{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d", "slug": "c665ec3b53b5", "title": "Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination) (AMCR)", "subtitle": "Ben Axler · 2020-03", "author": "Ben Axler", "date": "2020-03-10 00:00:00", "pageCount": 95, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination)", "targetTicker": "AMCR", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d", "slug": "c665ec3b53b5", "title": "Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination) (AMCR)", "rawTitle": "64e7a2826f65f9001f73b95d amcr research thesis 3 10 2020", "authorId": "54_Spruce_Point_Capital", "authorName": "Ben Axler", "authorDisplay": "Ben Axler", "kind": { "slug": "activist-deck", "label": "Activist deck" }, "sourceType": { "slug": "short_seller", "label": "Short seller" }, "fileName": "2020-03-64e7a2826f65f9001f73b95d_amcr_research_thesis_3-10-2020.pdf", "sourceUrl": null, "sourceDate": "2020-03-10 00:00:00", "presentationDate": "2020-03-10 00:00:00", "ingestedAt": "2026-04-22 21:19:32+00", "status": "ready", "pageCount": 95, "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Amcor plc (pro forma Amcor-Berry Global combination)", "targetTicker": "AMCR", "metadata": { "local_root": "/tmp/legacy-images/c665ec3b53b5", "activist_firm": "Spruce Point Capital Management", "origin_corpus": "contrarian", "extraction_seconds": 200.8023030757904 } }, "coverage": { "pageCount": 95, "pagesIndexed": 95, "pagesWithImages": 95, "pagesWithMetadata": 95, "imageCoveragePct": 100, "metadataCoveragePct": 100, "componentCount": 658, "chartCount": 10, "metricSlides": 0, "toolMatches": 10, "documentToolMatches": 5, "frameworkMatches": 79, "arcMatches": 1, "beatMatches": 3, "loopMatches": 3, "patternMatches": 0, "storymakersMatch": false, "scoreAvailable": false, "reviewAvailable": false, "activistThesisAvailable": true, "pitchdeckMetadataAvailable": false, "pitchdeckProfileAvailable": false }, "blocks": [], "matches": { "arcs": [ { "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "matchId": "b5b897bb-2f44-4169-aef9-f059b92d71fd", "evidence": "The deck systematically presents evidence of financial and operational issues, agitating the problems and implying a solution (sell the stock).", "isPrimary": true, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.378666+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "beats": [ { "to": 5, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 1, "name": "Problem Identification", "beatId": "c251c54b-69cb-466a-aa5c-4d5b12954093", "matchId": "b5b897bb-2f44-4169-aef9-f059b92d71fd", "beatType": { "name": "Problem (Identify pain)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-problem-identify-pain", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0e78-74bb-b8f6-54348367a131", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck begins by highlighting Amcor's financial reporting concerns and operational challenges.", "position": 0, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. Required for argumentative arcs." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 }, { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Strategy & Business", "categorySlug": "strategy-business" }, "from": 6, "name": "Agitation", "beatId": "abde5119-eb1f-41d5-93e1-e799fbfaa3b5", "matchId": "b5b897bb-2f44-4169-aef9-f059b92d71fd", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents extensive evidence of financial and operational issues, worsening the situation.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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Required in 19/20 arcs. The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 15, "loop": { "name": "10_iceberg", "slug": "10-iceberg", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Consulting, complex problem solving, organizational change", "canonId": "019dd956-69f4-738c-852a-643798da0899", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Symptom (Visible) -> The System (Hidden) -> The Root Cause", "description": "Reveal that the visible problem is merely a symptom of a deeper root cause", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Analysis", "categorySlug": "analysis" }, "matchId": "ec080536-b842-4658-a564-3b01c819f510", "evidence": "The deck presents tangible new evidence of Amcor's cash liquidity challenges.", "position": 0, "objective": "To reveal Amcor's cash liquidity challenges", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.526118+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 42, "from": 37, "loop": { "name": "27_cost_of_inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "canonId": "019dd956-70d1-7395-a15b-857ba858b394", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Urgency", "categorySlug": "urgency" }, "matchId": "f38a977e-77f4-4a4b-a70a-d53692d5ac4e", "evidence": "The deck warns of the risks of not addressing Amcor's financial challenges.", "position": 1, "objective": "To highlight the risks of not addressing Amcor's financial challenges", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.565841+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } }, { "to": 59, "from": 52, "loop": { "name": "47_quick_win_big_bet", "slug": "47-quick-win-big-bet", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Transformation planning, 100-day plans, resource allocation", "canonId": "019dd956-790d-708d-983e-ef9bbc68f741", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "The Full List -> Quick Wins (Low effort, High impact) -> Big Bets (High effort, High impact) -> Sequenced Roadmap", "description": "Separate initiatives into immediate wins and longer-term strategic bets", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Consulting Framework", "categorySlug": "consulting-framework" }, "matchId": "53c07a7b-0b0c-4f14-baa7-c199804d850d", "evidence": "The deck presents benchmarking analysis to argue that Amcor's synergies are suspect.", "position": 2, "objective": "To argue that investing in Amcor is not a great thesis", "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 22:00:13.603821+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. 