David Einhorn · conference-presentation
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
110 pages · 5 arc beats · 2 loops
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)
David Einhorn · 2011-10 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
5 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 50 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Background and Business 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 42 hits — 0/10 slides
40% 4/10 slides 10% 1/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides — 0/10 slides
The Patent Issue 12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 52 hits — 0/12 slides
— 0/12 slides
25% 3/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 18 hits 100% 12/12 slides · 24 hits Competition and Patents 7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 31 hits — 0/7 slides
— 0/7 slides
57.1% 4/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 13 hits 100% 7/7 slides · 13 hits Results of Field Research 9 slides 100% 9/9 slides 100% 9/9 slides · 38 hits — 0/9 slides
55.6% 5/9 slides 22.2% 2/9 slides 100% 9/9 slides 100% 9/9 slides Putting It All Together 12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 59 hits — 0/12 slides
41.7% 5/12 slides 41.7% 5/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides Slide inventory
110 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The title is a pun on 'Cappuccino' and 'GAAP' (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), likely setting up a critique of accounting practices.front_matter
08
Highlights the razor/razor blade business model and key growth statistics.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
09
The slide displays product images with associated model names and price points.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
10
The slide uses a logo-grid layout to display the company's diverse brand ecosystem.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
11
The table includes GAAP-adjusted metrics (Non-GAAP Net Income and EPS) and provides a detailed source note regarding adjustments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
12
The slide provides a snapshot of financial metrics including stock price, market cap, enterprise value, and various forward-looking multiples.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
13
The chart uses a gradient background and callout boxes to correlate stock performance with specific business events.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Background and Business
17
The slide uses a standard revenue/profit buildup framework to justify a valuation thesis.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
18
Uses direct quotes from earnings calls to support the thesis.establish_context
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
19
The slide uses quotes from management and external commentators to build a narrative around the company's valuation thesis.establish_context
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
21
The slide uses a comparison table to highlight a decline in disclosure quality, supporting a thesis of reduced transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
22
This slide presents a contrarian view on market size, likely part of a short-selling thesis.size_opportunity
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
23
The slide highlights a potential overestimation of the addressable market by GMCR.size_opportunity
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
24
The slide uses a comparison of product images and their respective price tags to establish the 'expensive' claim.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
26
The table segments coffee into Drip (Lower/Higher End) and K-cup (Lower/Higher End) to highlight the price disparity.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
27
Uses a stacked bar chart to contrast company claims vs. analyst estimates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
28
The slide uses a dual-line chart with overlaid bar markers to contrast company-reported data with external estimates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
29
The chart illustrates the slowing expansion of retail and supermarket locations for Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
31
The slide highlights a strategic pivot in reporting metrics by the CEO.cite_precedent
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
35
The table compares two business models for K-cup distribution, showing a breakdown of costs and margins.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
36
The slide uses a bottom-up buildup to derive a specific fee based on industry benchmarks and company-specific margin commentary.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
37
The slide uses a bulleted list to outline strategic deal points and references earnings calls for validation.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
39
The slide uses a negative thesis to challenge the company's quality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
41
The slide calculates ROIC by dividing implied net income by the sum of working capital, acquisitions, and fixed assets/capex.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
42
The slide uses a dark background with high-contrast text, typical of a critical investment thesis presentation.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
44
The slide uses research notes as citations to support the argument that the 'patent cliff' is not a significant threat.preempt_rebuttal
46
The slide highlights a discrepancy between the technical disclosure of patent expiration in 2012 and the more aggressive, defensive stance taken in analyst Q&A.expose_contradiction
47
This slide uses a classic 'thesis-antithesis' structure to undermine a company's public narrative.expose_contradiction
48
The slide uses a legal perspective to frame a business threat.expose_gap
50
The table provides a breakdown of acquisition dates, prices, revenue, multiples, and goodwill/intangible allocations for Tully's, Timothy's, Diedrich, and Van Hanalyze_data
51
The slide highlights the accounting impact of the acquisition, specifically the goodwill and intangible asset allocation.analyze_data
52
The slide highlights a $53.7 million increase in goodwill allocation.analyze_data
53
This slide presents a critical analysis of GMCR's M&A strategy, specifically questioning the valuation of goodwill and the underlying motive of eliminating compsummarize
54
