2020 Benedict Evans 2020 December The Great Unbundling

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 12 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 10
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Deck intelligence map

5
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

134
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
02
summarize
03
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
04
The chart uses a dual-color area fill to distinguish between positive growth (grey) and negative decline (red).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
05
The chart illustrates the 'pull-forward' effect of the pandemic on digital adoption.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
06
The chart uses a stacked bar format to visualize the composition of retail sales over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
07
The chart illustrates a sudden, significant spike in adoption, likely attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
08
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
09
Data source: Ofcom. The chart compares pre-lockdown (Feb 2020) vs. mid-lockdown (May 2020) usage.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
10
The slide uses a simple three-circle layout to contrast two strategic approaches and a set of critical unknowns.present_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
11
The chart illustrates a sharp decline in employment across all three sectors in 2020.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
12
The slide uses two stacked bar charts to segment business travel volume by frequency and duration.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
13
The slide uses a simple visual metaphor of circles to represent companies in a growing market.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
14
The chart uses a waterfall format to aggregate supply from various pharmaceutical companies.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
15
The slide uses a simple three-circle layout to present core themes.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
16
transition
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
17
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
18
The slide uses a simple visual layout to highlight four key areas of disruption.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
19
The chart illustrates the historical growth of ecommerce as a small slice of total US retail revenue.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
20
decompose_segments
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
21
The chart categorizes retail sectors into 'Could be parcels', 'Could be custom delivered or collected', and 'Can't be delivered (?)'.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
22
The chart uses a stacked bar approach to show the ecommerce component within Parcels, Delivery & collection, and Cars.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
23
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
24
The chart highlights that while general ecommerce is dominated by parcel shipping, food retail relies significantly more on delivery and collection models.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
25
The chart highlights the growth of delivery spending relative to traditional dining channels.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
26
The chart shows a clear divergence and rapid growth in delivery employment relative to warehousing in the final year of the dataset.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
27
The chart highlights the significant acceleration in revenue growth in recent years.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
28
The chart uses a stacked bar format to show the total retail market split by delivery type, with ecommerce as a subset.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
29
The chart segments US retail into 'Could be parcels' and 'Could be custom delivered or collected', with Amazon's revenue shown as a small slice of the former.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
30
The slide uses a stacked bar chart to illustrate the difference between 'parcels' and 'custom delivered or collected' retail models.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Myth Buster
31
The chart illustrates the shift in Amazon's business model towards a marketplace platform.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
32
The chart illustrates the trend of Chinese suppliers bypassing traditional intermediaries to sell directly to end customers via platforms like Amazon.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
33
The final bar for 2020 is segmented by quarter (Q1, Q2, Q3).quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
34
The slide uses a simple visual contrast (grey vs red circles) to highlight the shift in market dynamics.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
35
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
36
The chart shows a clear crossover point around 2009-2010 where 'Best' overtook 'Cheap' in search interest.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
37
compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
38
The chart highlights L'Oreal as having the highest ecommerce penetration among the listed companies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
39
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
40
The slide uses a simple comparison framework to highlight the shifting cost structures in retail.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
41
The slide uses a simple flow diagram to contrast 'Logistics' and 'Discovery' as the two primary drivers of customer reach costs.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
42
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
43
The chart illustrates the decline in total advertising spend relative to GDP, despite the rise of internet advertising.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
44
The chart highlights the dominance of Search, Amazon, and Facebook in the US online ad market.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
45
The chart uses a stacked bar format to contrast the composition of online vs offline advertising revenue.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
46
The chart highlights the 2020 data point in red.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
47
The image is a cultural reference to advertising, used here to add gravitas to the strategic questions posed in the deck.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
48
Uses a simple linear process flow to describe the industry shift.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
49
The chart shows how ad spend is eroded by various intermediaries (Agency, DSP, Demand side tech, Unknown, SSP, Supply side tech) before reaching the publisher.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
50
The slide uses a simple three-column layout with circular containers to contrast the capabilities of different market participants.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
51
The slide highlights a shift in marketing strategy from external endorsements to founder-led brand building.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Myth Buster
52
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
53
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
54
The chart uses color to distinguish between legacy media companies (dark grey) and new entrants (red).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
55
The chart highlights the shift in media consumption habits among young adults, specifically the growth of streaming services relative to traditional live TV.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
56
The red arrow indicates the magnitude of the swing from negative cash flow in 2019 to positive in 2020.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
57
The chart illustrates the unbundling of geographic rights and the cable model.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
58
The chart uses stacked bars for 2017-2020, implying a comparison of two segments or services, while Disney+ is shown as a single red bar.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
59
The chart illustrates Disney's market share growth, culminating in them surpassing all other studios combined in 2019.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
60
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · The Reveal
61
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to explain the 'unbundling' phenomenon.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · The Reveal
62
This is a classic 'provocation' slide used to reframe industry boundaries.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · The Reveal
63
The chart highlights the massive scale of consumer spending compared to other sectors.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · The Reveal
64
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
65
The chart shows relative proportions of spending categories; the total value is stated as $50bn (likely a typo in the original slide, as global consumer spendinsize_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
66
The slide uses a visual metaphor of a circle representing the first 20 years of tech, pointing towards a stacked bar chart representing global consumer spendingsummarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pivot
67
