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Short thesis rests on a regulatory/competitive-disruption narrative (CFTC preempts state gaming laws; Kalshi/Polymarket capture OSB handle) rather than fraud or accounting. Spruce Point names Donald Trump Jr. (advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket) and CFTC chair nominee Brian Quintenz as part of the regulatory-tailwind argument for Kalshi, but does not attack DKNG management personally. Deck pairs fee-structure math (1.5% vs 8-10% vig), direct odds comparisons across 24+16 matchups, and weekly handle bar charts to argue consensus 2025/2026 numbers are stale. Track-record slides on p.3-4 cite prior Spruce Point shorts (GENI -86%, IRBT, TWOU) as analogues. No explicit stake size disclosed beyond the standard 'short position' language in the legal disclaimer.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "35-60% to $14-$22 per share from $34.89", "metric": "Target downside" }, { "detail": "3.1x 2025E, 2.6x 2026E; target rerate to 1.5-2.0x", "metric": "DKNG EV/Revenue multiple" }, { "detail": "~6-8% actual; could compress to 1.5-3% range as exchanges pressure margins", "metric": "DKNG sportsbook hold rate" }, { "detail": "~1.5% (InGame analysis of $1B+ volume); vs DKNG's 8-10% vig", "metric": "Kalshi effective fee / hold rate" }, { "detail": "$277M avg, ~30% of 2024 OSB NFL weekly handle of $914M", "metric": "Kalshi weekly NFL handle (Wk 1-4 2025)" }, { "detail": "$187M avg, ~79% of 2024 OSB NCAA weekly handle of $237M", "metric": "Kalshi weekly NCAA football handle (Wk 1-5 2025)" }, { "detail": "19% vs Week 1 ($275M to $328M)", "metric": "Kalshi Week-4 NFL handle growth" }, { "detail": "80% vs Week 1 ($165M to $297M)", "metric": "Kalshi Week-5 NCAA football handle growth" }, { "detail": "Kalshi had better odds in 21 of 24 tracked NFL/NCAA outcomes", "metric": "Odds comparison vs DKNG" }, { "detail": "Slowed from 57% YoY in Q3'24 to 6% YoY in Q2'25", "metric": "DKNG monthly unique player growth" }, { "detail": "~15% in Q4'24 and Q1'25; down to 6.3% in Q2'25", "metric": "DKNG handle YoY growth" }, { "detail": "61% of 2024 revenue from U.S. sportsbook vs. 29% for Flutter", "metric": "DKNG OSB revenue mix" }, { "detail": "Declined 8.9% vs +8.1% growth in 2024", "metric": "DKNG NY sportsbook handle Wk 3 to Wk 4 2025" }, { "detail": "$818M vs $4,088M sportsbook model on same $54.5B handle (-80%)", "metric": "Hypothetical revenue if DKNG pivoted to prediction model" }, { "detail": "~$53 average; a dozen analysts with no recent price change; some still >$60", "metric": "Consensus 2026 price target / analyst count" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell DKNG shares ahead of a wave of downgrades and consensus cuts as prediction exchanges capture OSB handle and force a multiple rerating.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:08:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 190.33612, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "35-60% downside to $14-$22 per share, applying 1.5-2.0x EV/Revenue (below the 2022 trough of 1.7x) on a 15-25% cut to 2026 consensus revenue of $7.5B, versus the current $34.89 share price.", "thesisTypes": [ "multiple_rerating", "other" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Kalshi captured ~30% of weekly NFL handle vs. OSB operators with zero material ad spend", "Prediction-exchange ~1.5% fee structurally beats DKNG's 8-10% sportsbook vig", "Re-rate to 1.5-2.0x EV/Revenue on revenue cut implies 35-60% downside to $14-$22" ], "scqaSituation": "DraftKings is the #1 U.S. online sportsbook, trading at ~3.1x 2025E revenue on $6.3B of sales, with 61% of 2024 revenue from its sportsbook vs. only 29% for Flutter — leaving it the most exposed OSB operator.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point issues a Strong Sell on DraftKings (DKNG) at $34.89, arguing that federally-regulated sports prediction exchanges — led by Kalshi and Polymarket, backed by CFTC jurisdiction that preempts state gaming laws — are structurally disrupting the online sportsbook market. In the first four weeks of the 2025 NFL season, Kalshi generated $277 million in weekly handle, roughly 30% of OSB NFL volume, and grew NCAA football handle by 80% in five weeks while DKNG's NY sportsbook handle declined 8.9% week-over-week. Because Kalshi charges only ~1.5% versus DKNG's 8-10% vig and lets users set odds peer-to-peer, bettors got better payouts in 21 of 24 outcomes Spruce Point tracked. With 2026 consensus revenue unchanged and analysts still at a $53 target, applying a 1.5-2.0x EV/Revenue multiple to a 15-25% revenue cut implies 35-60% downside to $14-$22 per share.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell DKNG shares", "Sell-side analysts should revise 2025/2026 revenue estimates and price targets downward to reflect structural disruption from federally-regulated sports prediction exchanges" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell DKNG: 2025/2026 consensus revenue and EBITDA are at risk as Kalshi takes share, sportsbook hold rate compresses from 6-8% toward 1.5-3%, and sell-side price targets — still averaging $53 — must re-rate downward.", "thesisOneLiner": "Federally-regulated prediction exchange Kalshi is disrupting DKNG's sportsbook with ~1.5% fees versus 8-10% vig, threatening consensus revenue and forcing a multiple rerating for 35-60% downside.", "precedentsCited": [ "Genius Sports (GENI) 2021 Spruce Point short — -86% decline, financial restatement", "iRobot (IRBT) 2017 Spruce Point short — competitive-disruption thesis", "2U (TWOU) 2018 Spruce Point short — competitive-disruption thesis", "Flutter/FanDuel CME partnership explicitly excluding sports — as contrast to Kalshi's sports play" ], "scqaComplication": "CFTC-regulated prediction exchanges Kalshi and Polymarket, enabled by federal preemption of state gaming laws and Trump-nominated CFTC leadership, are capturing NFL (~30%) and NCAA football (~79%) handle at ~1.5% fees versus DKNG's 8-10% vig.", "narrativeInterest": 4, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 11, 14, 17, 33, 36 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Flutter / FanDuel", "Kalshi", "Polymarket", "CME Group", "Robinhood", "Webull", "Genius Sports (GENI)", "iRobot (IRBT)", "2U (TWOU)", "Railbird" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison" ], "visualCraftInterest": 3 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, "profile": null }, "slides": [ { "page": 1, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a screenshot of a prediction market as a proxy for market sentiment/risk 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It references specific regulatory events in 2025 involving the CFTC, Kalshi, and Polymarket.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.989+00", "seconds": 4.663, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/6", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-6", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point has been following the DKNG story closely, and despite the recent share price movement and other prescient short-seller critiques, we believe there is still significantly more downside risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-5ec79a5193ad", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.38, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.59 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates the prediction exchanges as designated contract markets (DCMs) under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). This federal jurisdiction effectively preempts state gaming laws, a critical distinction that allows prediction exchanges to operate nationwide rather than on a state-by-state basis. Spruce Point believes the regulatory landscape has shifted materially in the U.S. especially given KalshiEX LLC and its parent company Kalshi Inc. (Kalshi) listed sports prediction contracts three days after Trump was inaugurated. In May 2025, the CFTC voluntarily dismissed its appeal of a federal court ruling that allowed Kalshi to list certain event contracts, including those for election outcomes, marking a shift in the CFTC's stance toward these types of contracts. In July 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and the CFTC formally ended their investigations into Polymarket, the world's largest crypto-based prediction exchange platform, without bringing any new charges. On September 3, 2025, the CFTC issued a no-action letter regarding event contracts. The letter, issued in response to a request from QCX LLC, a DCM and QC Clearing LLC, a derivatives clearing organization, both owned by Polymarket, in essence gives Polymarket a regulatory green light to re-enter the U.S. market. We believe it is important to note that Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor to Kalshi and both an advisor to and investor in Polymarket through 1789 Capital. In February 2025, President Trump nominated former Commissioner Brian Quintenz to be the next CFTC Chairman. It is our understanding that Brian Quintenz is currently an equity holder and on the Board of Kalshi. While Mr. Quintenz's nomination was withdrawn one potential new candidate is a partner at Milbank who represents Kalshi in their state cases.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.989+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "bb68043e-5de3-4dc2-9b5e-470652f22c9d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "After conducting a forensic review of DraftKings Inc. (Nasdaq: DKNG) (\"DKNG\" or the \"Company\"), we have serious concerns regarding the impact to DKNG's sportsbook market share given the significant volume, or handle, being generated in the prediction markets for sports betting.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.989+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e62117b2-40fa-459e-8e44-454eb576f3d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.36 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Prediction markets are federally regulated exchanges where participants trade contracts based on the outcomes of future events. Unlike a sportsbook, which acts as the house, sets odds, and is taxed heavily by states on gross gaming revenue, a prediction exchange matches buyers and sellers peer-to-peer and charges a small transaction fee. While prediction exchanges have existed for many years in limited form, they exploded in popularity in 2024 thanks to the introduction of contracts that allowed people to bet on elections. There was over $3.5 billion of trading volume on prediction exchanges during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.989+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fd87a3f6-0fff-4791-bd05-22f008651462", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Issues \"Strong Sell\" Recommendation On DraftKings Inc. 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The central conflict is whether event contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the federal government or a form of gambling regulated by the states.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.564+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0e5e6353-4d66-4328-a002-f7646cd84a6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.025, "w": 0.67, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.395 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point Believes Kalshi Will Continue To Operate While Litigation Continues", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.564+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3d7ab4ed-dd43-4297-9a2a-99e6c3e7cf6f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.48, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.445 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Regulators in states such as Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland issued cease-and-desist orders to Kalshi... 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Our position is we do not believe DKNG or any other OSB operator would risk their gaming licenses by launching sports prediction exchanges in the next 3-6 months or in the next year or two while the CFTC and the states are potentially embroiled in further litigation or a pending SCOTUS decision. Flutter/FanDuel's partnership with CME was very clear to exclude sports. Even if DKNG decides to launch a sports prediction exchange on their own or acquire Railbird, our research indicates it could take 6-18 months for final CFTC approval and launch. With DKNG and the other OSB operators on the sidelines, Kalshi, Polymarket and others can continue to take market share. Individuals in CA, TX, GA, and the other 21 states where DKNG does not operate likely have never heard of Kalshi, Polymarket, etc. as most may assume all betting is prohibited. We believe the individuals who do know the prediction exchanges are those already in online sportsbook states, familiar with betting platforms, and often active across multiple operators to chase promotions or better odds. We do acknowledge Kalshi's partnership with Webull and Robinhood which has 26.5 million funded accounts across the U.S. Spruce Point also believes the impact to DKNG could be more severe given in 2024, 61% of its revenue came from its U.S. sportsbook vs. only 29% for Flutter.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.921+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "065967c2-7afd-44ad-a227-21763d229649", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.39 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe DKNG and the other OSB operators are stuck between a rock and a hard place. From our understanding, the Ohio Casino Control Commission is one of the more prominent gaming regulators across the country. The commission has warned licensed sportsbooks in the state that offering or associating with prediction exchanges could put their licenses at risk. We also believe that Flutter appeared before the Nevada gaming commission where they addressed questions regarding a potential arrangement with Kalshi. Finally, we believe the nail in the coffin on this topic is the fact that the Arizona Department of Gaming recently warned OSBs that offering prediction markets inside or outside of AZ may jeopardize their licenses.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.921+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "97b2a21d-f399-4b3b-acb8-2231ef618701", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It is very important to note, when considering injunctions, federal judges are required to apply two key tests: irreparable harm and public interest. We believe Kalshi's sportsbook-level handle on its exchange speaks directly to both.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.921+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e8c276a6-06a9-4ae3-bc7a-60ec00ab2c10", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.34 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We Believe Prediction Markets Are Unlikely To Expand TAM For OSBs In The Near Future", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.921+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "82bac037-02f0-4fdc-93ca-3412f366a8aa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.38, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.921+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cda35612-25a4-4acd-afef-bc7c208cfaae", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 9, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a yellow-bordered box to highlight key arguments regarding market disruption and competitive advantage.", "function": "summarize", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 84, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2884, "nDataPoints": 14, "notes": "The slide uses a yellow-bordered box to highlight key arguments regarding market disruption and competitive advantage.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "seconds": 5.753, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/9", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-9", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe the scale of the disruption is already evident.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-8396a1a1dbce", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "handle: ~$150 billion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-84b8677e132c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.956, "x": 0.022, "y": 0.74 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe the scale of the disruption is already evident. During the first four weeks of the NFL season, Kalshi generated on average $277 million of handle per week. This represents ~30% of the weekly NFL handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24. During the first five weeks of the NCAA football season, Kalshi generated on average $187 million of handle per week. This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24. In five weeks, Kalshi grew its NCAA football handle by 80% and in four weeks grew its NFL handle by 19%. Spruce Point believes the disruption is clear given DKNG's NY sportsbook handle declined 8.9% from Week 3 to Week 4 of the NFL season in '25 vs 8.1% growth in '24. Kalshi grew its NFL and NCAA football handle by 31% in the same week, a widening divergence that highlights Kalshi's potential share capture at DKNG's expense.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "11243b1e-7e8d-4624-97f9-cfc35d251435", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.956, "x": 0.022, "y": 0.475 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In 2024, the total handle from the licensed online sportsbooks across 33 reporting markets combined to generate ~$150 billion (DKNG operates in 26 of the 33 states). The state of NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering by operator and reports the total combined figure. In 2024, NY generated a total of $22.7 billion in sports wagering and from Sept.-Dec. 2024, total weekly sports wagering averaged $513 million per week. We grossed up NY's $513 million per week by 6.6x ($150 billion / $22.7 billion) to get to an estimate for the weekly sports wagering for all 33 reporting markets. During Sept.-Dec. 2024, we estimate $3.4 billion of weekly sports wagers in the 33 reporting markets. The state of CO publishes the monthly amount of sport wagering by sport. From Sept.-Dec. 2024, the NFL and NCAA football games represented on average 27% and 7% of total sport wagering, respectively (excluding parlays). Based on these figures we estimate the 2024 total weekly NFL and NCAA football handle to be ~$914 million and ~$237 million, respectively.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "30487bfc-db38-4c28-b7c3-ebe6d7242484", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.022, "y": 0.00185 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Kalshi Appears to Offer Better Odds Than DKNG", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "99ae4792-3743-4588-a48b-1b7947576eb9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.022, "y": 0.425 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Kalshi Handle For NFL And NCAA Football Should Be Setting Off the Fire Alarm", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b3c649d9-f82f-4385-aac7-27090dbc2dfb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.956, "x": 0.022, "y": 0.235 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While investors and sell-side analysts continue to debate the long-term TAM question, Spruce Point has been closely monitoring Kalshi's odds and reported handle. There seems to be a lot of debate around the odds offered on prediction exchanges vs. OSBs. While we acknowledge there are going to be variances, we believe the economics favor Kalshi. We believe on average Kalshi charges just 1–2% per trade, while DKNG builds in an 8–10% vig and further adjusts its odds to protect its book. We believe sportsbook customers consistently shop for better odds. We do not think it will take long for the market to recognize this opportunity and in fact we believe it is already happening.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e84b0748-e8f1-439c-b107-772fca890a09", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.375, "x": 0.312, "y": 0.055 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Executive Summary", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:37.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "09554d53-ca18-4779-b021-fbd9294de6af", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 10, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a yellow background callout box to emphasize the core thesis regarding market misinterpretation.", "function": "summarize", "rawType": "executive_summary", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "executive_summary", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Executive summary", "slug": "executive_summary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-06be-73ff-81b3-f99fe7f0025e", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "summarize", "functionCanon": { "name": "Summarize", "slug": "summarize", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1541-704f-b86f-bf7b75056373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 53, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 614, "nDataPoints": 8, "notes": "The slide uses a yellow background callout box to emphasize the core thesis regarding market misinterpretation.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "callout_box" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.943+00", "seconds": 3.13, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/10", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-10", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.345 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "We Believe The Market Has Misinterpreted Kalshi’s Handle And Hold Rate", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.943+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c6c80fe7-1b80-44b9-b928-b6ca2dcdcee8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Put another way, every dollar of handle on Kalshi is a dollar decision to use Kalshi over DKNG.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-6e62d001fda2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "hold rate: 1.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-714d70ca8749", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Typically, OSB operators keep $8–$10 of revenue on every $100 wagered... DKNG's hold rate could fall from 6-8% to the 1.5% to 3% range.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.943+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "362fcf7b-b6bb-4ba6-84c7-7fd47d912f1b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We believe the market has attempted to dismiss Kalshi's handle as inflated... every dollar of handle on Kalshi is a dollar decision to use Kalshi over DKNG.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:34.943+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45db63b7-8f86-40df-a926-066dd8b1471f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We see more alarm bells from Kalshi filing to self certify for parlays... 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We expect DKNG’s share price to underperform the gaming industry and overall equity market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6544da8c-1a19-4125-8361-de24665b872b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Based on our analysis, we estimate approximately 35% to 60% potential downside risk ($14 to $22 per share).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-b04e8f2f6f01", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "downside risk: 35% - 60%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-b4b2b30e34a0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that analysts are downplaying the tectonic shift that we believe is occurring in the sports betting market and its impact on DKNG. Analysts are using emotionally charged language and softening concerns with words like “potentially challenging” to justify buying its shares. However, with some analysts still projecting a price target over $60, a dozen analysts making no recent price target change at all, and the consensus target at $53 per share, we still see a wave of downgrades and disappointment as likely to pressure the stock.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0fe7b464-4e3e-4aae-ac15-791a1912dbe4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.23 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes the launch of sports prediction exchanges comes at an unfortunate time in DKNG’s history. The Company is finally seeing some operating leverage and is starting to generate cash, however, average monthly unique player growth slowed from 57% YoY in Q3 ’24 to just 6% YoY in Q2 ’25. Handle grew ~15% YoY in both Q4 ’24 and Q1 ’25 but is down to just 6.3% YoY growth in Q2 ’25. The Company has done a nice job at diversifying away from its core OSB business but we believe further growth in iCasino will be challenging, states will likely continue to increase taxes, and the highly competitive and somewhat mature OSB marketplace will likely curtail handle growth. To our knowledge, Missouri and Alberta, Canada are the only two new markets expected through 2027. It’s not a question of are the sports prediction exchanges taking market share but rather a question of how much market share and how long can they seize on this opportunity. We believe DKNG’s 2025 and 2026 consensus revenue estimates appear very aggressive and DKNG’s revenue multiple will contract well below its historical average.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6506bf42-0252-4e0a-bfda-cc345a419aec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "We See 35% - 60% Downside Risk Potential In DKNG’s Share Price", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.6+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4d76445d-5469-42b1-8fc1-eadaa799d7c1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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Prediction exchanges do not set the odds, users do. We believe Kalshi only charges ~1.5% on average to users per trade vs. the 8–10% DKNG margin. If DKNG eventually competes against sport prediction exchanges Spruce Point believes it will pressure DKNG's sportsbook net revenue margin or hold rate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.63+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "94bcb195-c18d-4855-9ab2-cf5fefc9086d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kalshi app on August 20th. 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We acknowledge this data set is limited but we believe Kalshi will predominantly have better odds due to its structure as an exchange.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.007+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e651ee42-ac30-4d2a-964c-e4fa4948d748", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: See Kalshi odds screenshots in the appendix.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This represents ~30% of the weekly NFL handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. ‘24.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-beff135139c5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "OSBs vs. Kalshi Week 1 – 4 Weekly NFL Handle ($ in millions)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Stacked bar chart", "slug": "bar-stacked", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-feec-74bf-9028-15b74f84f0a7", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-stacked", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "046ca93b-486e-4081-950b-bd9e62d4c727", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "weekly NFL handle: $277 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-c3ac426e847f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Screenshots of handle in Appendix. We assume $150 billion OSB market across 33 reporting markets. NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering and CO monthly sport wagering.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1636b8e8-de6a-451b-a3d2-5a1d726b03ba", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Kalshi Week 1 – 4 NFL Football Handle Should Set Off The Fire Alarm", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.387+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eaccc9fe-6ee0-4266-afb5-9cdb17c74fb4", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "1fe3f2db-9941-4d09-8a4b-bb2e75d91db2", "evidence": "Discussion of potential downside risk for DKNG investors", "position": 0, "objective": "What is the cost of inaction for DKNG investors?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:53.46576+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 18, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a comparison to DKNG to frame Kalshi as a competitive threat.", "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 47, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 762, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "The slide uses a comparison to DKNG to frame Kalshi as a competitive threat.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "bar_chart_vertical", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "seconds": 3.349, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/18", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-18", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "We estimate DKNG averaged $307 million (excluding parlays) in weekly NFL handle during the first four weeks of the 2025 season. Kalshi has already topped this benchmark in Week 4. Kalshi has grown its NFL handle by 19% from Week 1 to Week 4. Momentum is accelerating organically, without material ad spend, highlighting Kalshi's disruptive risk to DKNG.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51fe0cc6-305c-43a1-91d6-c731e4968d04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Momentum is accelerating organically, without material ad spend, highlighting Kalshi's disruptive risk to DKNG.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-f03a1f15f895", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.3 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Kalshi Week 1 – 4 NFL Handle ($ in millions)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37eb7a3f-cfe5-4cef-b2df-752e92b1ff35", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "NFL handle: $328", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962a-f7ee1a92bb35", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Screenshots of handle in Appendix. We assume NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering and CO monthly sport wagering. Spruce Point red emphasis.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4f925eb1-7644-4059-9791-294ee6e12ad6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Kalshi Week 1 – 4 NFL Football Handle Should Set Off The Fire Alarm (Cont'd)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "89445dee-fb94-4946-9e4c-8043a211b314", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "06f6d094-764d-4ec8-a725-0ba3995d657e", "evidence": "Comparing Kalshi's growth against DKNG's benchmark to establish competitive threat.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.03+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 18, "frameworkName": "comparison-frame" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 20, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "The Struggle", "beatId": "4e1c17fc-d0a4-422f-b00f-a3e72a45a04a", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Struggle", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-struggle", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3d24-71b1-9262-9a8f9850fda3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "1fe3f2db-9941-4d09-8a4b-bb2e75d91db2", "evidence": "Discussion of potential downside risk for DKNG investors", "position": 0, "objective": "What is the cost of inaction for DKNG investors?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:53.46576+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 19, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a stacked bar chart for the OSB side and a single bar for Kalshi to imply an outsized market share.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "comparison_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "comparison_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Comparison table", "slug": "comparison_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0a06-73f8-8813-fe022fab1de2", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 51, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 909, "nDataPoints": 5, "notes": "The slide uses a stacked bar chart for the OSB side and a single bar for Kalshi to imply an outsized market share.