Ben Axler · activist-deck
Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)
89 pages · 3 arc beats · 2 loops
Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)
Ben Axler · 2020-11 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
3 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 46 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem 11 slides 100% 11/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides · 66 hits — 0/11 slides
27.3% 3/11 slides · 4 hits 63.6% 7/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides 54.5% 6/11 slides Agitate 25 slides 100% 25/25 slides 100% 25/25 slides · 176 hits — 0/25 slides
— 0/25 slides
84% 21/25 slides 100% 25/25 slides 64% 16/25 slides Solution 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 63 hits — 0/10 slides
20% 2/10 slides 70% 7/10 slides · 8 hits 100% 10/10 slides — 0/10 slides
Slide inventory
89 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The slide uses a visual metaphor of pests (rat, cockroaches) crawling over a grid of 'Strong Sell: Avoid' warning labels to imply infestation or toxicity in thefront_matter
03
The slide uses a quote from Ben Axler to frame the thesis that S&P 500 status does not protect investors from corporate malfeasance.cite_precedent
06
The slide uses a classic activist short-seller structure: thesis statement, governance critique, and a list of 'headwinds' to justify the valuation downside.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
07
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, focusing on 'financial strain' and 'accounting manipulation'.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
08
The slide uses a structured list format to present multiple pillars of an activist short thesis.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
09
The slide uses a matrix-like structure to compare business segments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
10
The table demonstrates the impact of adding back unfunded pension, operating leases, and environmental liabilities to the enterprise value.show_valuation_bridge
11
The slide uses a callout box to frame the narrative and annotations to link specific negative events to the stock price history.expose_contradiction
12
The slide uses a red box to highlight the FY 2020E column, emphasizing the discrepancy between reported and adjusted figures.expose_contradiction
13
The slide uses a red box to highlight the calculated 'Organic EBIT Decline' of ($22.8m).analyze_data
14
The slide uses a bearish thesis to justify a significant price target reduction based on normalized financials.show_valuation_bridge
16
The slide uses a dual-axis approach (bar for annual, line for cumulative) to emphasize the scale of capital deployment vs. lack of FCF growth.expose_contradiction
17
The slide uses a table to categorize risks, providing a clear 'Headwind/Risk' vs 'Description' structure.diagnose_problem
18
Uses a combination of historical CEO quotes and industry expert testimony to highlight a potential strategic omission by management.expose_contradiction
19
Uses a call-and-response format to highlight skepticism regarding corporate margin reporting.expose_contradiction
20
Uses a 'villain' framing (Avery) and contrasts their quote with industry growth data.expose_contradiction
21
Uses a call-and-response format to validate the activist thesis.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
22
Uses a call-and-response structure to undermine company claims.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
23
Uses expert testimony to undermine management's growth narrative for the RFID segment.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
24
The chart illustrates the 'V-shaped' drop in retail sales for clothing and accessories during the pandemic.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
25
Uses a dialogue-based format to highlight discrepancies between management's narrative and industry expert insights.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
26
Uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting how private equity-driven consolidation shifts bargaining power away from Avery.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
27
Uses direct quotes from 2018 and 2019 annual reports to build a case for potential goodwill impairment.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
28
The slide uses a red bracket to visually group the 2020 departures as 'Accelerated Departures'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
29
Uses screenshots of Glassdoor reviews to validate claims of operational chaos and poor management.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
31
Includes a specific callout box citing a 2015 10-K regarding accounting errors.expose_contradiction
32
The slide uses red 'X' marks to visually emphasize the negative nature of the missing disclosures.expose_contradiction
33
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific data points that contradict the expected industry trend of margin decline.expose_contradiction
34
Uses a combination of expert quote, risk factor comparison, and a historical data table to build a case for declining R&D commitment.expose_contradiction
35
The table uses a diagonal layout to show how the same fiscal year's R&D expense is restated in subsequent annual filings.expose_contradiction
36
The slide uses a red box to highlight the final calculated 'Organic EBIT Decline' column.analyze_data
37
Uses a red box and arrow to visually link the old and new terminology in the financial tables.expose_contradiction
38
The slide highlights an accounting change where customer return allowances were moved to 'Other Current Liabilities'.expose_contradiction
39
The slide uses a 'Beat vs. (Miss)' row to emphasize the negative variance in Q4 guidance.preempt_rebuttal
40
Uses a red arrow to point out the discrepancy between the company's stated capital sources and the actual cash balance.expose_contradiction
41
Includes a red 'X' annotation over the 2019 disclosure table to emphasize it is no longer provided.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
42
The slide uses a 'before-after' style comparison of company-provided data versus SEC filing disclosures to expose accounting manipulation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
43
The slide uses red boxes to highlight the specific line items where tax-affected pension contributions are added back to free cash flow.cite_precedent