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Your chart shows what their plan looks like vs. yours.\n- It **satisfies both the Architect** (math adds up) **and the Storyteller**\n (emotional delta between two futures).", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "CEO quote contradiction", "slug": "ceo-quote-contradiction", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When management credibility is the lever", "canonId": "019dd9e1-52e9-717f-8454-93e627563ed6", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8296-720d-8f51-da76937f9415", "description": "You reproduce management's own words — verbatim, with source and date — and\nthen place them next to the outcome that contradicts them. 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A CEO-quote-contradiction slide is quotable,\n which means it lands in WSJ/FT/Bloomberg coverage.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Peer gap chart", "slug": "peer-gap", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "canonId": "019dd9e1-54f1-775a-94a1-d5cf3bb75abf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-8653-7748-9050-807f067196c3", "description": "A single visual that benchmarks the target against its best-in-class peers on\na single quantitative KPI — and shows the target losing. The gap is the\npunchline.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "2eccdc09-d9d0-4536-812d-7733868bec46", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "When relative underperformance is the core argument", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It's the **most credible claim in the deck** because it's arithmetic, not\n opinion.\n- It's immediately **actionable** — close this gap and value accrues.\n- It **pre-empts the \"context is different\" defence** by pitting the target\n against direct peers in the same category.", "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Villain naming", "slug": "villain-naming", "status": "active", "bestFor": "When governance or specific decisions are the core thesis", "canonId": "019dd9e1-55a4-74db-9314-0ced4cd46cd2", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-88f1-72ad-8f4e-56ec29d7b369", "description": "You identify a **specific person** responsible for the target's underperformance\nor the behaviour you want changed — and name them. 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Value, Margins, Growth, P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, FCF, P/B, Net Debt/EBITDA, Rating, and Dividend Yield.", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.8, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:31.333614+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 92, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Before-After-Bridge", "slug": "before-after-bridge", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd956-8604-7188-883f-42370288ad05", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Narrative structure: Paint the before, show the after, explain the bridge", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Block", "categorySlug": "block" }, "agent": "Storyteller", "layer": "slide", "agents": [ "Storyteller" ], "matchId": "25598096-f978-41ff-91c7-2a52bc4d6788", "evidence": "WestRock stock price timeline with key events", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.6, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:31.438805+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 93, "whyItWorks": null, "antipattern": null, "cardinality": null, "narrativePurpose": null }, { "tool": { "name": "Comparison frame", "slug": "comparison-frame", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-484b-7399-a4fc-d14644b99f93", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Two or more states/subjects placed side by side to expose a gap.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "agents": null, "matchId": "489d7e09-95b6-4c75-a54d-912933e26bb2", "evidence": "Comparison table of WestRock/KapStone vs Amcor/Bemis", "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": null, "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 23:02:31.403971+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", 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"pageNumber": 95, "frameworkName": "valuation_table" } ], "patterns": [] }, "storymakers": null, "score": null, "review": null, "activistThesis": { "tone": "adversarial", "notes": "Iconic Spruce Point cover composition — 3D-rendered dystopian tabletop still life with rats, 'Mac & Moldy Cheese', 'Tear Jerker Beef', rotten meat, 'Kola' bottle and 'Unlucky Cigarettes' — visually telegraphs the thesis (tobacco, CPG customer stress, environmental pressure) and is a genuinely swipeable cover. Signed 'Quote From Ben Axler' on the S&P 500 track-record slide confirms authorship. Classic multi-pillar Spruce Point short structure: prior-track-record credentialing, 'What Company Said vs. Spruce Point Cold Reality' comparison tables, management quote contradictions, forensic financial tables, precedent deal (WestRock/KapStone) analogue, valuation bridge. Stake is not disclosed as a percentage — document only says short position in AMCR. Campaign phase is initial_thesis: first Spruce Point report on Amcor.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Bemis -3.0% and legacy Amcor -4.0% YoY through Sept 2019; pro forma -5.4% in Q4 2019", "metric": "Organic revenue growth" }, { "detail": "Spruce Point adjusted FCF fell 51% (from $253m to $124m) in 6M ended Dec 2019", "metric": "Free cash flow YoY change" }, { "detail": "Company reports 2.9x; Spruce Point estimates 3.3x after lease debt ($580m) and pension ($354m) adjustments", "metric": "Net Debt / EBITDA" }, { "detail": "Once contributed up to 30% of Amcor's total EBITDA per Spruce Point research", "metric": "Tobacco-carton EBITDA contribution" }, { "detail": "Amcor spends 3.5% vs. 5.5% industry average; legacy Amcor capex running 30-35% below pre-deal plan", "metric": "Capex/sales ratio" }, { "detail": "Directors and executive officers own only 3.6m shares, 0.2% of outstanding", "metric": "Insider ownership" }, { "detail": "Swung from €62.7m surplus (FY2018) to €34.4m deficit (FY2019)", "metric": "European cash pool" }, { "detail": "8 of 12 covering analysts reside in Australia despite only ~3% of revenue/assets there; avg PT implies 19% upside", "metric": "Analyst geographic mix" }, { "detail": "Spruce Point downside case shows ($72m) deficit vs. $725m dividend commitment", "metric": "Dividend cushion" }, { "detail": "Fitch downgraded from BBB+ to BBB in Feb 2020, close to junk for a BBB issuer reliant on commercial paper", "metric": "Credit rating" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell Amcor — we see 40-60% downside to US$3.60-US$5.40 per share as investors recalibrate the long thesis, the dividend is cut, and the BBB credit rating migrates toward junk.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 21:19:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 200.8023, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "40-60% downside to US$3.60-US$5.40 per share from $9.00, applying a 1.0x-1.2x 2020E sales multiple consistent with struggling peer WestRock; a dividend cut and further credit downgrade toward junk are expected.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "multiple_rerating", "governance_board" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Organic revenue is actually declining 3-4%, masked by Bemis deal accounting and cost-synergy narrative", "Chief Accounting Officer Jerry Krempa claimed CPA credentials that were revoked by Minnesota in 2017", "Free cash flow fell ~50%, European cash pool flipped to deficit, dividend and BBB rating at risk" ], "scqaSituation": "Amcor plc is a $20bn S&P 500 global packaging roll-up formed through a 2019 Amcor-Bemis stock-for-stock merger, serving CPG and beverage clients with flexible packaging, rigid packaging, specialty cartons and closures.", "thesisSummary": "Amcor plc, formed through a 2019 stock-for-stock merger with Bemis, is a $20bn global packaging roll-up that Spruce Point argues is a 'Core Short' with 40-60% downside to US$3.60-US$5.40 per share. Beneath the promoted cost-synergy narrative, Spruce Point's forensic review finds organic revenue already declining 3-4% through September 2019 and accelerating to -5.4% in Q4; free cash flow dropping over 50% year-over-year; a European subsidiary cash pool that flipped from €62m surplus to €34m deficit; and leverage closer to 3.3x than the claimed 2.9x after adjusting for leases and pensions. The deck exposes obscured tobacco-carton dependence (~10% of sales, once ~30% of EBITDA), two unresolved material weaknesses lingering 18 months, and Chief Accounting Officer Jerry Krempa, whose CPA license was revoked by Minnesota in 2017 despite his biography claiming otherwise. Investors should expect a dividend cut and a credit migration from BBB toward junk.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell Amcor shares — 'Strong Sell' opinion with 40-60% downside target", "Demand a full investigation into Amcor's financial affairs given material weaknesses and CAO credential misrepresentation", "Reprice the stock at a discount to peers to reflect unsustainable dividend, fragile liquidity, and governance failures" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell AMCR: investors should demand a forensic investigation into Amcor's financial affairs, reject management's deal narrative, and reprice the stock at a discount for unsustainable dividend, fragile liquidity, and governance failures.", "thesisOneLiner": "Amcor is a packaging roll-up masking 3-4% organic declines, obscured tobacco dependence, liquidity strain, and accounting red flags — including a CAO with a revoked CPA — with 40-60% downside to $3.60-$5.40.", "precedentsCited": [ "WestRock/KapStone acquisition (2018) — comparable packaging roll-up missing estimates and losing ~50%", "Newell Rubbermaid SEC goodwill-accounting investigation", "Kraft Heinz accounting investigation and goodwill write-down (large Bemis customer)", "MDC Partners cash-overdraft scandal", "XPO Logistics and Maxar Technologies (prior Spruce Point short wins on roll-ups)", "Greif, CECO, LKQ (prior Spruce Point packaging/industrial roll-up shorts)" ], "scqaComplication": "Organic revenue is actually declining 3-4% while management sells a cost-synergy growth story; free cash flow fell over 50%, leverage is understated, material weaknesses have lingered 18 months, and the Chief Accounting Officer's CPA is revoked.", "narrativeInterest": 5, "notableSlidePages": [ 1, 7, 10, 19, 93, 95 ], "peerCompaniesCited": [ "Ball Corp (BLL)", "WestRock (WRK)", "Crown Holdings (CCK)", "Berry Global (BERY)", "CCL Industries", "Sealed Air (SEE)", "AptarGroup (ATR)", "Sonoco Products (SON)", "Silgan (SLGN)", "Huhtamaki Oyj", "Winpak", "KapStone" ], 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Based on our analysis, which adjusts from the sale of U.S. (Amcor) and European “EC” (Bemis) assets, we estimate that Bemis and legacy Amcor were declining 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively, through Sept 2019. 