The slide highlights a strategic pivot from technology to manufacturing through brand partnerships.present_solution
55
The slide serves as a counter-argument to the potential strategy of brand partnering.preempt_rebuttal
56
The slide highlights the 'obviousness' rejection by the Patent Office and the upcoming expiration of existing patents.diagnose_problem
57
The slide uses a patent document as evidence for a potential new product strategy.cite_precedent
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
58
Uses quotes from CEO and CFO to expose potential strategic uncertainty or contradiction.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
59
The slide explains the rationale behind a new product launch as a defensive patent strategy.frame_situation
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
60
The slide uses a rhetorical question and a cited quote to frame the business risk.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
61
The slide uses the 'Razor / Razor Blade' business model as a framework to explain the impact of patent expiration.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
63
The slide uses an expert testimonial to support a market penetration thesis.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
66
The slide uses a table to perform a sensitivity analysis on EPS by adjusting key operational metrics like K-cup consumption and private label penetration.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
68
The chart highlights a significant increase in projected capital expenditures for 2011 and 2012 compared to historical levels.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
69
The slide highlights a discrepancy between projected CapEx based on unit growth efficiency and the company's official guidance.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
70
The slide highlights an 'Unexplained CapEx' of $186M by comparing itemized investments against the company's total guidance.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
71
The slide uses a forensic accounting approach to identify a discrepancy between itemized CapEx and total guidance.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
75
The slide provides context for the Van Houtte acquisition and its impact on operating expense ratios.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
76
The slide includes a footnote link to an investor relations page.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
77
The slide uses a quote from the CFO to contrast with subsequent financial data points.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
78
Slide provides financial performance metrics for GMCR in Q2 2011.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
79
The slide uses a 'causal chain' logic (Installed base x attachment rate x days) to explain revenue predictability.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
80
The chart uses a color contrast (blue vs yellow) to emphasize the positive growth in the final data point.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
81
The slide highlights a $100 million revenue outperformance.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
83
This slide is a formal legal disclosure regarding an ongoing regulatory investigation.other
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
84
Uses a contrast-pairs approach to highlight the discrepancy between company narrative and analyst skepticism.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
85
This slide appears to be part of a presentation by Greenlight Capital regarding their short thesis on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR).establish_context
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
86
The slide highlights a regulatory challenge regarding disclosure requirements under Regulation S-K.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
87
This slide is a direct excerpt from an SEC response letter, used to clarify regulatory compliance and business model structure.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
88
The slide uses direct quotes from SEC filings to establish a factual basis for later critique.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
89
The slide uses testimonials to highlight the discrepancy between how Keurig was treated versus other clients, implying a material relationship that was not propexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · The Reveal
91
The slide uses a quote from a confidential witness to support a claim of accounting irregularities.expose_contradiction
92
The slide uses a dark background with green text, typical of investigative or 'short-seller' research presentations.diagnose_problem
93
The slide uses a dark background with high-contrast text, typical of investigative or forensic accounting presentations.diagnose_problem
94
The slide highlights operational issues like misaligned bonus structures and inefficient cross-shipping, framing them as deliberate 'shell games'.diagnose_problem
95
This slide presents qualitative evidence from field interviews, likely used to support a thesis regarding operational irregularities or potential channel stuffisummarize
96
Uses qualitative quotes from former workers and channel checks to validate a supply chain problem.diagnose_problem
97
The slide uses direct quotes and descriptions of operational manipulation to expose inventory fraud.expose_contradiction
99
This slide serves as a concluding summary for an investment thesis presentation.summarize
100
The slide uses a 'Putting It All Together' header to synthesize previous analysis into a core problem statement.diagnose_problem
101
The slide references a specific research note and an anecdotal report regarding inventory manipulation.summarize
102
Uses a Q&A format to frame the contradiction between analyst observation and management denial.expose_contradiction
104
Slide 104 of a presentation, likely part of a short-selling or activist investor thesis.name_villain
105
This is a legal disclosure slide from a 10-Q filing.summarize
106
The slide uses a callout box to interpret the legal disclaimer text.expose_contradiction
107
The slide uses a list format to detail specific capital raising events with corresponding share issuance data.summarize
108
The slide uses the 'villain_critique' pattern to suggest that insider selling is a negative signal about the company's future prospects.name_villain
109
The slide uses a 'follow the money' heuristic to challenge the company's reported earnings.diagnose_problem