David Einhorn · conference-presentation
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
92 pages · 5 arc beats · 4 loops
Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
David Einhorn · 2015-05 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 4 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
5 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 92 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem (Identify pain) 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 38 hits — 0/10 slides
20% 2/10 slides 20% 2/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides — 0/10 slides
Agitate (Make it worse) 20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides · 103 hits — 0/20 slides
25% 5/20 slides 20% 4/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 55% 11/20 slides Solution (Provide relief) 30 slides 100% 30/30 slides 100% 30/30 slides · 171 hits — 0/30 slides
50% 15/30 slides 33.3% 10/30 slides 100% 30/30 slides 70% 21/30 slides Evidence & Proof 20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides · 96 hits — 0/20 slides
30% 6/20 slides · 8 hits 10% 2/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 55% 11/20 slides Impact & Next Steps 12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 55 hits — 0/12 slides
100% 12/12 slides — 0/12 slides
100% 12/12 slides — 0/12 slides
Slide inventory
92 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Includes a personal congratulatory note from the presenter to the conference organizers.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
02
Includes a specific note about endnotes being available on the website.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
03
The slide uses a narrative case study to draw a parallel to the current topic.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
04
The slide uses a cartoon as a rhetorical device to set up a bearish investment thesis.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
05
Uses a pop-culture reference (Meet the Parents) to create a lighthearted transition or introduction.filler
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
06
The slide uses imagery of fracking-related environmental hazards to define what is NOT being discussed.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
07
The slide uses a pop-culture image to establish a thematic tone before transitioning to serious business content.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
08
The cartoon serves as a metaphorical critique of poor investment choices, specifically referencing oil fracking.filler
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
09
The slide uses a clip from the movie Airplane 2 as a humorous segue or filler.filler
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
10
The slide uses a metaphorical illustration to simplify the concept of fossil fuel extraction.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)
11
The image is a cultural reference to J.R. Ewing from the TV show 'Dallas', representing the oil tycoon archetype.establish_context
12
The image is a cultural reference used to illustrate the 'boom and bust' nature of the industry being discussed.transition
13
The slide highlights the impact of fracking on U.S. energy independence and oil prices.analyze_data
16
The cartoon is by Morris. It serves as a cynical commentary on the financial model of fracking.illustrate_case
17
The slide uses a provocative tone ('frack addicts') to criticize the financial sustainability of the oil fracking industry.expose_contradiction
18
The slide uses a quote to illustrate the behavior of oil drillers as gamblers.cite_precedent
19
The slide uses a sarcastic tone to critique the capital allocation strategy of oil fracking companies.analyze_data
20
The slide uses a Charles Barsotti cartoon to metaphorically describe the 'all hat and no cattle' situation of oil frackers.filler
21
The slide uses a dual-axis line chart to illustrate the inverse relationship between oil prices and cash burn, highlighting the industry's poor capital discipliexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
22
The slide uses a cartoon to critique the 'investing for growth' narrative used by fracking companies to justify non-GAAP metrics.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
23
The slide uses satire to highlight the proliferation of non-GAAP financial metrics.other
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
24
Uses a cartoon to illustrate the irony of oil companies being surprised by resource depletion.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
25
The slide uses a cultural reference to suggest deception in financial reporting.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
26
The slide uses a dual-axis chart to visually link the drop in oil prices to the industry's cash burn.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
27
The slide serves as a transition to a deep dive into a specific company.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)
30
Slide 30 from a Greenlight Capital presentation.analyze_data
31
The slide uses a New Yorker-style cartoon to mock the company's capital allocation, specifically the $2 billion equity raise.other
32
The image is a famous scene from The Dark Knight where the Joker burns a pile of money, used here to imply capital destruction.name_villain
33
Slide provides regulatory/technical definitions for oil and gas industry terminology.establish_context
34
The slide uses a rhetorical question as a title to challenge the company's performance claims.expose_contradiction
35
Includes a cartoon illustration of a 'wishing well' with a disclaimer sign, likely used for humor regarding the speculative nature of undeveloped reserves.establish_context
36
The slide calculates the unit cost of reserve development by adding production to the net change in reserves and dividing total Capex by that sum.analyze_data
37
The slide uses a visual metaphor of barrels to represent production composition.analyze_data
38
The slide uses a visual metaphor of a printer printing money to illustrate the inefficiency of the business model.expose_contradiction
39
The chart displays a forward curve for WTI crude oil prices from June 2015 to June 2023.analyze_data
40
The slide uses a 'bridge' style logic to adjust revenue and costs to arrive at a gross cash flow figure.analyze_data
41
Uses an hourglass illustration to represent the time value of money.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
42
