{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507", "slug": "42871e2cc2e7", "title": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)", "subtitle": "David Einhorn · 2011-10", "author": "David Einhorn", "date": "2011-10-17 00:00:00", "pageCount": 110, "kind": "conference-presentation", "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters", "targetTicker": "GMCR", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622b-71dc-a6da-e7b68bedf507", "slug": "42871e2cc2e7", "title": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR)", "rawTitle": "Greenlight Green Mountain Coffee Presentation Oct 2011", "authorId": "04_Greenlight_Capital", "authorName": "David Einhorn", "authorDisplay": "David Einhorn", "kind": { "slug": "conference-presentation", "label": "Conference presentation" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "activist_investor", "label": "Activist investor" }, "fileName": "2011-10-Greenlight-Green-Mountain-Coffee-Presentation-Oct-2011.pdf", "sourceUrl": "https://www.10xebitda.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Greenlight-Green-Mountain-Coffee-Presentation-Oct-2011.pdf", "sourceDate": "2011-10-17 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2011-10-17 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 16:12:56+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 110, "orientation": "portrait", "aspectRatio": 0.77272725, "targetCompany": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters", "targetTicker": "GMCR", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/42871e2cc2e7", "activist_firm": "Greenlight Capital", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 259.33156991004944 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 110, "pagesIndexed": 110, "pagesWithImages": 110, "pagesWithMetadata": 110, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 506, "chartCount": 7, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 40, "documentToolMatches": 6, "frameworkMatches": 32, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 5, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "matchId": "7a4b2c9e-9040-4918-9e3a-423cde962f31", "evidence": "The presentation follows a narrative of identifying a problem (patent expiration) and providing a solution (exposing contradictions in GMCR's story)", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:54:44.947008+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 13, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 4, "name": "Background and Business", "beatId": "31786def-71a3-4147-b0a5-0580928cc44f", "matchId": "7a4b2c9e-9040-4918-9e3a-423cde962f31", "beatType": { "name": "Setup", "slug": "setup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-020e-7505-af9b-d9b9a4679bcc", "version": 1, "description": "Where the deck grounds the reader before doing anything else. Almost every arc opens here." }, "evidence": "Provides background information on GMCR's business", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 56, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Booker's 7 Plots", "categorySlug": "booker-s-7-plots" }, "from": 45, "name": "The Patent Issue", "beatId": "b42136b7-82f6-4e8e-b408-9c324d687353", "matchId": "7a4b2c9e-9040-4918-9e3a-423cde962f31", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "2bd7e4b2-7a4d-4ec6-ac41-f54d64d50d4e", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "8a128855-28c3-4917-af94-ce3a3825ce9c", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:49.865912+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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Multi-legged bear case: (1) bull TAM/attachment-rate math; (2) Sept 2012 K-cup patent cliff; (3) unexplained capex; (4) live SEC inquiry into the MBlock fulfillment-entity relationship; (5) former-employee allegations of channel stuffing, warehouse 'shell games,' and inventory-audit irregularities. Uses direct CEO/CFO quote contradiction extensively (e.g., 'we are not going to report on consumption per brewer' juxtaposed with declining attachment rate chart; 'we did not pull forward any sales at all' vs whistleblower claims). Side-by-side 'Bulls' Estimate vs Adjusted Estimate' table on p.66 is the classic before/after slide. Ends with a wry 'bear latte art' photo. Visual style is basic black PowerPoint with green Greenlight ring branding — text-heavy, not a craft specimen, but the argument architecture is canonical for short-report construction.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Fell from ~4.0 in Q1 2006 to ~1.4 by Q3 2011", "metric": "K-cup attachment rate (daily K-cups per brewer)" }, { "detail": "Greenlight estimates >10.5M brewers, ~50% of realistic 21M TAM, vs GMCR's 8-10% of 90M framing", "metric": "Installed brewer base penetration" }, { "detail": "$700-780M with $426M classified as 'unexplained' vs identifiable K-cup capacity needs", "metric": "FY2012E CapEx guidance" }, { "detail": "35.6x on consensus $2.59 EPS at $92.09 share price", "metric": "Forward P/E (2012E)" }, { "detail": "72.6% in FY2010, 99.1%E in FY2011", "metric": "Revenue growth" }, { "detail": "$9.00 bull case vs Greenlight's adjusted ~$3.50", "metric": "Long-term EPS (bulls vs Greenlight)" }, { "detail": "~$172.3M netted across 13 named officers and directors; Chairman Stiller alone netted $77M", "metric": "Insider net sales in 2011" }, { "detail": "$717M actual vs $602-617M guidance and $609M consensus; 27% K-cup unit surprise", "metric": "Q2 2011 (June quarter) revenue surprise" }, { "detail": "~43% of FY2010 consolidated net sales processed through MBlock; 51% of A/R at Sep 2009", "metric": "MBlock share of GMCR sales" } ], "closingAsk": "Look past reported earnings and follow the cash — assess GMCR on realistic assumptions given the frothy bull case, patent cliff, questionable accounting, and heavy insider selling.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 16:12:56+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 259.33157, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Realistic long-term EPS is ~$3.50 versus bulls' $9.00; re-rated to a market multiple instead of a premium, GMCR trades dramatically below the current ~$92 share price, implying substantial downside for shorts.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Bulls' $9 EPS assumes a 64M-home TAM; realistic TAM is ~21M and attachment rates are already falling", "September 2012 K-cup patent expiration ends razor-blade monopoly pricing", "Live SEC inquiry and former-worker accounts suggest channel stuffing and rigged inventory audits" ], "scqaSituation": "Green Mountain Coffee Roasters is a $15bn single-serve coffee company trading at 35x forward earnings, marketed to investors as the 'iPod of coffee' riding an aspirational razor/razor-blade Keurig K-cup platform.", "thesisSummary": "David Einhorn argues GMCR is dramatically overvalued at 35x forward earnings on a bull-case 'iPod of coffee' narrative that collapses under scrutiny. 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These views are subject to change without notice at any time subsequent to the date of issue. Greenlight has an economic interest in the price movement of the securities discussed in this presentation, but Greenlight’s economic interest is subject to change without notice. All information provided in this presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as investment advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell any specific security. While the information presented herein is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any data presented. In addition, there can be no guarantee that any projection, forecast or opinion in this presentation will be realized. All trade names, trade marks, service marks, and logos herein are the property of their respective owners who retain all proprietary rights over their use. 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GMCR FY2010 10-K, p.F-26\n2. Diedrich 10-Q for the period ending 3/3/2010", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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