate Agent", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adcb-6d12b61a5062", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Research", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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I believe we will be able to report even stronger traffic numbers in the near future.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ca65837-31bc-4889-80ff-7265d54b238e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We've conducted dozens of focus groups... We heard loud and clear that brokers, agents, sellers, buyers and investors all dislike, real estate portals that use agents listings as baked to drill in homebuyers and then sell them off to other agents as leads with exorbitant commission splits.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4091a36a-0d1d-427f-97d9-7f499d993df1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "During the course of the year, we will be in the Olympics, the Oscars, the Emmy's, March Madness, the U.S. Open, the Stanley Cup playoffs, Major League Baseball and much more. We believe that we will generate approximately 80 billion impressions for Homes.com and reach 90% of U.S. households with our message in 2024.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:02.56+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9517d705-97e7-4202-8742-981adb182314", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Homes.com was the fastest-growing real estate website at the end of '23 with over 600% year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter... 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We heard loud and clear that brokers, agents, sellers, buyers and investors all dislike, real estate portals that use agents listings as baked to drill in homebuyers and then sell them off to other agents as leads with exorbitant commission splits.\" — CoStar CEO, Q4'23 Earnings Call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adcb-a177f4663e92", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: CoStar Q4'23 earnings call transcript.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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As we did when we launched the new LoopNet, the new Apartments.com, we deployed the entire CoStar Group sales force to sell Homes.com.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:03.193+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9a32d68c-f69b-4645-af8f-d33afac7ef1f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.145, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.685 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We also have agents with just a listing or so signing up at price points of only $100 to $200 a month. It doesn't matter if you're an agent with a large portfolio or a small portfolio. Either way, we're charging a small fraction of the serious ridiculously high 30% to 40% of commissions being charged by Zillow and Realtor.com to agents. We have only demoed 0.02% of the agents out there at this point. If we maintain this pace, we could sell around $200 million in annual reoccurring revenue in our first 12 months of selling.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:03.193+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dacd3ad4-ddb5-4b55-b1c1-47fd69ad465c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.345 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Our 1,000-plus person sales force gives us instant national reach with experienced salespeople that live in many of the very same neighborhoods as the 1.5 million residential property agents that we intend to reach. We trained the full sales team in January and rolled out very attractive incentive structures that reward our sellers to sell both homes and their primary brands like CoStar or apartments with -- along with homes. The more they sell of both brands combined the more money they make.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:03.193+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f096d791-a5d8-4614-93dc-91c875e3768e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Either way, we're charging a small fraction of the serious ridiculously high 30% to 40% of commissions being charged by Zillow and Realtor.com to agents.\" — CoStar Group CEO", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:44:27+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-3f42-76f3-adcb-da969275c8fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: CoStar Q4'23 earnings call transcript.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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It is not uncommon for home buyers to have multiple interest rate lock commitments from several banks and/or vendors. In addition, not all potential home buyers close on a home and/or loan especially in the current market environment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:04.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99107e3d-d886-434e-993a-bf57d3939149", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Mortgages. Mortgages revenue primarily includes revenue generated by Zillow Home Loans, our affiliated mortgage lender, and marketing products sold to mortgage professionals on a cost per lead basis, including our Custom Quote and Connect services.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:04.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "23377fe5-2c7c-46e9-abb6-b4ed2a00d816", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Interest rate lock commitments — The fair value of IRLCs is calculated by reference to quoted prices in secondary markets for commitments to sell mortgage loans with similar characteristics. Expired commitments are excluded from the fair value measurement. Since not all IRLCs will become closed loans, we adjust our fair value measurements for the estimated amount of IRLCs that will not close. This adjustment is effected through the pull-through rate, which represents the probability that an IRLC will ultimately result in a closed loan. For IRLCs that are cancelled or expire, any recorded gain or loss is reversed at the end of the commitment period (Level 3).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:29:04.189+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b6c258da-c40e-44b0-95e1-6bc880aade6d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Mortgage Origination Revenue. Mortgage origination revenue generated by Zillow Home Loans reflects origination fees on purchase or refinance mortgages and the corresponding sale, or expected future sale, of a loan. When an interest rate lock commitment is made to a customer, we record the expected gain on sale of the mortgage, plus the estimated earnings from the expected sale of the associated servicing rights, adjusted for a pull-through percentage (which represents the probability that an interest rate lock commitment will ultimately result in a closed loan), as revenue. Judgment is required to determine the appropriate pull-through rate, which is estimated based on expected changes in market conditions, loan stage and historical borrower behavior. 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EBITDA growth since 2017 is comprised entirely of stock-based compensation. Zillow adds back stock-based compensation to Adj. EBITDA as a non-cash cost but uses cash to repurchase stock from dilution. Therefore, we do not believe that Adj. 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