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "bar_chart_stacked", "bar_chart_vertical", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.409+00", "seconds": 2.713, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/19", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-19", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. ‘24.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-26d4ef23a77a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.5, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.1, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "OSBs vs. Kalshi Week 1 – 5 NCAA Football Handle ($ in millions)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Stacked bar chart", "slug": "bar-stacked", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-feec-74bf-9028-15b74f84f0a7", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-stacked", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.409+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "176a1ae4-c380-4c62-a7c7-93a5330ea96a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "weekly handle: $187 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-2b6ba6245f41", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In 2024, we estimate U.S. OSB operators averaged $3.4 billion in weekly handle across all sports during the football season. We estimate NCAA football, excluding parlays, accounted for $237 million per week (7% of total). On average Kalshi generated $187 million of handle per week in the first five weeks of the 2025 NCAA football season. This represents ~79% of the weekly NCAA football handle that the OSB operators generated during Sept.-Dec. '24.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.409+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cc9d948e-97ac-4c40-aa33-a05cc10ac103", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Screen shots of handle in Appendix. We assume $150 billion OSB market across 33 reporting markets. NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering and CO monthly sport wagering.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The result: Kalshi is capturing would-be DKNG users three years before they can legally bet on sportsbooks, potentially hurting DKNG’s future pipeline of users.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-41252c8afc68", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "OSBs vs. Kalshi Week 1 – 5 NCAA Football Handle ($ in millions)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.012+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4441d7da-1739-4da5-b302-df029aded131", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "NCAA football handle: $297 million", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-4427e7a6dc61", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We estimate DKNG averaged $77 million (excluding parlays) in NCAA football handle during the first five weeks of the 2025 season. By contrast, Kalshi alone posted $297 million in Week 5. We believe a meaningful share of NCAA handle is driven by college students, since Kalshi is 18+ versus OSBs at 21+. The result: Kalshi is capturing would-be DKNG users three years before they can legally bet on sportsbooks, potentially hurting DKNG's future pipeline of users. 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We assume NY Gaming Commission reports weekly sports wagering and CO monthly sport wagering. Spruce Point red emphasis.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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DKNG is almost entirely U.S.-dependent, with ~61% of its total revenue coming from its U.S. sportsbook, compared to just 29% for FLUT. 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Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 30, "from": 21, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6846-74db-82be-dff5b058b072", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication", "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "49d99ab9-43c1-421b-a5bc-e4a686ad16c3", "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance", "position": 1, "objective": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:53.507611+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 23, "type": "setup", "title": "The slide uses a bottom-up adjustment to consensus estimates based on observed handle impact from prediction markets.", "function": "quantify_opportunity", "rawType": "revenue_buildup", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "revenue_buildup", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Revenue buildup", "slug": "revenue_buildup", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-0acd-70b8-a81d-62d89840409b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "quantify_opportunity", "functionCanon": { "name": "Quantify opportunity", "slug": "quantify_opportunity", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-17e4-726f-aa15-83350acef1dd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 50, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 771, "nDataPoints": 32, "notes": "The slide uses a bottom-up adjustment to consensus estimates based on observed handle impact from prediction markets.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.763+00", "seconds": 2.8, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/23", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-23", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Conservatively we estimate DKNG could potentially miss full year '25 consensus revenue estimates by 6.2%.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-769833f04088", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue miss: 6.2%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:11+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962b-7b512d70bdd5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point adjusted DKNG's Q3 '25 and Q4 '25 handle based upon Kalshi's handle for the first few weeks of the 2025 NFL and NCAA football seasons. We assume all of DKNG's sportsbook handle is affected except the parlay book of business. Conservatively we estimate DKNG could potentially miss full year '25 consensus revenue estimates by 6.2%. We also illustrate a sensitivity analysis on the next page.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.763+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b1037c88-0849-43de-ab0c-ce0a1c8cf1b0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Notes: (1) DKNG handle only affected for one month (22.2%*.33). (2) See all assumptions in Appendix.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.763+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13f45f32-8c63-4053-a525-10f010d37074", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Q1/Q2 actuals and Q3/Q4 estimates for DKNG revenue components", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.763+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "49cffb2b-0ab5-4be3-874c-466072e465fd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point Believes Sports Prediction Exchanges Will Take Significant Market Share", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:35.763+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "55686f3e-6f4f-4db7-854e-6a8f3cbee6e1", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 36, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 21, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "a1f273fe-b0d3-4fa9-9220-3fd4db79ea3c", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 30, "from": 21, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6846-74db-82be-dff5b058b072", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication", "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "49d99ab9-43c1-421b-a5bc-e4a686ad16c3", "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance", "position": 1, "objective": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:53.507611+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 24, "type": "setup", "title": "The table models five scenarios ranging from 'Most Conservative' to 'Most Aggressive' to demonstrate potential revenue misses.", "function": "quantify_opportunity", "rawType": "scenario_table", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "scenario_table", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Scenario table", "slug": "scenario_table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-129c-7393-8845-c5e595ce9a7b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "quantify_opportunity", "functionCanon": { "name": "Quantify opportunity", "slug": "quantify_opportunity", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-17e4-726f-aa15-83350acef1dd", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 53, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 876, "nDataPoints": 25, "notes": "The table models five scenarios ranging from 'Most Conservative' to 'Most Aggressive' to demonstrate potential revenue misses.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "comparison_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.001+00", "seconds": 2.906, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/24", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-24", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point believes Kalshi will continue to operate while in litigation and DKNG's full year '25 revenue consensus is likely at risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-3dd4bfdb8f1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Miss Over Full Year '25 Consensus: -11.9%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-42fe69dd22f4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Consensus hold rates for Q3 '25 and Q4 '25 are 6.9% and 8.0%, respectively. We acknowledge the uplift in recent quarters from parlays and promotional mix but the average hold rate for the past six quarters is 6.6%. Kalshi continues to grow its weekly handle and we believe is taking direct share from DKNG. Spruce Point believes Kalshi will continue to operate while in litigation and DKNG's full year '25 revenue consensus is likely at risk.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.001+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9a728a6e-7d2f-4189-8f9a-a378be365d22", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Note: See all assumptions in Appendix. 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Over the last six quarters DNKG's hold rate averaged 6.6%. We acknowledge parlays and promotional mix drove the hold rate to 8.7% in Q2' 25 but we do not expect that to be the norm. 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"019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "08f383ed-1375-467f-bd18-57ac3f1471c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.515, "y": 0.505 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, known as 50¢ Dollars on Substack, a former Kalshi employee, and prediction market expert estimates revenue to be ~1.3% of volume or handle.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d1e5bccb-07ac-4d57-a493-0ce3d3f70772", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.505 }, "kind": "list", "text": "InGame reviewed millions of Kalshi trades from February to 2025 (over $1B in reported volume) and applied Kalshi’s published fee schedule to every contract, estimating $15.2M in fees or ~1.5% hold rate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d6c2f090-55e5-4f71-8a95-9726f8da36b9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.205, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "metric", "text": "$2.6 / $196 = 1.3%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Big number", "slug": "big-number", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc70-70c8-b965-0584548a9204", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "big-number", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "279925c7-6ba9-480f-a249-7c32d1b616a4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "hold rate: 1.5%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962d-7d7062e8c2d1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Typically, OSB operators keep $8–$10 of revenue on every $100 wagered through their 8–10% vig or margin. The 8-10% is the built-in margin if bets were perfectly balanced. DKNG’s actual sportsbook hold is ~6-8%. Spruce Point believes there is some perception by the market recently that the exchanges hold rate is ~4%. Spruce Point’s research indicates the hold rate is closer to ~1.5%. In other words, if DKNG pivots into exchanges in the coming years, the TAM expansion opportunity touted by sell-side equity analysts and others might not meet expectations. In addition, once all the litigation settles, we believe sports prediction exchanges will either operate in all 50 states or none unless the exchanges pivot to gambling licenses and paying taxes. We believe there is a TAM expansion opportunity for DKNG if the sports exchanges are free to operate in the 50 states but we believe it is also a very significant TAM and EBITDA detractor for DKNG’s business in its current 26 state sportsbook presence as a large portion of DKNG’s hold rate could fall from 6-8% down to the 1.5% to 3% range.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3a3b3883-1ede-4689-8875-bc5ff1b2c259", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, known as 50¢ Dollars on Substack, a former Kalshi employee, and prediction market expert estimates revenue to be ~1.3% of volume or handle.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:14+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962d-79b1e6b56fb0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.975 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kalshi fee schedule.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fc1055ad-3d59-4f76-a306-5caa43b5ef30", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.384, "x": 0.308, "y": 0.035 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Market Misperceptions: Hold Rate", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 21:04:51.124+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a7c6b6c1-14a1-4922-9344-a70105f9433c", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 36, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 21, "name": "The Victory", "beatId": "a1f273fe-b0d3-4fa9-9220-3fd4db79ea3c", "matchId": "1581aa17-c507-41c6-87f4-cc85d66e958f", "beatType": { "name": "The Victory", "slug": "overcoming-monster-the-victory", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-3dbe-71b9-b5a9-7191b5f8782b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline", "position": 2, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Turn", "slug": "turn", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0396-702b-ac2f-9901f8dd8b54", "version": 1, "description": "The pivot — solution proposed, catalyst introduced, decision made. Common (15/20 arcs) but not universal: Triple-take, AIDA, PAS, Voyage-return and Pixar substitute it with a strong reflection or development beat." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 30, "from": 21, "loop": { "name": "06_zoom_in", "slug": "06-zoom-in", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Technical deep-dives, case studies, detailed analysis", "canonId": "019dd956-6846-74db-82be-dff5b058b072", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Big Picture -> Key Area of Focus -> Specific Detail -> Implication", "description": "Start broad, then progressively focus on specific details that prove your point", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "49d99ab9-43c1-421b-a5bc-e4a686ad16c3", "evidence": "Detailed comparison of Kalshi and DKNG's performance", "position": 1, "objective": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:53.507611+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 31, "type": "tension", "title": "The slide uses a side-by-side comparison to highlight a calculation error in a sell-side report.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 59, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 753, "nDataPoints": 40, "notes": "The slide uses a side-by-side comparison to highlight a calculation error in a sell-side report.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "callout_box", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.935+00", "seconds": 2.801, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e/31", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e#slide-31", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b99-c6da1f4c0f8e.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We believe Barclays' chart makes Kalshi's hold rate look much higher when measured against true notional traded (both sides).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-6ccba49b2e69", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Fee % of Notional: 1.1%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 02:36:12+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-78b7-702e-962c-7041c201d4b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.958, "x": 0.021, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes Barclays may have misinterpreted how Kalshi's fees work. Remember, contracts with Kalshi have two sides. We believe Barclays treated each bet or contract as just the buyer's spend but every contract also has a seller counterparty.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:36.935+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ede9b019-473c-42e5-a771-4a3cc19623cb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.021, "y": 0.975 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Kalshi fee schedule, Sept 2025. 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Consensus estimates project $54.5 billion in handle and $4.1 billion in revenue from DKNG's sportsbook for 2025. 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"confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:38.448+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f3a5695a-75c4-4ee6-85c9-dd9cc2f2659b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that analysts are downplaying the tectonic shift that we believe is occurring in the sports betting market and its impact on DKNG.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, 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Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:39.423+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df818be5-4108-41dd-822c-803fde153a6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.386, "x": 0.307, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Kalshi vs. DKNG Odds Screenshots", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:24:39.423+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3fad6852-1121-431f-83b7-a05b7272e6a6", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true } ], "arcBeats": [ { "from": 1, "to": 5, "label": "The Monster", "description": "Introduction of Kalshi as a competitive threat to DKNG" }, { "from": 6, "to": 20, "label": "The Struggle", "description": "Detailed analysis of Kalshi's advantages and DKNG's challenges" }, { "from": 21, "to": 36, "label": "The Victory", "description": "Conclusion that DKNG's share price will decline" } ], "loops": [ { "from": 10, "to": 20, "label": "Cost Of Inaction", "description": "What is the cost of inaction for DKNG investors?" }, { "from": 21, "to": 30, "label": "Zoom In", "description": "How does Kalshi's performance compare to DKNG's?" } ] }