{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "slug": "09bbf36d82e5", "title": "Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)", "subtitle": "Ben Axler · 2020-11", "author": "Ben Axler", "date": "2020-11-10 00:00:00", "pageCount": 89, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Avery Dennison Corporation", "targetTicker": "AVY", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "slug": "09bbf36d82e5", "title": "Avery Dennison Corporation (AVY)", "rawTitle": "64e7a0c998f16e3861a166ce avy research thesis 11 10 2020", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "authorDisplay": "Ben Axler", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2020-11-64e7a0c998f16e3861a166ce_avy_research_thesis_11-10-2020.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2020-11-10 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2020-11-10 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 21:24:43+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 89, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Avery Dennison Corporation", "targetTicker": "AVY", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/09bbf36d82e5", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 131.44667196273804 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 89, "pagesIndexed": 89, "pagesWithImages": 89, "pagesWithMetadata": 89, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 606, "chartCount": 24, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 12, "documentToolMatches": 6, "frameworkMatches": 73, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 2, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "evidence": "The deck follows a clear problem-agitate-solution structure, highlighting Avery Dennison's financial strain and risks", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:10.455049+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 15, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 5, "name": "Problem", "beatId": "7e7e3897-bd4b-48a1-bc38-57b53dd43d45", "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck identifies significant business challenges and financial strain facing Avery Dennison", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 16, "name": "Agitate", "beatId": "0c899a39-e9bd-4a86-98ef-bc50704d3fda", "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck highlights multiple signs of financial strain and improper accounting", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 10, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "852dfbfb-9aee-497a-baad-80fe2152772f", "evidence": "The deck highlights the risks of ignoring Avery Dennison's financial strain", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the consequences of ignoring Avery Dennison's financial strain?", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:10.603068+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 45, "from": 30, "loop": { "name": "42_hypothesis_test", "slug": "42-hypothesis-test", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Strategy validation, due diligence, research presentations", "canonId": "019dd956-76fd-7577-8bcd-d7d39f7c13a8", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Hypothesis -> Test 1 (Supports/Refutes) -> Test 2 (Supports/Refutes) -> Conclusion (Validated/Pivoted)", "description": "State a hypothesis upfront, then systematically prove or disprove it with evidence", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Consulting Framework", "categorySlug": "consulting-framework" }, "matchId": "68f4906a-25c3-4a6f-951c-526fc7a66652", "evidence": "The deck tests the hypothesis that Avery Dennison's financial performance is sustainable", "position": 1, "objective": "Is Avery Dennison's financial performance sustainable?", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:10.649586+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. 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The CEO built\nthe rope; you put it around their own neck.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "242ddda4-b406-4ec6-8ded-e6372519f41d", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When management credibility is the lever", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Maximum credibility**: no adjective you could write is as damning as the\n target's own prior statement.\n- **No rebuttal path**: management can't argue they didn't say it.\n- **It forces accountability onto a person**, not an institution — even if\n you aren't explicitly naming a villain elsewhere.\n- **Reporters amplify it**. 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Not \"management\" or \"the\nboard\". A named executive or director with a specific failure attributable to\nthem.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "588d6f9b-df5f-4ce3-b578-874931fde020", "evidence": "Peter K. Barker (Audit Committee chair); Mitchell Butier (CEO); PwC (auditor)", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- **Accountability needs a face.** Voters (shareholders, regulators,\n journalists) act faster against people than institutions.\n- **Credibility rises with specificity.** \"The CFO has repeatedly missed\n guidance\" > \"Management has missed guidance\".\n- It **pre-empts evasion**. An individual can be removed; an abstraction\n cannot.\n- It **forces the target to respond personally** — and their defensive\n response usually generates more attention for your thesis.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain slide", "slug": "villain-slide", "status": "active", "bestFor": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "canonId": "019dd9e1-518c-7404-976a-5be5a517b659", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "A dedicated slide presenting the named villain visually", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "b4fc4a9e-0661-4b3d-8141-5d0c6e725f08", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "In activist decks where the personality matters", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "Makes the antagonist concrete", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Audience Definition", "slug": "audience-definition", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-7f2a-775d-aeee-ff099bcb7756", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Six key questions: Who are they? 