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
44
The table demonstrates a significant divergence in FCF trends due to Spruce Point's adjustments for pension settlements, stock compensation tax impacts, and othexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
45
The slide uses a 'back-of-the-envelope' check to highlight a discrepancy in cash flow reporting.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
46
The slide uses a red box to highlight the FY 2020E projections and adjustments.expose_contradiction
47
Uses two tables to contrast dividend growth and share buyback trends against company claims.expose_contradiction
48
Uses callouts to contrast quotes from different quarters to show lack of precision.expose_contradiction
49
Uses a table to calculate 'Cash Available' and then presents two specific quotes from SEC filings to highlight management's hedging language.expose_contradiction
50
Uses a LinkedIn profile screenshot and a historical report snippet to establish a pattern of behavior.expose_contradiction
51
Uses two tables from different sections of the 10-K to highlight a discrepancy between reported tax rates and actual cash outflows.expose_contradiction
52
Uses a table to show the growth in tax risk disclosure word counts and a callout box to highlight specific concerning language from the 2018 10-K.expose_contradiction
53
Uses callout boxes to emphasize specific regulatory and audit-related risks found in SEC filings.expose_contradiction
54
The slide highlights a trend of rising tax compliance and planning fees paid to the auditor, suggesting potential aggressive tax accounting or governance concerexpose_contradiction
55
The slide uses a comparison table to highlight the discrepancy between company-reported metrics and analyst-adjusted metrics.expose_contradiction
56
The slide uses a tree logo, likely representing Spruce Point Capital Management.transition
57
The slide uses a dual-axis chart to show the annual impact vs the massive cumulative $1B impact.expose_contradiction
58
The slide uses a comparison of two text blocks from 10-K filings to show the removal of a specific liability recognition clause.expose_contradiction
59
The slide uses a red box and arrow to draw attention to the discrepancy in cash payments ($9.8m vs $26.0m) and the omission of 2015/2016 actions in the 2019 repexpose_contradiction
60
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight the specific numerical mismatch between reporting periods.expose_contradiction
61
The slide uses a callout to point out that high job losses are associated with abnormally low charges per job.expose_contradiction
62
The slide uses a table to highlight specific line items (restructuring charges and total debt) that the author claims are manipulated or misleading.expose_contradiction
63
The slide uses red callout boxes to emphasize 'Undisclosed' status for specific locations.expose_contradiction
64
Uses Wayback Machine and company website data to show zero change in location count.expose_contradiction
65
The slide features the Spruce Point Capital Management logo (the pine tree).transition
66
Uses a quote from the company to set up a contradiction with the activist's thesis.expose_contradiction
67
The slide uses a series of biographical snippets and SEC filing excerpts to highlight the omission of a problematic past directorship.expose_contradiction
68
The slide uses a 'guilt by association' framework to undermine the credibility of a specific board member.expose_contradiction
69
Uses screenshots of proxy statements and press releases to build a case of non-disclosure and guilt-by-association.expose_contradiction
70
The slide uses a red callout box to emphasize the SEC investigation into Alta Mesa, connecting it back to the individuals mentioned.expose_contradiction
72
Uses a quote from the company's proxy statement to contrast with the activist's critique of the board's financial oversight.expose_contradiction
73
The slide uses a red box and arrow to visually highlight the discrepancy in cash payments ($9.8m vs $26.0m) and the removal of 2015/16 data.expose_contradiction
74
Highlights the expansion of legal language in clawback provisions following identified accounting anomalies.expose_contradiction
75
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight specific line items in financial tables that the author claims are overstated.expose_contradiction
76
The slide uses a table to show specific performance modifiers and footnotes to explain the 'flawed' adjustments.expose_contradiction
77
Includes a table detailing 2018 AIP financial modifiers for various executives, highlighting the CEO's Adjusted EPS component.expose_contradiction
78
The slide uses excerpts from the company's own proxy statement and website to frame the auditor relationship as 'too cozy'.expose_contradiction
79
The red arrow emphasizes the downward trend in insider ownership.expose_contradiction
81
The slide uses arrows to visually emphasize the upward trend in price targets despite negative operational indicators.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
82
The table uses color coding (red rows) to highlight specific investors, likely those reducing positions or showing negative trends.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
83
The slide uses a 'Bulls vs Bears' comparison frame to highlight the disconnect between market optimism and operational reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
84
Uses a 'before-after' or 'contradiction' layout where the left side is the source document and the right side is the rebuttal.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
85
The slide uses Bloomberg terminal-style charts to highlight valuation multiple expansion.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
86
The slide uses a red circle to highlight negative revenue surprises, contrasting them with the green-colored positive EPS surprises.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
87
The table highlights that Avery Dennison (AVY) trades at higher multiples compared to the average of its peers, with Spruce Point's adjusted figures showing an compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
89
Includes detailed adjustments for liabilities and commentary on consensus estimates vs. Spruce Point's view.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution