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Long-running Pershing Square position (Ackman public on FNMA/FMCC since ~2013); this 2025 deck is policy advocacy toward Trump Treasury/FHFA rather than corporate activism. Disclaimer confirms 'Funds managed by Pershing Square and its affiliates own shares, predominantly common stock' but no percent stake disclosed. Four-step framework (capital / benefits / governance / backstop) is the structural spine. Heavy use of authority quotes (Greenspan, Buffett, Mortgage Bankers Association, KBW, Cato Institute, amicus briefs) for credentialing. Implicit villain is FHFA's 4% capital rule and the 2012 Net Worth Sweep, not a named individual. Watermarked '10XEBITDA.com' throughout (third-party redistribution); authorship unambiguously Pershing Square. No named author on cover — hence author_name null.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Long-term average ~30bps since 1990; current 64bps FNMA / 67bps FMCC", "metric": "Average g-fee (bps)" }, { "detail": "~$6.7-7.6tn outstanding; 88% of total GSE guarantees", "metric": "Single-family guarantee portfolio" }, { "detail": "Pre-GFC 0.45%; FHFA 2020 rule 4%; Pershing proposed 2.5%", "metric": "Capital ratio" }, { "detail": "$46bn actual; $27bn excl. subprime & Alt-A; $138bn including provisions", "metric": "Cumulative credit losses 2007-2011" }, { "detail": "$286bn total = $168bn equity + $101bn future g-fees + $17bn crisis optionality (10.6x core GFC losses)", "metric": "Claims Paying Resources at 2.5%" }, { "detail": "$301bn paid on $191bn disbursed; 11.6% IRR; $25bn above 10% contractual rate", "metric": "Treasury dividends received" }, { "detail": "Up to 48% of credit losses from ~10% of portfolio in 2008", "metric": "Subprime/Alt-A share of Fannie losses" }, { "detail": "3.5%-4.7% (anchor comparison)", "metric": "Bank Tier 1 minimum for residential mortgages" }, { "detail": "5.6% PMIERs ratio", "metric": "PMI minimum capital" }, { "detail": "FNMA 12.5% ROE, $2.97 EPS; FMCC 10.6% ROE, $3.34 EPS", "metric": "2035E ROE / EPS" }, { "detail": "FNMA $31.81 at 12/31/26 (10% IPO discount); FMCC $33.77 at 12/31/27 (15% IPO discount)", "metric": "Implied IPO share price" }, { "detail": "Fannie $5bn in 2026; Freddie $15bn in 2027", "metric": "IPO size" }, { "detail": "50/50 P&C / utility blend = ~14x P/E, ~2.1x BV", "metric": "Trading multiple benchmark" }, { "detail": "79.9% of both companies", "metric": "Treasury common warrant stake" } ], "closingAsk": "Act now during the Trump administration's four-year runway to release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship, generating ~$300bn for taxpayers via a private recapitalization and warrant monetization.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 00:52:28+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 265.68542, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Fannie could be worth ~$35/share by YE 2026 and Freddie ~$39 by YE 2027 — versus ~$6 today — while Treasury's warrants generate ~$300bn for taxpayers, more than all other bailout profits combined.", "thesisTypes": [ "undervaluation", "strategic_pivot", "multiple_rerating", "capital_return" ], "top3Reasons": [ "A 2.5% capital rule gives GSEs a fortress balance sheet with 10x actual 2007-2011 core losses", "Treasury's 79.9% warrants could generate ~$300bn for taxpayers — more than all prior bailouts combined", "Fannie worth ~$35 by YE 2026, Freddie ~$39 by YE 2027 — vs. ~$6 today" ], "scqaSituation": "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are GSEs guaranteeing ~$7.6 trillion of US single-family mortgages, operating in government conservatorship since 2008 and now holding $131bn of retained capital.", "thesisSummary": "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been in government conservatorship since 2008 and now hold $131bn of retained capital, enough to stand alone. Pershing Square argues FHFA's 2020 capital rule of 4% is impractical — it would tie up ~$100bn of wasted capital and force g-fee hikes that effectively tax American homebuyers. A 2.5% standard, benchmarked against banks and private mortgage insurers, gives the GSEs $286bn of Claims Paying Resources, more than 10x their actual 2007-2011 losses excluding subprime and Alt-A. The four-step framework: set 2.5% capital, strip government-granted benefits, install market-based governance, clarify the backstop. Fannie IPOs in 2026 at ~$32/share and Freddie in 2027 at ~$34, re-rating to ~$35 and ~$39 at full recapitalization versus ~$6 today. Treasury's 79.9% warrants could deliver ~$300bn to taxpayers. The incoming Trump administration has a four-year runway to act.", "primaryDemands": [ "Release Fannie and Freddie from FHFA conservatorship via Treasury/FHFA action (no Congress needed)", "Set minimum capital requirement at 2.5% (vs. FHFA's current 4% rule)", "Limit non-vital government-granted benefits (SEC exemption, UST $2.25bn line, Volcker exemption, FSOC exemption)", "IPO Fannie Mae ~$5bn in 2026 and Freddie Mac ~$15bn in 2027", "Treat Treasury's Senior Preferred Stock as repaid — do NOT convert into common equity", "Exercise Treasury's 79.9% warrants and monetize over time to generate ~$300bn for taxpayers" ], "scqaResolution": "Set capital at 2.5%, strip non-vital government benefits, IPO Fannie in 2026 and Freddie in 2027, and treat Treasury's Senior Preferred as repaid rather than convert it to common.", "thesisOneLiner": "Release Fannie and Freddie from conservatorship at a 2.5% capital standard and IPO them at ~$30+/share; Treasury's warrants generate ~$300bn while shares 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Such statements, estimates, and projections reflect various assumptions by Pershing Square concerning anticipated results that are inherently subject to significant economic, competitive, legal, regulatory, and other uncertainties and contingencies and have been included solely for illustrative purposes. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates or projections or with respect to any other materials herein and Pershing Square disclaims any liability with respect thereto. Any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation is subject to various risks and uncertainties. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained herein. The information contained in this presentation may not contain all of the information required in order to evaluate Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and the proposal described in the presentation. 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(\"Pershing Square\") contained in this presentation are based on publicly available information. Pershing Square recognizes that there may be confidential or otherwise nonpublic information in the possession of the companies discussed in this presentation that could lead these companies and others to disagree with Pershing Square's analyses, conclusions and opinions. This presentation and the information contained herein is not investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. 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The portfolios were the ways that the managements of Freddie and Fannie tried to juice up the earnings, basically, because the insurance guaranteed that they were given that mortgage. I always thought that made a lot of sense. But the portfolio operations enabled both of those entities to use, in effect, government-related borrowing costs and sort of unlimited credit, to set up the biggest hedge fund in the world...So the portfolios are poison. They aren’t really needed to carry out the function of Freddie and Fannie.\" — Warren Buffett, 9/8/2008", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:25:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be6b-1f2a03302deb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: CNBC interview. https://www.cnbc.com/2008/09/08/transcript-video-warren-buffett-tells-cnbc-treasury-did-exactly-the-right-thing-on-fanniefreddie.html", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:23.691+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b173236d-754c-46d3-a288-0538af882252", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.00375 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Insurance regulation is also more likely to see a stream of future premiums as a source of loss-absorbing capacity, and hence looks to be sure that pricing is sufficient to cover losses under all but the most catastrophic scenarios. In MBA’s proposal, with the Guarantors having only a minimal investment portfolio holding assets of short duration, insurance regulatory concepts may become more applicable than bank regulatory concepts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:23.691+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c993509c-242f-4b6a-92ee-e4bad06d0563", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Insurance regulation is also more likely to see a stream of future premiums as a source of loss-absorbing capacity, and hence looks to be sure that pricing is sufficient to cover losses under all but the most catastrophic scenarios. In MBA’s proposal, with the Guarantors having only a minimal investment portfolio holding assets of short duration, insurance regulatory concepts may become more applicable than bank regulatory concepts.\" — Mortgage Bankers Association, 4/20/2017", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:25:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be6b-edf7f8e6ce49", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.0095 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Mortgage Bankers Association white paper titled “GSE Reform: Creating a Sustainable, More Vibrant Secondary Mortgage Market”, April 2017.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(1) Private mortgage insurers based on the minimum 5.6% of performing primary adjusted risk-in-force ratio required by the GSEs' September 2018 Private Mortgage Insurer Eligibility Requirements (PMIERs).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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(1) Capital ratio for PMIs based on the minimum 5.6% of performing primary adjusted risk-in-force ratio. (2) Typical severity based on Urban Institute's analysis of GSE loans.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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That is, private investors in the Guarantors would have a reasonable expectation of a market rate of return on a risk-adjusted basis. To achieve this objective, investors would want to ensure that capital requirements are not too high, regulation and supervision is not too expensive, credit standards are sound and efforts to make housing more affordable do not impinge significantly on returns.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:24.628+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b6de6645-257e-42e8-978d-9da591b072a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"To generate the large amount of private capital required to fund such a system, the Guarantor business model and expected returns through the cycle need to be attractive. That is, private investors in the Guarantors would have a reasonable expectation of a market rate of return on a risk-adjusted basis. To achieve this objective, investors would want to ensure that capital requirements are not too high, regulation and supervision is not too expensive, credit standards are sound and efforts to make housing more affordable do not impinge significantly on returns.\" — Mortgage Bankers Association, 4/20/2017", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:25:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be6c-1a20284837fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.44, "y": 0.00775 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "- Mortgage Bankers Association, 4/20/2017", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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fortress balance sheet with more than 5.5 times as much capital as historical levels", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:28.792+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2e37f8ae-3bf3-4e0e-b5d5-293e62ef8f37", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Equity Requirement for Single-Family Guarantee Business ($ in billions)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:28.792+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f9a1014-3d2d-4f55-a4e9-d6b8f8a4bea0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Capital Ratio: 2.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:25:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be6c-5c5b32423ff6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.0078 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "2.5% of equity capital would amount to 6.2 times the cumulative losses in the GSEs' single-family guarantee business during the financial crisis, based on our estimates of actual credit losses excluding the elevated losses from subprime and Alt-A MBS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": 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Note: Capital ratios are based on the combined Fannie and Freddie 2024 single-family guarantee portfolio of $6.7 trillion. Adjusted Cumulative Losses (2007-2011) represents Fannie and Freddie’s cumulative fully-taxed net losses from 2007-2011, based on actual credit losses and excluding the elevated level of losses from subprime and Alt-A MBS.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We estimate future g-fees are worth ~$101bn.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:25.095+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca219ed1-f43e-4c95-9ef7-82584553b1e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "present value of future g-fees: $101bn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:25:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-203c-716b-be6c-d3598335694e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Set Appropriate Capital Requirements (Cont.)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:25.095+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4b58b4bd-0cc5-4c6b-be1a-5deeaed11ceb", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "List presentation", "slug": "list-presentation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-4ef7-777d-ba68-9074c2b3bcf1", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Bulleted, numbered, or checklist enumerations.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "e3ec78ef-0ca5-4070-88da-8fbceeeb6621", "evidence": "list/bullet: While they do not count towards capital, future contractual guarantee fees significantly enhance balance sheet strength.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:16:16.485781+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 63, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 83, "arc": { "name": "The Consultant's Gambit", "slug": "consultants-gambit", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Business cases, project proposals, strategic recommendations", "canonId": "019dd956-5e0a-73c8-b305-81c38c959e9c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Situation & Context -> Problem & Complication -> Solution & Approach -> Evidence & Proof -> Impact & Next Steps", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 46, "name": "Solution & Approach", "beatId": "74f4172d-1578-4f62-b431-89999c4dba31", "matchId": "2a89269f-8325-46af-a789-4b152b65abde", "beatType": { "name": "Solution & Approach", "slug": "consultants-gambit-solution-approach", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-071c-7161-9184-580fdac7a4f9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Slides propose a framework for ending conservatorship", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. 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5, "textChars": 584, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The chart uses a waterfall-like comparison to show the coverage ratio of proposed capital vs historical losses.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "bar_chart_stacked", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:27.566+00", "seconds": 5.198, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-17ab97a15038/64", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-17ab97a15038", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-17ab97a15038#slide-64", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b9c-17ab97a15038.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.83 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "2.5% of equity capital would imply Claims Paying Resources of $286bn, over 10 times the cumulative losses in the GSEs' single-family guarantee business during the financial crisis, based on our estimates of actual credit losses excluding subprime and Alt-A MBS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:27.566+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e34a0389-5102-422f-b99f-a07c5cd0e018", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Proposed Capital and Claims Paying Resources for Single-Family Guarantee Business ($bn)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:27.566+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "215d9705-0f70-4f1f-95cc-384d3aac5e08", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Claims Paying Resources: $286bn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": 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And it just shows that, you know, that there is an opportunity here also to protect the taxpayer. The taxpayer has actually been – in some ways, in many ways, repaid from the bailout of Fannie and Freddie. We gotta kind of turn the page and fix it to move on.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:26.793+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f249740a-983d-422d-ba8e-ef822340c98d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“So it’s an 11.5% moment [the IRR on the Senior Preferred]. And it just shows that, you know, that there is an opportunity here also to protect the taxpayer. 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The provider of the assistance, formerly the FDIC for banks and Treasury for the Companies, receives repayment plus interest like any creditor based on the assistance agreement. All past open bank assistance and conservatorships, and all principles underlying HERA and related insolvency statutes, limited that repayment to the actual funding provided because the statutory goal explicitly is to restore the company to a ‘sound and solvent’ condition. 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Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That's how I get my kicks.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 19:59:30.488+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "14265d45-d829-469c-8a36-7668e10bb42e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Deals are my art form. Other people paint beautifully on canvas or write wonderful poetry. I like making deals, preferably big deals. That's how I get my kicks.\" — Donald J. 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