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What decisions can they make?", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "0652274b-b022-4841-b2bf-ad4849e91187", "evidence": "Spruce Point believes Avery’s shares do not deserve to trade near all-time highs as its business comes under multiple pressures and management has explicitly said it will face headwinds when global markets recov", "pageRefs": null, "priority": "Core", "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:11.652414+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Problem Statement Canvas", "slug": "problem-statement-canvas", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-839d-744b-ad11-9bf3e3642a18", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Structured definition of the problem: What? Who? Where? When? Scale?", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Architect" ], "matchId": "4d6e3cc7-5d49-43f0-9201-330a86122797", "evidence": "Spruce Point believes Avery’s shares do not deserve to trade near all-time highs as its business comes under multiple pressures and management has explicitly said it will face headwinds when global markets recov", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:11.687532+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 11, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Waterfall chart", "slug": "waterfall-chart", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "e2799da3-725f-44a9-a093-570f1f388e64", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "0bfcb298-e753-4442-9ddd-d0e79e3bd0a2", "evidence": "Spruce Point vs. Avery Adjusted Free Cash Flow Bridge", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:11.757603+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 12, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Analytical method", "slug": "analytical-method", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "b42c4911-7946-49b5-951c-5f3d23f4e2bd", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Diagnostic / structuring methods (5-whys, fishbone, issue tree, hypothesis-driven).", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "9b229644-eb8f-465b-b713-7019acf3ee22", "evidence": "Given Avery’s frequent restructuring and cost savings programs, we attempt to evaluate its ability to grow Operating Income (EBIT) absent these savings.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:03:11.82736+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 13, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": "common", "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Valuation: DCF", "slug": "dcf", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019df269-2031-7273-9014-0c70beb91e11", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df269-200e-76ea-8883-6ee35d39c836", "description": "You project free cash flows over an explicit forecast period (typically", "familyLabel": "valuation-move", "categoryName": "Analysis", "categorySlug": "analysis" }, "agent": "architect", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "architect" ], 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"review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Spruce Point's signature short-seller style: provocative cover (rats, cockroaches, 'STRONG SELL' warning labels), structured executive summary listing '10 Headwinds Downplayed', annotated long-form stock price timeline (p11), and side-by-side 'Avery says X / Spruce Point reality Y' bridge tables. Strong governance angle layered on top of accounting forensics — not just a numbers takedown but a named-villain campaign. Author attribution inferred from Ben Axler quote on p3 (Spruce Point founder/principal); cover lists firm only. Short-report so 'is_response_from_management' is false; thesis_types use 'fraud_exposure' (accounting manipulation claims) plus 'governance_board' (Audit Chair removal, auditor change, clawback ask). 'undervaluation' deliberately not used — this is the inverse (overvaluation short).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$68-$99 target vs. $152.35 = 35%-55% downside", "metric": "Spruce Point downside vs. share price" }, { "detail": "~$1bn over past 20 years; $197m booked 2017-Q2 2020", "metric": "Cumulative restructuring charges" }, { "detail": "Restated 62% lower without explanation, inflating Adjusted EPS to $6.06 vs. $5.90 normalized", "metric": "2018 restructuring charge restatement" }, { "detail": "Spruce Point estimates $260-270m FY2020E vs. Avery's ~$500m claim (-13% YoY vs. -2%)", "metric": "Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Spruce Point vs. Avery)" }, { "detail": "~$290m of disclosed cost savings vs. $266.7m Adj EBIT growth = $22.8m organic EBIT decline", "metric": "Cumulative cost savings 2015-2019" }, { "detail": "13.6x vs. long-term average of 8.8x and peer average of 8.5-9.5x", "metric": "EV/NTM EBITDA multiple" }, { "detail": "Collapsed from 3.8% (3.8m shares, 2013) to 1.1% (880k shares, 2020) — all-time low", "metric": "Insider ownership" }, { "detail": "60% weighting; 130% modifier in 2018 paid on overstated $6.06 figure", "metric": "CEO bonus tied to Adjusted EPS" }, { "detail": "Spruce Point adjusted: 2.3x vs. Avery reported 1.9x including pension, leases, environmental", "metric": "Net Debt / 2020E EBITDA" } ], "closingAsk": "Spruce Point calls on Avery to form an independent committee and hire an independent investigator to evaluate our findings of accounting manipulation, and urges shareholders to demand a new auditor and clawback of inflated executive bonuses.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:24:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 131.44667, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Normalizing for accounting manipulation and applying peer multiples of 8.0-10.0x EBITDA or 20x normalized FCF yields a $68-99 price target — 35-55% downside from the $152.35 share price.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Avery has booked ~$1bn of restructuring charges in 20 years to manufacture Adjusted EBITDA growth", "2018 restructuring charges were quietly restated 62% lower without explanation, inflating Adjusted EPS", "Audit Chair Peter Barker has undisclosed ties to three SEC-investigated companies and Riverstone Energy" ], "scqaSituation": "Avery Dennison is an S&P 500 maker of pressure-sensitive labels, RFID retail tags, and industrial adhesives that markets itself as a recession-resistant compounder with growing Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and Free Cash Flow.", "thesisSummary": "Avery Dennison's pressure-sensitive label core is losing share to shrink sleeves, flexible packaging, and rigid-surface direct-print technology, yet management portrays the business as a stable S&P 500 compounder by leaning on ~$1bn of restructuring charges over 20 years to manufacture Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and Free Cash Flow growth. Spruce Point's forensic work finds Avery quietly restated 2018 restructuring charges 62% lower without explanation, stopped disclosing R&D and operating-lease costs in 2020, and ties 60% of CEO bonus to those manipulated metrics. Audit Committee chair Peter K. Barker has prior Board ties to three SEC-investigated companies (Stone Energy, Fluor, GSC) and undisclosed links to Riverstone Energy. With shares at all-time highs, peers trading 8.5-9.5x EBITDA versus Avery's 13.7x, and insider ownership collapsed from 3.8% to 1.1%, Spruce Point sees $68-99/share — 35-55% downside.", "primaryDemands": [ "Form an independent committee to evaluate Spruce Point's findings", "Hire an independent investigator to review accounting and restructuring practices", "Replace long-tenured auditor PwC (in place since at least 1960)", "Exercise clawback provisions on inflated executive bonuses tied to manipulated Adjusted EPS and FCF", "Remove entrenched Audit Committee chair Peter K. Barker" ], "scqaResolution": "Form an independent committee, hire an outside investigator, replace longtime auditor PwC, claw back inflated executive bonuses, and remove entrenched Audit Committee chair Peter K. Barker.", "thesisOneLiner": "Avery Dennison masks structural decline with restructuring add-backs and inflated Adjusted EBITDA/FCF; normalized for accounting manipulation, AVY is worth $68-99/share — 35-55% downside.", "precedentsCited": [ "Church & Dwight (CHD) short — management departures and weak guidance vindicated thesis", "AMETEK (AME) short — CEO/CFO retired, share price fell ~20%", "Mettler-Toledo (MTD) short — missed sales, share price corrected 22%", "A.O. Smith (AOS) short — China supply chain anomaly admitted, head of China fired", "Greif (2015 Spruce Point report) — SEC questioned tax accounting; Avery hired ex-Greif tax executive" ], "scqaComplication": "The label core is losing share to shrink sleeves and flexible packaging, while ~$1bn of restructuring charges, a 62% restatement of 2018 numbers, and dropped R&D disclosure mask underlying organic EBIT contraction.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 6, 11, 12, 79, 89 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "3M (MMM)", "Eastman Chemicals (EMN)", "UPM-Kymmene (UPM)", "Axalta (AXTA)", "Nitto Denko (6988 JP)", "HB Fuller (FUL)", "Element Solutions (ESI)", "Avient (AVNT)", "Minerals Technology (MTX)", "Innospec (IOSP)", "Intertape Polymer (ITP CN)", "Lintec Corp (7966 JP)", "Zebra Technologies (ZBRA)", "Brady Corp (BRC)", "Impinj (PI)", "Crown Holdings (CCK)" ], "valuationFrameworks": [ "multiple_comparison", "dcf" ], "visualCraftInterest": 4 }, "pitchdeck": { "metadata": null, 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quality of a security, a summary of past performance, or an actionable investment strategy for an investor. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, nor shall any security be offered or sold to any person, in any jurisdiction in which such offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. Spruce Point Capital Management LLC is registered with the SEC as an investment advisor. 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You should assume that as of the publication date of any presentation, report or letter, Spruce Point Capital Management LLC (possibly along with or through our members, partners, affiliates, employees, and/or consultants) along with our subscribers and clients has a short position in all stocks (and are long/short combinations of puts and calls on the stock) covered herein, including without limitation Avery Dennison Corporation (\"AVY\"), and therefore stand to realize significant gains in the event that the price of its stock declines. Following publication of any presentation, report or letter, we intend to continue transacting in the securities covered therein, and we may be long, short, or neutral at any time hereafter regardless of our initial recommendation. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and Spruce Point Capital Management does not undertake to update this report or any information contained herein. 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Any investment involves substantial risks, including complete loss of capital. Any forecasts or estimates are for illustrative purpose only and should not be taken as limitations of the maximum possible loss or gain. Any information contained in this report may include forward looking statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections. You should assume these types of statements, expectations, pro forma analyses, estimates, and projections may turn out to be incorrect for reasons beyond Spruce Point Capital Management’s control. This is not investment or accounting advice nor should it be construed as such. Use of Spruce Point Capital Management LLC’s research is at your own risk. You should do your own research and due diligence, with assistance from professional financial, legal and tax experts, before making any investment decision with respect to securities covered herein. All figures assumed to be in US Dollars, unless specified otherwise.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:08.676+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df894e32-63af-4ba6-a3ff-6e4e21592755", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "To the best of our ability and belief, as of the date hereof, all information contained herein is accurate and reliable and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading, and all information has been obtained from public sources we believe to be accurate and reliable, and who are not insiders or connected persons of the stock covered herein or who may otherwise owe any fiduciary duty or duty of confidentiality to the issuer, or to any other person or entity that was breached by the transmission of information to Spruce Point Capital Management LLC. 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This Sums Up Our View That Avery’s Best Days Are Behind It", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d8-df4b06ff5cd8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Pressure to move towards more sustainable solutions: Involves R&D costs to Avery, with no discernable tangible benefit to earnings. Avery stopped disclosing revenues from new product introductions, and in FY 2020 recently stopped disclosing R&D expenses\nContinued growth of shrink sleeves: Now almost 20% of market share for label technology, growing at the expense of pressure sensitive labels\nContinued shift toward flexible packaging from rigid packaging: Flexible packages (pouches) don’t require labeling and are resealable\nConsolidation Among Converters (Avery’s Customers): Private equity rolling up customers, increasing their bargaining power\nRigid packaging printing technology: As technology improves to print direct on hard surfaces, it could further displace labels on cans and glasses\nInsourcing of laminate and coating machines: Larger Avery customers are backward integrating with their own laminate machines\nApparel Sales Slowing: Shrinking retail footprint and work from home trend hurting Avery’s apparel business\nRefillable Food and Beverage Plastics Solutions: Supermarkets experimenting with refill solutions, a negative for bottles, cans and boxes\nTemporary and Long-Term Cost Cutting And Restructuring: Extreme cost cutting measures made during COVID-19 will look to leave Avery poorly positioned to earnings leverage when global economies recover\nUnwind of Beneficial Tax Schemes: Aggressive tax schemes now being audited by foreign jurisdictions, which could materially impact EPS", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:10.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37fddc77-9db4-4885-80bf-2d828ea1f91e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.5 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Avery invented the pressure sensitive label category more than 80yrs ago, and our research shows it is a very difficult product to innovate and expand margins. In the case of Avery, a global competitor in labels and adhesives, we find it reports growing Adjusted operating income margins when key competitors report margins are under pressure\nWe believe Avery’s financial reporting defies reality by painting a false sense of a stable / growing business vs. one under multiple pressures. Through the course of our forensic research processes, which included speaking with numerous former senior employees, customers and industry consultants, we identified a number of large headwinds facing Avery, and many classic red flag actions taken in response", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:10.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "aa7d245a-6d7c-485c-b1c2-4f94819b124f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "downside: 35% - 55%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d8-e71fc2fce8b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.28, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Avery Dennison (“AVY” or “the Company”) is an S&P 500 company known for its products and solutions in pressure sensitive labels, adhesives, reflective materials and tapes, and retail branding and information solutions such as RFID tags. Whereas Avery presents itself as a recession resistant and stable Company with growing Adjusted Operating Margins, EBITDA, EPS, and Free Cash Flow, Spruce Point believes its organic financial condition has been inflecting negative for years as its core product loses share to competing technologies and changes in consumer packaging preferences. We believe it has resorted to reducing key financial disclosures, and more brazen maneuvers to cover-up its weakening performance including understating debts. Notably, Avery has recorded ~$1 bn of restructuring and impairment charges in the past 20 yrs. Recent programs implemented during COVID-19 will expose it, not only to lower earnings leverage when global markets recover, but to financial restatement and SEC investigation risk. We find irrefutable evidence that Avery has inaccurately portrayed its restructuring accounts to inflate results and unjustly benefit insiders through inflated bonuses. Spruce Point has limited confidence in the current Audit Committee under Peter K. Barker’s leadership. We find an alarming pattern that Avery has concealed his connections to multiple companies and individuals that the SEC has investigated related to recognition of impairment charges. 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Thus, material organic EBIT decline is likely higher than our estimate...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:03.271+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "651153ad-3042-4c1c-9232-3436a4849cb2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Organic EBIT Decline: ($22.8)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d5-a8da8c642dd4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given Avery’s frequent restructuring and cost savings programs, we attempt to evaluate its ability to grow Operating Income (EBIT) absent these savings. Between 2015-2019, Avery disclosed average organic sales growth of 4%, and EBIT growth of $266.7m (inclusive of ~$600m of acquisitions for which it did not disclose EBIT contribution). During the same period, cumulative cost savings from disclosed programs totaled approximately $290m. 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null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 18, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a combination of historical CEO quotes and industry expert testimony to highlight a potential strategic omission by management.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 78, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1625, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses a combination of historical CEO quotes and industry expert testimony to 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"description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:04.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3af93f30-fde6-4f13-9f2e-e360240afb6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The last mention of the word “shrink sleeve” Avery made was on a conference call in 2010 and has never mentioned the word in any SEC filings. Based on our research, it has taken 15-20% of share in the decorative label market. This could be the reason why management has not wanted to draw attention to the shrink sleeve market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:04.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8a616cb3-c212-48d9-8498-5badc6f6c761", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“The clearest threat to Avery has been the growth of shrink sleeves. 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The second innovation is Fasson Curve appeal, which will enable consumer packaged goods companies to label containers with complex curves, where today the only option is shrink sleeve.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:04.272+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fc89082e-793f-49fd-b230-736f9f45276f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We showcased several innovative technologies at Labelexpo... The second innovation is Fasson Curve appeal, which will enable consumer packaged goods companies to label containers with complex curves, where today the only option is shrink sleeve.” — Former CEO and Chairman Dean Scarborough, Q3 2010 Conf Call. \"The clearest threat to Avery has been the growth of shrink sleeves. 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We can do it in pieces and parts, but there are not a lot of super large opportunities to expand margins in that space.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d6-e8ead4560762", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "framework", "text": "Spruce Point Question: \"Avery shows generally stable operating margins in Labels and Graphics over the past 5 years, but their adjusted results show substantial margin gains. Do you think this is accurate?\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Framework", "slug": "framework", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fa18-77c6-b10a-ccb8277ac0fa", "version": 1, "description": "Named conceptual framework instance." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Framework instance", "slug": "instance", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-05a2-72af-be0b-7edc60708a03", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "instance", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e195df90-0e99-446c-a7b3-dffb5d074780", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We asked a former Avery employee tasked with pricing and revenue initiatives in the Label and Graphic segment for his views on Avery's margin increase as well as an industry consultant with 50 years of experience. It was clear to both experts that increasing margins is challenging.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f872ba99-d272-4ad2-be6b-71dde216aef7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I think the margins have gone down.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "234db9ef-10ff-44a7-9259-5b72db109384", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.41, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "The answer depends on what Wall street wants: sales or earnings growth? We received guidance on a regular basis, and the bottom line is we always had to grow margins. I will say growing margin is very hard to do. I specifically have a lot of experience in that area given I was on the pricing side. I really considered myself more in margin management. In times of inflation, it was incumbent to manage the price increase process to pass along inflation to customers. To grow margin, we have to incorporate innovation, which is a really difficult hill to climb. We can do it in pieces and parts, but there are not a lot of super large opportunities to expand margins in that space. I saw restructuring every two years, and in some cases, more frequent than that. Avery does a very good job in cost management.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "53d74ee1-7700-4445-b83e-d809fc166697", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I will say growing margin is very hard to do. I specifically have a lot of experience in that area given I was on the pricing side. I really considered myself more in margin management. — Former Avery Global Pricing and Revenue Specialist", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d6-eed1b5dd3389", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.68, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Spruce Point's Research On Avery's Label And Graphic Margins", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "db4fb655-0e7e-4136-857e-ad1b74ce2b1d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "39af0b16-9773-47e7-b122-cadf740421a3", "evidence": "Uses expert testimony to directly challenge corporate financial reporting.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:05.478+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 19, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 16, "name": "Agitate", "beatId": "0c899a39-e9bd-4a86-98ef-bc50704d3fda", "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck highlights multiple signs of financial strain and improper accounting", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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"metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d6-aba235bbfe87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Flexible packaging doesn't require a self-adhesive label because everything is printed directly on the package. Packages are highly customizable, can be sealed to maintain product freshness, are reusable and believed to be ecofriendly. We believe the growth of this packaging is pressuring Avery. The last time Avery referenced flexible packaging was 2014.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.879+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a76a0510-81b5-4235-b5d9-8be80cb076ec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Respondents and industry experts estimate the global flexible packaging market will grow at a rate of 3.9% CAGR through 2023 to ~$291.6B. The flexible packaging market in the U.S. and Canada are estimated to achieve $44B by 2023. The U.S. flexible packaging market witnessed accelerated growth of 61% from 2000 through 2017 (shown right) and is projected to increase in almost all end use segments of the industry. The growth in flexible packaging is due to consumer preferences for convenient packaging, as well as industry demands for sustainable and consumer-friendly packages.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.879+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52660b54-2575-4e51-be93-f628b05d942c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We continue to see new applications choosing pressure-sensitive. On the label side, pressure-sensitive is obviously not the only choice. Some packages still use wet glue-applied paper labels, there are flexible packages like pouches, there are shrink labels, and there is direct print on containers. All of these solutions play a role in the market. But for many decades now, pressure-sensitive has been a winning technology through the superior design flexibility that it offers; flexibility that leads to superior shelf appeal and functionality.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.879+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5ded4cee-a722-4550-98b7-708a9dbf4cb3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We continue to see new applications choosing pressure-sensitive. On the label side, pressure-sensitive is obviously not the only choice. Some packages still use wet glue-applied paper labels, there are flexible packages like pouches, there are shrink labels, and there is direct print on containers. All of these solutions play a role in the market. But for many decades now, pressure-sensitive has been a winning technology through the superior design flexibility that it offers; flexibility that leads to superior shelf appeal and functionality.” — Avery Dennison Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d6-a747ed3abc85", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: 2019 Flexible Packaging Market Assessment, The Association of Packaging and Processing Technologies", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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RFID got overhyped when it was first introduced 20 years ago... It's looked at as maybe an old and dated technology... you're not just competing RFID or not. It's not a binary decision.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.179+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3cc1d11f-dec9-416d-a73c-d026bfaffcfd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.84, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So end market pricing for RFID tags will also vary quite dramatically... on average the market price is around between $0.06 to $0.08 is typically what we see at the moment. 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The additional cost of ink is like a half a penny where even the highest volume applications for RFID are down in the $0.02 to $0.03 cent range. 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Would you expect there, even though it's growing, would you expect their profitability and marketing to go down over time?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "48e83909-d7b8-4efb-8b45-a58bfd2fca24", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Margins will be the same because that is how they are managing the business. Net profit on legacy business may slowly shrink because as their costs come down, the total dollar or margin might shrink. 40% of a penny versus two pennies is just less money. You've got the customers that choke on the tag cost and don't want to add 5-10 cents. Those old-time time customers that were complaining about price were complaining when it was a dollar a tag. A lot of the same capabilities you were paying a dollar for 20 years ago.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4a4a660f-5cfa-4f01-b05e-d2b35d2494e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.695 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Do you think this work from home trend is a negative for Avery? As more workers are remote, and don't need to go into the office every day, there is less demand for work apparel, and hence less need for apparel tags and RFID?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b4394807-6515-48c3-a093-b6c4d7dbb291", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.825 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Yes, that's right.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e588eb42-3560-48f3-a196-b2ff93d9185e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Margins will be the same because that is how they are managing the business. Net profit on legacy business may slowly shrink because as their costs come down, the total dollar or margin might shrink. 40% of a penny versus two pennies is just less money.” — Former Avery Dennison RFID Sales Manager", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d6-ceb5bdad617f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.015 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Profitability Looking To Come Under Pressure", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "846df901-de16-4262-96dd-be85ff194328", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "71a6f337-5efc-44a8-93d9-f1472f53ab73", "evidence": "Contrasting management claims with expert testimony", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:06.055+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 25, "frameworkName": "expose_contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 16, "name": "Agitate", "beatId": "0c899a39-e9bd-4a86-98ef-bc50704d3fda", "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck highlights multiple signs of financial strain and improper accounting", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 26, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting how private equity-driven consolidation shifts bargaining power away from Avery.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 84, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 2426, "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "Uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting how private equity-driven consolidation shifts bargaining power away from Avery.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block", "data_table" ], "confidence": 0.95, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "seconds": 8.408, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b/26", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b#slide-26", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We spoke with a former Avery employee who has over 20 years of experience in the label industry. He told us that he believes the risk of increased consolidation among converters is being underappreciated and continued consolidation will result in tangible pressure being exerted on Avery.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d7-1313867157ef", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We spoke with a former Avery employee who has over 20 years of experience in the label industry. He told us that he believes the risk of increased consolidation among converters is being underappreciated and continued consolidation will result in tangible pressure being exerted on Avery. Avery just included this as a new risk factor. We find multiple deals and add-on acquisitions in the label converter industry, backed by finically driven private equity buyers, seeing opportunities to drive further consolidation among the few thousand converter players in the fragmented industry.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "67db3734-b212-4ec8-82ee-3ed77e62f880", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.44 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "A significant consolidation of our customer base could negatively impact our business. For example, some converter customers served by our LGM segment have consolidated and integrated vertically. Some of our largest customers have acquired companies with similar or complementary product lines. This consolidation could increase the concentration of our business with our largest customers. Further consolidation may be accompanied by pressure from customers for lower prices. While we have generally been successful at managing customer consolidations, increased pricing pressures from our customers could have a material adverse effect on our business.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d70a40d-9828-47c9-a5ea-3a3062f52a44", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.2, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Something that we saw over the course of time is the consolidation in the label converter base. So we saw a number of private equity firms buying up and consolidating label converter businesses, which puts more of the bargaining power in their hands.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0e48ff8e-c3bc-4e17-a117-79e1b7906fd3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Something that we saw over the course of time is the consolidation in the label converter base. So we saw a number of private equity firms buying up and consolidating label converter businesses, which puts more of the bargaining power in their hands.\" — Former Avery Employee with 20+ Years of Experience. \"A significant consolidation of our customer base could negatively impact our business... increased pricing pressures from our customers could have a material adverse effect on our business.\" — 2019 Annual Report.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:37+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d7-14300401c2d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Press Releases", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dbce6444-20d7-4e10-ba3c-123dd86750c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Selected Private Equity Deals In The Converter Space", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "37bf7e58-078f-4f87-97ed-ccc8acaf2df5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Consolidation Among Converters (Avery's Customer Base)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5035e9c3-adae-4ce5-b737-9be529336394", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "7fb59931-1920-4e14-be80-ada845b12c8d", "evidence": "Contrasts expert testimony with company risk disclosure", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:11.395+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 26, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 16, "name": "Agitate", "beatId": "0c899a39-e9bd-4a86-98ef-bc50704d3fda", "matchId": "ec7230b0-eb6b-4392-a5fa-006c3f1feed2", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck highlights multiple signs of financial strain and improper accounting", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 27, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses direct quotes from 2018 and 2019 annual reports to build a case for potential goodwill impairment.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 56, "componentCount": 5, "textChars": 2232, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "Uses direct quotes from 2018 and 2019 annual reports to build a case for potential goodwill impairment.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:07.331+00", "seconds": 3.97, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b/27", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b#slide-27", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.91, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "IHM manufactures and sells tapes and adhesives products for industrial and medical applications as well as fastener solutions. This segment has struggled, and there is indication that it may be worse than management is letting on. In 2017, Avery acquired Yongle Tape ($160m in sales), a supplier to the Chinese and global auto market included in the segment. In 2018, Avery quickly pointed out that Yongle Tape’s fair value exceeded its carrying value by just 22%. In the recent 10-K a “Critical Audit Matter” was raised around IHM goodwill impairment. Through 2020, Avery has continued to blame IHM on auto weakness and still hasn’t impaired goodwill.(1)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:07.331+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9cd0fa4f-0bfa-4669-96ad-e034df27f3de", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.91, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) Q3 Conf Call: “The Industrial and Healthcare Materials segment, sales declined 7.6% on an organic basis compared to the 21% decline in Q2, reflecting sequential improvement entrance for automotive applications, particularly in China and North America”", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:07.331+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2a5eef72-b082-486b-a608-a1d51eabb976", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.91, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Avery 2018 Annual Report: Additionally, in our annual impairment analysis, the goodwill of reporting units in our Industrial and Healthcare Materials reportable segment were tested utilizing a quantitative assessment. This assessment indicated that the fair values of these reporting units exceeded their respective carrying amounts, including goodwill. Except for our Yongle Tape reporting unit acquired in 2017, the fair values of these reporting units exceeded their carrying amounts by 100% or more. 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Thus, material organic EBIT decline is likely higher than our estimate", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:08.444+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4ddcdda2-dd6d-49ef-8706-c8a3587d4088", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Organic EBIT Decline: ($22.8)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7d7-58fc8eb51be8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Given Avery's frequent restructuring and cost savings programs, we attempt to evaluate its ability to grow Operating Income (EBIT) absent these savings. 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It curtailed share repurchases in Q1 – Q2 2020. Yet, if we are to believe its Adjusted Free Cash Flow forecast, it should have ample ability to fund both the dividend and incremental share repurchases. 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Mr. Barker is also closely connected to James Hackett, and served with him on the Board of Riverstone Energy Ltd from 2013 – 2016. Mr. Hackett and Mr. Barker are also on the Board of Fluor. 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"links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b/76", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b#slide-76", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.73, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Spruce Point observes substantial modifiers tied to the analytically flawed Free Cash Flow metric", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.774+00", "model": 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We find that AVY's annual executive bonuses are tied to the analytically flawed Free Cash Flow metric.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.774+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e2947608-66fb-4654-ae38-3ef052613b04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: 2020 Proxy statement and 2019 Proxy Statement", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b/77", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b#slide-77", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-ff42cd6c571b.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.27 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Will AVY's Board Clawback The CEO's Bonus In 2018 For Paying Him On An Artificially Inflated EPS Figure?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.339+00", "model": 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Given that we find evidence that 2018 Adjusted EPS has been overstated, will the Board clawback ill-gotten payments from the CEO?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.339+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9db803a1-0b22-4c84-907e-a6913981feaa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "In the event of fraud or other intentional misconduct on the part of an NEO that necessitates a restatement of our financial results, the NEO would be required to reimburse our company for any AIP or LTI awards paid or granted in excess of the amount that would have been paid or granted based on the restated financial results.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.339+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7da2797e-d12f-4309-81ba-6eb083dca3f0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "In the event of fraud or other intentional misconduct on the part of an NEO that necessitates a restatement of our financial results, the NEO would be required to reimburse our company for any AIP or LTI awards paid or granted in excess of the amount that would have been paid or granted based on the restated financial results. These remedies would be in addition to, not instead of, any other actions taken by our company (through the imposition of any discipline up to and including termination), law enforcement agencies, regulators or other authorities. This clawback policy has been contractually acknowledged by our NEOs upon the execution of their LTI award agreements since 2010. — AVY 2019 Proxy Statement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:46:44+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-e6ec-7186-b7dc-1002e39ba2ea", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: AVY 2019 Proxy Statement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1a81ac60-02ad-4fa8-8e6a-961a02d92a76", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point has repeatedly warned to be careful when the auditor relationship is too cozy with management. We observe the current CEO, Chairman and President of Avery started his career at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC). According to Avery, PwC is “independent” and has served as auditor since at least 1960, but it cannot determine the exact year it began. Given the accounting anomalies we observe and Avery’s CEO and Chairman’s connections to the firm, we believe it is time for Avery shareholders to demand a new auditor to review its books and records.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:16.116+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13f78670-3198-4c2a-8bfb-ef8ddbb378f6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.49 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PwC has been our independent registered public accounting firm since 1998 and served in that capacity during fiscal year 2019. Through its predecessor entities, the firm has served as our independent auditor since at least 1960, which was the first year our financial statements were subject to SEC reporting requirements. We have been unable to determine the exact year PwC began serving as the auditor for our company. PwC is very well-qualified to act as our independent registered public accounting firm and has a deep understanding of our operations and accounting practices. Some governance stakeholders have suggested that long tenure poses a risk to auditor independence. The Audit Committee believes, however, that PwC's years of experience auditing our company confers significant benefits, including the following:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:16.116+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "df78e2a7-84bf-462b-a127-7505451d9fd1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.55, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As chairman, president and chief executive officer, Mr. Butier is responsible for overseeing the company's global manufacturing operations, with the leaders of the company's businesses reporting to him. Mr. Butier joined Avery Dennison from PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2000 as director, finance of the former Office and Consumer Products North America division. Prior to becoming senior vice president and chief financial officer, he served from 2007 to 2010 as corporate vice president, global finance, and chief accounting officer. Prior to 2007, he held other senior leadership roles across the company, including finance positions in Label and Packaging Materials Europe and Retail and Branding Information Solutions, and general management positions in Retail Branding and Information Solutions. 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More investors have been holding or reducing shares. Recent buyers bucket Avery as a \"value\" investment, despite the fact we illustrate it trades at the richest multiple in its sector (with below average margins and sales growth) and at a premium to broker fair value.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:36:15.451+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2c0a638c-44fa-476a-8059-1d0fda2c6cd2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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