Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination) (AMCR)

Ben Axler · 2020-03
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

95
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The slide uses visual metaphor (rotten food, rats, cockroaches) to frame the target company as toxic.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
02
other
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
03
The slide uses a precedent table to establish credibility and track record.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
04
The slide uses a comparison table to establish credibility by citing past successful short campaigns.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
05
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
06
Standard Spruce Point Capital Management branding slide.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
07
This is a classic activist short thesis summary slide.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
08
The slide uses a 'thesis-headline' structure followed by three distinct 'problem-statement' bullets.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
09
The slide uses a two-bullet structure to summarize complex forensic accounting and governance critiques.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
10
The slide uses a 'What the Company Has Said' vs 'Spruce Point Cold Reality' framework to systematically dismantle deal narratives.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
11
The slide uses a classic 'Company Claim vs. Reality' structure to undermine management credibility.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
12
The slide uses a CEO quote to contrast the company's stated strategy with the activist's thesis that the strategy is exhausted.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
13
Uses a table to adjust reported revenues for divestitures to arrive at organic revenue figures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
14
Uses a red box to highlight the pro forma calculation and the resulting negative YoY change.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
15
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by labeling the company's reporting as 'aggressive'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
16
Uses a 'CEO quote vs. Reality' structure to highlight management deception.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
17
The table highlights a shift from a $37.6m surplus to a $72.0m deficit in the dividend cushion.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
18
The slide uses a bridge-style table to reconcile company-reported Net Debt/EBITDA (2.9x) to the analyst's adjusted figure (3.3x).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
19
Uses a red underline and red box to highlight the contradiction between the biography and the official revocation document.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
20
transition
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Iceberg
21
Uses a 'villain critique' style to highlight the risks of customer concentration in the packaging industry.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
22
Uses a series of pull-quotes from major corporate customers to demonstrate industry-wide shifts in packaging requirements.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
23
Uses a combination of quote-based contradiction and financial data to highlight lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
24
Red arrows are used to highlight specific entities in the 'Pre-U.S. Listing' table that contain the word 'Tobacco'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
25
The slide uses red boxes and arrows to visually demonstrate the renaming of 'Tobacco Packaging' to 'Specialty Cartons' between 2017 and 2018.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
26
Uses a combination of a bar chart for industry growth and a table for financial estimates to highlight the discrepancy.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
27
Uses a chronological table of quotes to show the shift in disclosure policy.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
28
Uses a table to adjust reported revenues for divestitures to reveal underlying organic performance.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
29
The slide uses a red box to highlight the pro forma calculation and the resulting organic revenue decline.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
30
Uses a red box to highlight a specific recent closure that contradicts the CEO's Feb 2020 claim.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
31
Includes income statement snippet, map of Italy highlighting Lugo, and tables for sales by location and workforce composition.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
32
Includes an income statement snippet, a map of the Modena area, and a headcount table.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
33
Uses a chronological sequence of quotes to highlight management's shifting explanations for poor performance in Latin America.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
34
Uses a direct quote from the company's own SEC filings to expose management failure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
35
Uses red circles and strike-through marks to visually emphasize the data mismatch between different reporting periods.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
36
The slide uses red lines to visually connect specific data points between two different financial tables to demonstrate the contradiction.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitation
37
The slide highlights Amcor's poor performance relative to the defensive industries it serves.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
38
transition
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
39
Includes annotations (red arrows) pointing to specific financial statement line items to highlight the contradiction.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
40
Includes a direct quote from an analyst-CEO exchange regarding working capital optimization.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · AgitationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
41
Uses a red box to highlight the specific row showing the deterioration trend.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
42
The slide uses a table to highlight the increase in DSO post-merger, contrasting it with pre-deal standalone figures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
43
Includes excerpts from 2018 Annual Report and 2019 Results Press Release to highlight the accounting shift.expose_contradiction
44
Uses a 'before-after' or 'contrast' style to highlight accounting non-compliance.expose_contradiction
45
Uses a 'CEO Quote vs. Reality' structure to highlight management credibility issues.expose_contradiction
46
The slide uses red boxes to highlight the conflicting data points in the income statement and the consolidated interest income table.expose_contradiction
47
The slide highlights a discrepancy in financial reporting practices regarding cash liquidity.expose_contradiction
48
The slide uses red boxes to draw attention to specific line items in financial tables, emphasizing the 'warning sign' thesis.expose_contradiction
49
The slide uses a 'foreshadowing' narrative technique to link early accounting warning signs (overdrafts) to later stock collapse.expose_contradiction
50
The slide uses a combination of a stock price line chart and a financial table to correlate operational distress with market performance.expose_contradiction
51
The slide highlights an increasing trend in Amcor's overdraft usage relative to sales.compare_peers
52
transition
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
53
The slide highlights Amcor's 1.34% sales synergy and 9.43% EBITDA synergy against a peer average of 0.93% and 6.02% respectively.compare_peers
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
54
The slide uses direct quotes from a former employee to validate the activist thesis regarding operational inefficiencies.illustrate_case
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
55
Uses a 'CEO quote vs reality' structure to highlight management credibility failure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
56
Uses direct quotes from official company documents to frame the argument of cost over-runs.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
57
Uses a table to reconcile reported costs against company claims.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
58
Uses a CEO quote as a setup for a contradiction analysis.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
59
Uses a 'before-after' style comparison of two different slide decks to highlight the introduction of a footnote that changes the meaning of the synergy claim.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
60
Uses a timeline of quotes to contrast with a quantitative table showing LTM R&D spend.expose_contradiction
61
Spruce Point Capital Management branding with tree logo.transition
62
The slide uses a table-like structure to present a chronological sequence of quotes to expose management contradictions.expose_contradiction
63
The slide uses a peer benchmarking table to expose a contradiction in the CEO's public statement.preempt_rebuttal
64
The slide uses arrows to visually represent the direction of capex spending (increase vs. maintenance).compare_peers
65
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'Organic' Amcor LTM Dec 2019 column, emphasizing the shortfall.expose_contradiction
66
The slide uses a flow diagram to illustrate the company's value creation model, then overlays a critical callout box to challenge the validity of the 'Reinvestmexpose_contradiction
67
Uses red boxes to highlight specific numerical discrepancies between tables.expose_contradiction
68
Spruce Point Capital Management branding.transition
69
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison of two financial tables to point out inconsistencies in how Amcor treats non-recurring items.expose_contradiction
70
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight specific line items in financial tables to demonstrate the contradiction.expose_contradiction
71
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by labeling the company's presentation as 'aggressive' and contrasting it with 'Spruce Point Adjusted' figures.expose_contradiction
72
The slide uses a red box to highlight the specific FCF figures being compared between the proxy and the actual performance.expose_contradiction
73
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight specific line items in financial tables that have been revised or are inconsistent.expose_contradiction
74
Uses direct quotes from executives to highlight a contradiction in seasonal expectations.expose_contradiction
75
The slide uses a 'Dividend Cushion' calculation to argue that the company's current dividend is unsustainable.preempt_rebuttal
76
The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Adjustments' framework to reconcile reported vs. adjusted financial metrics.expose_contradiction
77
transition
78
Uses a combination of biography screenshots, signature blocks, and official regulatory records to prove the contradiction.expose_contradiction
79
Uses red boxes and arrows to draw attention to the mismatch between the partner's stated expertise and the client's industry.expose_contradiction
80
The slide uses a 'guilt by association' framing to undermine the credibility of the target company's auditor.cite_precedent
81
Uses callout boxes to contrast media reporting on conflict of interest with the company's proxy statement regarding the departure.expose_contradiction
82
Uses a red box and arrow to highlight the negligible percentage of ownership.expose_contradiction
83
The slide uses a red box to highlight high percentage payouts and a red box to highlight the 'suspect' nature of the financial targets.expose_contradiction
84
The slide uses a callout box to link a specific corporate disclosure to the activist's interpretation of management's intent.expose_contradiction
85
The slide uses a direct quote from a company filing to contrast with the activist's claim of negligence.expose_contradiction
86
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by calling the benchmark 'absurd' and 'irrelevant'.expose_contradiction
87
Standard Spruce Point Capital Management section divider.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
88
Uses a table to contrast analyst locations and price targets against management's stated goals.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
89
The slide uses a red box to highlight the specific fundamental owners (American Century and Mairs & Power) who have been selling, directly contradicting the CEOexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
90
Uses a red arrow to visually link the 'Acquisitions and/or buy-backs' box in the model to the text highlighting the $500m buyback.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
91
Includes a specific callout box highlighting a period of sustained negative sales growth for Bemis.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
92
The table highlights that Amcor's valuation is rich relative to its peers when considering the underlying financial challenges.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
93
Includes a stock price timeline for WestRock and a detailed comparison table of financial and operational metrics.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
94
Uses a red callout box to link a specific data point in a table to a quote in a 10-K filing.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
95
Includes a comparison to Westrock as a precedent for multiple contraction.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution