Pershing Square · activist-deck
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FNMA / FMCC)
104 pages · 3 arc beats · 2 loops
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FNMA / FMCC)
Pershing Square · 2025-01 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
3 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 59 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Situation & Context 7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 31 hits — 0/7 slides
14.3% 1/7 slides 57.1% 4/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides — 0/7 slides
Problem & Complication 14 slides 100% 14/14 slides 100% 14/14 slides · 72 hits — 0/14 slides
7.1% 1/14 slides 42.9% 6/14 slides 100% 14/14 slides 28.6% 4/14 slides Solution & Approach 38 slides 100% 38/38 slides 100% 38/38 slides · 215 hits — 0/38 slides
31.6% 12/38 slides · 13 hits 52.6% 20/38 slides 100% 38/38 slides — 0/38 slides
Slide inventory
104 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
06
Uses historical precedent to frame a systemic crisis.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
09
The chart highlights the dominance of GSEs in the mortgage market over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
10
The chart illustrates the post-2008 collapse of the private-label MBS market and the subsequent dominance of GSEs.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
12
The U.S. column is highlighted with a dashed oval to emphasize its outlier status.compare_peers
14
The U.S. is highlighted with a dashed oval to emphasize its unique reliance on MBS compared to European peers.compare_peers
15
The slide uses a clear, bulleted structure to explain the transformation of illiquid mortgages into liquid securities.establish_context
17
Uses a hub-and-spoke diagram to contrast business models.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
18
Uses a hub-and-spoke diagram to contrast a 'good' business line with a 'bad' one.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
20
The slide uses a list-based argument structure to justify the thesis that the business model is low-risk.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
21
The slide uses a stacked bar chart to visualize the capital structure of a home purchase.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
22
Dual-axis charts showing LTV (bars) and FICO (lines) for both entities.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
24
Includes a watermark 'www.10xebitda.com'.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
25
The chart uses a grouped bar format to compare two entities over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
26
The chart demonstrates that credit losses were historically low except for the 2008-2012 period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
27
The chart uses a broken axis (indicated by the tilde symbol) to accommodate the extreme negative values in 2009.analyze_data
28
The slide uses a stacked bar chart to contrast massive losses against a small capital requirement bar.expose_contradiction
29
The chart uses a split-axis style to contrast a negative loss figure with a positive capital requirement figure.expose_contradiction
30
The slide highlights the high risk of subprime/Alt-A loans relative to their portfolio size.expose_contradiction
31
The chart uses a waterfall-style logic to compare losses against capital buffers.quantify_opportunity
32
The slide uses a hub-and-spoke diagram to contrast the risk profiles and market utility of the two business segments.frame_situation
33
The slide uses a balance sheet visualization to illustrate the high leverage (40:1 ratio implied by $100 assets vs $2.5 equity).frame_situation
34
The slide uses an authority citation to frame the villain (Fannie/Freddie) as exploitative.cite_precedent
35
The slide uses a high-profile authority figure to validate the activist's critique of the target entities' business models.cite_precedent
40
The slide highlights the financial structure of the 2008 GSE bailout and questions the Treasury's dividend collection strategy.cite_precedent
41
The slide uses a vertical bar chart to contrast pre- and post-sweep profitability, implying the government timed the sweep to capture earnings.expose_contradiction
42
The chart highlights a specific one-time accounting draw in 2017 due to tax reform.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
43
The slide uses a red border to emphasize the GSE row, contrasting it with the other bailout recipients.compare_peers
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
44
The chart uses a grouped bar chart format to compare two entities over time, with callout boxes annotating specific policy changes.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
45
The slide argues that the amendment is largely procedural rather than substantive.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
47
The slide uses a visual of a letter to establish authority and historical context for the activist's argument.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
48
The slide uses a mix of bullet points and a highlighted callout box to summarize the investment thesis.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
49
The slide uses alternating grey background bars for readability.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
51
The slide uses a green callout box to highlight the regulatory critique.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
52
The slide uses a comparison frame to argue against applying bank-standard capital requirements to GSEs.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
53
The slide uses a pull-quote to establish authority for the argument that insurance regulatory frameworks are more appropriate for GSEs.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
54
The slide uses a checkmark/cross comparison to highlight risk differences.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
55