The slide uses a New Yorker-style cartoon to mock corporate financial guidance.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
43
The slide uses the term 'SEC-onomics' to describe the standardized measure of discounted future net cash flows.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
44
The slide demonstrates the impact of commodity price sensitivity on equity value, assuming no reserve write-downs.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
45
The table highlights specific variables in red to emphasize changes or negative impacts.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
46
The slide uses a bridge/waterfall structure to explain the valuation gap between accounting measures and market capitalization.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
47
Uses a cartoon to illustrate the concept of 'Investor Deck-onomics' as a contrast to 'SEC-onomics'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
48
The slide highlights the distinction between proved reserves (845 MMBOE) and recoverable resource potential (10.2 BBOE).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)
50
The slide includes a callout box highlighting the specific pricing assumptions ($90 oil, $5 gas) used for the resource potential calculation.analyze_data
51
The slide uses a 'before-after' style critique where the original slide is presented as evidence of a lack of transparency regarding economic assumptions.expose_contradiction
52
The slide uses a cartoon as a rhetorical device to mock the target company's valuation methodology.name_villain
53
The slide uses a Hyperbole and a Half cartoon to mock the 'bull' narrative as a repetitive, potentially dubious story.preempt_rebuttal
54
The slide exposes how accounting treatments (subsidy) can flatter operational metrics.expose_contradiction
55
The slide calculates an adjusted Capex figure by allocating non-drilling costs to the primary drilling program.analyze_data
56
The cartoon uses a wine corkscrew metaphor to represent drilling into the ground and extracting a 'burst' of resources.diagnose_problem
57
Uses a pop-culture reference (Homer Simpson looking at an empty ice cream carton) to explain a business concept.diagnose_problem
58
The slide is used to critique the 'well economics' touted by management and analysts.expose_contradiction
59
The slide uses a 'reality check' framing to undermine external analyst optimism.expose_contradiction
60
The slide uses a satirical cartoon to critique industry-standard valuation practices (EBITDAX multiples) in favor of a DCF model.frame_problem
61
The slide provides both a high-level bulleted list of assumptions and a detailed paragraph explaining the methodology behind the DCF calculation.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
62
The cartoon is a classic Sidney Harris New Yorker cartoon used to mock unrealistic business projections.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
63
The chart illustrates the difference between short-term volatility and long-term stability in oil pricing.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
64
The slide uses a 'high case' scenario to demonstrate that even with optimistic assumptions, the stock is overvalued.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
65
The chart uses a cost-curve format (often called a 'waterfall' or 'area' chart in this context) to rank assets by breakeven price.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
66
The slide uses a red arrow to highlight the 'Tight Oil' bubble, emphasizing its high cost position on the Y-axis.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
67
The slide uses a cartoon to illustrate a point about investment strategy, specifically comparing betting on oil prices via stocks versus other instruments.present_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
69
The chart highlights the divergence between short-term and long-term oil price recovery.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & Proof
70
The cartoon features a sign with 'FF', likely a play on 'Fracking' or 'Failure'.illustrate_case
72
Includes specific operational metrics like Capex/BOE, production mix, and cost of capital inputs.analyze_data
73
The table includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
74
The table includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
75
The slide is labeled A-4, indicating it is part of an appendix.analyze_data
76
The table includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
77
The table displays annual financial metrics including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash tax, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
78
The table displays annual financial data including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash tax, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
79
The years 2075-2084 are likely placeholders or specific long-term model projections.analyze_data
80
The years listed (2085-2094) appear to be placeholders or specific long-term projection periods.analyze_data
83
Includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, and Production alongside financial metrics like Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
84
The table includes key metrics such as Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
85
The table includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, and Production alongside financial metrics like Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
86
The table displays annual financial data including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
87
The table displays annual financial metrics including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash flow, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
88
The table displays annual financial metrics including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash flow, and Cash tax.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
89
The table displays annual financial metrics including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash flow, and Cash tax.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
90
The table displays annual financial metrics including Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Cash flow, Cash tax, and After tax cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
91
The slide is labeled B-10, indicating it is an appendix page.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps
92
The tables use conditional formatting to highlight a central range of values.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Impact & Next Steps