The slide uses a stacked bar chart representing 'Global consumer spending' as a central anchor for two different eras of tech.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pivot
68
The chart highlights Tesla's valuation relative to the traditional automotive sector.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pivot
69
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pivot
70
The slide uses a simple visual layout with three circles to present key considerations.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pivot
71
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
72
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
73
The chart highlights the significant cost reduction of Solar PV compared to wind energy sources over the decade.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
74
The chart illustrates the transition of renewable energy from a 'science project' to a competitive product.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
75
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
76
The chart highlights sectors where technology is actively changing emissions profiles (Power generation, Auto, Other transport) in red/pink, contrasting with otanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
77
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
78
The chart uses color (red) to distinguish SpaceX vehicles from legacy launch providers.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
79
The chart illustrates the 'AI boom' by tracking attendance across six major conferences (NeurIPS, CVPR, IJCAI, AAAI, IROS, ICML).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
80
The slide uses a visual example to demonstrate the realism of generative AI (specifically StyleGAN).illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
81
The chart illustrates the rapid adoption of machine learning techniques in biological research.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
82
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
83
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
84
The slide uses a simple visual layout with three circles representing different thematic lenses.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
85
The chart shows the historical GDP trajectory of the USA and China, highlighting China's rapid growth.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
86
The slide highlights the contrast between the 1980s 'Japan Panic' and the current economic landscape.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
87
The chart highlights China's exponential growth in consumer electronics exports, surpassing Japan and South Korea significantly.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
88
The chart highlights China's rapid growth in AI research output, surpassing the USA and approaching Europe.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
89
The chart illustrates the relative citation impact of AI research across three major regions, highlighting the USA's lead and subsequent decline, and China's stanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
90
The slide uses a rhetorical question to frame the geopolitical risk of supply chain dependency.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
91
The slide highlights the discrepancy between domestic dominance and global market presence/supply chain integration.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
92
The chart illustrates the limited success of Chinese semiconductor policy as of 2018.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
93
The chart illustrates that despite a decade of policy focus, China's semiconductor market share remains low, growing from ~1.3% to ~4.4%.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
94
The chart illustrates a shift in technology adoption within the Chinese smartphone manufacturing sector.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
95
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Tale Two Worlds
96
The chart highlights the scale of the Chinese market relative to Western regions.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
97
The slide highlights the scale of the Chinese market relative to Western markets.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
98
The slide uses a simple circular layout to contrast the US 'vertical category winners' model with the Chinese 'conglomerates compete on everything' model.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
99
The slide illustrates the scale of major ecommerce platforms in 2020.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
100
The chart illustrates the rapid adoption of fintech in China, effectively bypassing traditional payment infrastructure.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
101
The chart illustrates the massive scale difference between Chinese delivery platforms and international counterparts.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
102
The slide uses a simple process flow to explain the diffusion of innovation from Chinese super-apps to global platforms.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
103
The chart highlights the massive scale of smartphone users in China and India compared to the rest of the world.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
104
The chart uses color to distinguish between the USA and other top markets.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
105
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
106
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
107
The slide uses a 'Jio effect' subtitle to attribute the market shift in India.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
108
The chart displays a clear power-law distribution among the top Indian startups.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
109
quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
110
The chart highlights the growth trajectory of Mercado Libre in the Latin American market.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
111
The chart illustrates the rapid acceleration of unicorn creation in Europe over the last decade.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
112
The slide uses a famous quote by William Gibson: 'The future is here, but it's unevenly distributed'.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pattern Hunter
113
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
114
The chart illustrates the exponential growth of technology adoption over four decades.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
115
This slide uses a visual metaphor to represent the political and social climate at the beginning of 2021.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
116
This is a slide from a Benedict Evans presentation deck.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
117
The slide uses a bubble chart layout to represent the breadth of issues, with varying sizes and colors indicating relative importance or focus.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
118
The chart highlights the scale of market leaders in winner-takes-most markets.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
119
The chart demonstrates a significant upward trend in startup creation despite potential market concerns.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
120
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to illustrate historical patterns of technological adoption and subsequent regulation.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
121
Uses a simple visual decomposition to challenge a monolithic view of regulation.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
122
The slide uses a decomposition approach to challenge the monolithic view of automotive regulation.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
123
The slide uses a historical photo sequence to argue that systemic urban planning is a public sector responsibility, not a corporate one.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
124
The slide uses a circular layout to contrast historical regulatory outcomes with current regulatory questions.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
125
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
126
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Precedent
127
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Implications
128
The slide uses a vintage advertisement as a rhetorical device to highlight the 'death of innovation' in the airline industry.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
129
The slide contrasts the high cost of historical air travel with the massive growth in volume over time.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
130
The chart uses a dual-axis approach to correlate increasing volume with decreasing risk.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
131
The chart illustrates the decoupling of travel volume and safety risk, highlighting improvements in vehicle safety and efficiency.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
132
Uses a simple process flow to contrast the focus on 'how things work' versus 'what happens when everyone has them'.transition
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
133
The slide uses a series of S-curves to represent the diffusion of technology across different segments of society.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
134
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Implications