Uses a stacked bar visual to represent LTV coverage ranges.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
57
The slide uses a financial model to demonstrate the impact of capital requirements on mortgage pricing and capital efficiency.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
58
The slide uses a specific scenario analysis to argue against higher capital requirements for GSEs.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
59
The slide uses a checkmark/cross matrix to illustrate risk exposure differences across three financial entities.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
60
The chart uses a mix of negative bars (losses) and positive bars (capital) to illustrate the adequacy of the proposed capital buffer.propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
61
The slide uses a direct analyst quote to validate the activist's proposed capital requirement.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
63
The slide uses a two-part argument structure to justify capital requirements.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
64
The chart uses a waterfall-like comparison to show the coverage ratio of proposed capital vs historical losses.propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
65
The slide uses a 'demand list' format to advocate for regulatory changes regarding GSEs.state_demand
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
66
The slide outlines specific regulatory and market advantages for GSE MBS that are deemed essential.state_demand
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
69
The slide argues for modifying the Senior Preferred Stock Purchase Agreements (PSPAs) to act as a backstop, detailing the financial commitment and the need for propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
70
Uses a stacked bar chart to compare historical losses against the proposed capital buffer.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
71
The slide uses a direct quote from a ratings agency to preempt concerns about credit rating downgrades upon exiting conservatorship.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
72
The slide uses market data to justify a specific financial proposal (the PSPA commitment fee).compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
75
The chart uses a before-after comparison for each entity to demonstrate the return on investment.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
76
The slide uses a quote to validate the thesis that the government has been made whole on its investment.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
77
The slide uses pie charts to show the composition of capital, highlighting the role of 'Credit for Excess Payments' in meeting capital requirements.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
78
The slide uses a stacked bar chart to show the build-up of capital over two years.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
79
The chart shows the transition from a negative equity position to a positive pro-forma equity position through earnings, debt repayment, and equity conversion.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
80
The slide uses a waterfall-style logic to show capital accumulation and the required injection.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
81
The chart shows the transition from a negative equity position to a positive $99bn position through earnings, debt repayment, IPO proceeds, and equity conversioshow_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
82
Includes specific details on non-cumulative dividend terms and conversion assumptions for IPO modeling.propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
83
Includes IPO annotations for FNMA and FMCC. Data source: Company filings and Pershing Square estimates.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
84
The slide uses a clear, bulleted list to justify a specific sequencing strategy for privatization.propose_solution
85
The table uses historical IPO data to validate the proposed IPO sizes for Fannie and Freddie.cite_precedent
86
The slide outlines specific bps (basis points) and percentage assumptions for G-fees, commitment fees, asset growth, and dividend payouts.analyze_data
87
The table uses a mix of absolute dollar values and basis points (bps) to project financial performance.analyze_data
89
The table uses a DCF-style approach with interim dividends and a terminal value based on a 15x multiple.show_valuation_bridge
90
The table uses a multi-step valuation approach starting from 2035E projections, discounting back to 2027, and applying an IPO discount.show_valuation_bridge
91
The slide uses a green callout box to highlight a specific investor concern/objection.preempt_rebuttal
92
The chart uses a stacked area format to show the base share price and the value of HHC shares/dividends.illustrate_case
93
The table uses checkmarks to indicate compliance with specific distribution and financial standards.compare_peers
94
The slide uses a comparison framework to establish a valuation thesis.compare_peers
95
Includes market capitalization, return on equity metrics, trading multiples, and shareholder return data.compare_peers
96
The slide emphasizes that despite restructuring, the US government retains a controlling interest via warrants.analyze_data
97
The table shows a total return of $311 billion over the period.quantify_opportunity
99
The table compares a 'Deemed Repaid' scenario against multiple 'SPS Converted to Common' scenarios at varying cost of equity assumptions.show_valuation_bridge
100
The slide uses quotes from a legal brief to establish a precedent/argument against the government's actions.cite_precedent
102
The slide uses a quote from a former Treasury official to support the thesis that GSEs are preparing for exit from conservatorship.cite_precedent
103
The slide uses a list-based argument structure to justify immediate action.summarize
104
The slide uses a quote from 'The Art of the Deal' to establish a thematic tone for the activist deck.other