Spruce Point Capital Management · activist-deck
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)
48 pages · 3 arc beats · 2 loops
DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)
Spruce Point Capital Management · 2025-10 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
3 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 36 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
The Monster 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 23 hits — 0/5 slides
— 0/5 slides
20% 1/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides — 0/5 slides
The Struggle 15 slides 100% 15/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides · 89 hits — 0/15 slides
6.7% 1/15 slides 40% 6/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides 73.3% 11/15 slides The Victory 16 slides 100% 16/16 slides 93.8% 15/16 slides · 101 hits — 0/16 slides
12.5% 2/16 slides 56.3% 9/16 slides 100% 16/16 slides 62.5% 10/16 slides Slide inventory
48 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The slide uses a screenshot of a prediction market as a proxy for market sentiment/risk assessment.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
03
The slide uses a 'precedent' structure to build authority by showing a past successful short thesis.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
04
The slide uses stock charts to validate the firm's predictive capabilities.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
05
Features the Spruce Point Capital Management logo (pine tree).front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
06
The slide uses a yellow background to highlight the core thesis text. It references specific regulatory events in 2025 involving the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarkeframe_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
07
The slide outlines the conflict between federal and state regulation of prediction markets and details specific legal timelines and scenarios.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
08
The slide discusses legal injunction tests (irreparable harm, public interest) and regulatory warnings from state gaming commissions.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
09
The slide uses a yellow-bordered box to highlight key arguments regarding market disruption and competitive advantage.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
10
The slide uses a yellow background callout box to emphasize the core thesis regarding market misinterpretation.summarize
11
The slide uses a yellow background to highlight the core thesis statement.summarize
12
The slide uses a matrix structure to compare four distinct legal cases (MA, NJ, MD, NV) across four dimensions (Status, Impact, Decision Window, Supreme Court).diagnose_problem
13
Includes a screenshot of the Kalshi orderbook interface.compare_peers
14
The table highlights 24 outcomes where Kalshi's payout is compared against DraftKings; the yellow cells indicate where Kalshi's payout is higher.compare_peers
15
The table highlights specific betting outcomes where Kalshi offers higher payouts than DraftKings.compare_peers
16
The table highlights specific game scenarios (pregame vs in-play) to compare payout returns on a $100 bet.compare_peers
17
The chart compares 2024 OSB data against 2025 Kalshi data.compare_peers
18
The slide uses a comparison to DKNG to frame Kalshi as a competitive threat.preempt_rebuttal
19
The slide uses a stacked bar chart for the OSB side and a single bar for Kalshi to imply an outsized market share.compare_peers
20
The slide argues that Kalshi's 18+ age requirement allows it to capture users before they reach the 21+ age requirement for traditional sportsbooks like DKNG.compare_peers
21
The slide uses a 100% stacked bar chart to visualize revenue concentration risk.compare_peers
22
Includes raw data tables for DKNG and competitors in NY, plus a specific comparison for NFL weeks 1-4.expose_contradiction
23
The slide uses a bottom-up adjustment to consensus estimates based on observed handle impact from prediction markets.quantify_opportunity
24
The table models five scenarios ranging from 'Most Conservative' to 'Most Aggressive' to demonstrate potential revenue misses.quantify_opportunity
25
The slide uses a structured table to demonstrate the impact of Kalshi on DKNG's sportsbook handle and subsequent revenue.quantify_opportunity
26
The table demonstrates that even in the 'Most Conservative' case, Spruce Point projects a revenue miss against consensus.quantify_opportunity
27
The slide uses a comparison table to highlight feature parity and social media screenshots as proof of the new competitive threat.preempt_rebuttal
28
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29
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison table to contrast JP Morgan's methodology with Spruce Point's corrected methodology.expose_contradiction
30
Uses external data (InGame analysis and former employee testimony) to challenge the valuation thesis of the target company.expose_contradiction
31
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison to highlight a calculation error in a sell-side report.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
32
The slide uses specific betting examples to demonstrate that as odds become more skewed, the total fee collected per $100 volume decreases.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
33
The slide argues against a potential pivot to a prediction market model by quantifying the revenue impact.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
34
The slide uses a 'villain' framing for sell-side analysts, contrasting their bullish outlooks with the firm's bearish thesis.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
35
Includes a Bloomberg terminal screenshot showing revenue estimate revisions.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
36
The slide uses a valuation bridge to calculate equity value and share price under two scenarios (Low Case and Base Case).show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
38
The slide provides a step-by-step breakdown of how market share capture percentages are derived using variables A through J.analyze_data
39
The chart uses a broken axis for the handle bars. The red box highlights the 8.7% margin in Q2 2025 as an outlier.expose_contradiction
40
The slide uses red boxes to highlight cumulative handle figures across different weeks of NFL games on the Kalshi platform.analyze_data
42
The slide uses a screenshot of a betting platform to point out a massive discrepancy in reported handle figures.expose_contradiction
43
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific timestamps and payout data points to draw attention to the comparison.expose_contradiction
44
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific odds and timestamps to suggest a direct comparison of market efficiency or pricing.expose_contradiction
45
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific UI elements for comparison.compare_peers
46
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific odds and payout calculations on the Kalshi mobile interface.expose_contradiction
47
The slide highlights the discrepancy in potential returns for the same wagers, suggesting better value on the Kalshi platform.compare_peers
48
The slide uses a grid of screenshots to demonstrate discrepancies or differences in odds/market behavior between the two platforms.compare_peers