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And we see some very specific opportunities", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:22.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "45b2a3d9-ed3d-4f3c-b8f7-ee5e27a2a437", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.19, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We also assume that both the Amcor and Bemis assets continue to deliver 2-3% organic growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:22.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6ad75d7d-27c3-4302-994a-e2daa5c5739c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.76, "x": 0.19, "y": 0.41 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "AMC grows broadly in line with our underlying GDP forecasts: low-single-digit constant-currency revenue across FY20-21e", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:22.531+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a64f84a0-7ef5-4135-9b4c-461a15bd87bc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We’re going to have higher margins with the delivery of these cost synergies, and we haven’t quantified the benefits of any revenue synergies but we would clearly expect to be able to grow at higher rates over the longer term than we would independently.... And we see some very specific opportunities — CEO on Revenue Synergies, Aug 7, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:32+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a97f-94db784762c9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bemis financials and Amcor financials, Spruce Point Analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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We believe Amcor’s large customers will pressure its suppliers to absorb the increased cost of developing new products, negatively affecting Amcor. Amcor has made commitments to develop all of its packaging to be recyclable or reusable by 2025. It’s a noble endeavor, but at what cost to shareholders?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.184+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d4922a6f-d01c-4c36-bca9-2f304341865b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"L'Oréal is proud to announce the development of the very first paper-based cosmetic tube... We plan to improve the environmental or social impact of 100% of our new products by 2020.\" — L'Oréal (Bioplastics News, October 18, 2019); \"PepsiCo, Inc. today announced a new target to reduce 35% of virgin plastic content across its beverage portfolio by 2025\" — PepsiCo (September 13, 2019); \"Halve its use of virgin plastic, by reducing its absolute use of plastic packaging by more than 100,000 tonnes and accelerating its use of recycled plastic\" — Unilever (July 10, 2019); \"Coca-Cola and PepsiCo, two major sellers of plastic bottles, have made sweeping sustainability commitments. Now they are stepping away from a plastics lobbying group.\" — CNN (August 5, 2019); \"Company Aims to Make 100% of its Packaging Recyclable, Reusable or Compostable by 2025; Increase Usage of Recycled Materials.\" — Kraft Heinz (July 31, 2018)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a981-b1b0ba2d9608", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.48, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.04 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Long-Term Industry Headwinds", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.184+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8e240db4-a19d-4984-82b3-12605a715eb5", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "d97ac3d4-9bca-443e-83b2-66127d649b85", "evidence": "Uses quotes from major industry players to validate the thesis of industry headwinds.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.85, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.184+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 22, "frameworkName": "authority-citation" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "Agitation", "beatId": "abde5119-eb1f-41d5-93e1-e799fbfaa3b5", "matchId": "b5b897bb-2f44-4169-aef9-f059b92d71fd", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents extensive evidence of financial and operational issues, worsening the situation.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. 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Amcor's MD&A Avoids Discussing Tobacco As A Driver Of Results And It Only Reports Sales By Product Annually, Not Quarterly.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:33+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a980-2231355e7c1d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.42, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.53 }, "kind": "image", "text": "Amcor Strategy slide snippet", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Image", "slug": "image", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f978-701f-a720-51d029d769e7", "version": 1, "description": "Photo, illustration, screenshot or icon." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Screenshot", "slug": "screenshot", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd87-7509-8391-3d79fb339379", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "screenshot", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.819+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c39554d4-0cf1-4b94-a7d0-900db3904195", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.91, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor appears to be taking steps to obscure its exposure to tobacco carton sales. Understandably, tobacco has been linked to cancer, and Amcor may not want to associate itself with this product.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.819+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c98acbab-f50c-4324-ad35-74db66487bb0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And then just kind of rounding out the portfolio, you got the question on closures. Can you talk a little bit about the cartons business, kind of the place within the portfolios or the attractive things about that.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:18.819+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "22627afe-d0d9-4492-83ce-28b0913c7580", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.14, "y": 0.45 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So the (specialty) cartons business is a little less than 10% of sales now. 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"text": "Obscuring Substantial Tobacco Dependence: Part III", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.578+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5e268180-b2ae-4a98-917b-02223f38cf6f", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "b6e1db2a-748e-4e71-9a33-23eb8526189b", "evidence": "The slide explicitly documents the renaming of a business segment to hide tobacco exposure.", "framework": null, 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Yet, it is already clear that the market doesn't believe these forecasts.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:20.414+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d00466ca-b220-45a1-8d76-e72a31d30260", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Amcor Scheme Booklet March 19, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 27, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a chronological table of quotes to show the shift in disclosure policy.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 77, "componentCount": 8, "textChars": 1182, "nDataPoints": 25, "notes": "Uses a chronological table of quotes to show the shift in disclosure policy.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "callout_box", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "seconds": 3.669, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d/27", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d#slide-27", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.78, "y": 0.75 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "It's Highly Unlikely Bemis' 2019 Target Was Achieved Based on Q1/Q3 Actual/Est Results. Q4 Implied would've Had To Bn Abnormally High", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f4324bcd-d2e3-4695-ba9e-086e3a95bd06", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue: $4.1bn", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a982-0b45df9b7a6e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.165 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor closed the acquisition of Bemis on June 11, 2019. Best disclosure practices for material acquisitions generally require providing financial contribution of the target for the next 12 months. Yet, we find that by Amcor has omitted disclosure of Bemis after one full quarter. It becomes clearer that with the last reported quarterly Bemis revenue of $970m (add $25.7m for divested assets) that proxy projections for $4.1bn of sales in 2019 likely fell short. Yet, management is still claiming organic growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ddedb44d-9c42-4a98-92eb-59acfa0efc47", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "The 2 legacy companies are functioning as one, and the excitement and the focus demonstrated by our employees has enabled the Flexibles business to simultaneously grow organically and to surpass the synergy targets we originally set for the first 6 months of the year. — CEO Delia Conf Call Feb 11, 2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a982-05c9c0b4ab19", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Amcor financial statements and proxy statement", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4453e1f1-cb21-41cf-9790-b8504fc1a587", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.78 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Bemis' Projections Offered March 2019 financial table", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "23565a31-e2ab-4141-a691-8a448632da0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.45, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Amcor 2019 Annual Report, Q1'20 10-Q, H2'20 10-Q, CEO Delia Conf Call quotes", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d72aeaba-5058-48c0-a543-33dc9961562a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.308, "y": 0.045 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Quickly Obscuring Bemis Contribution", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f15d551e-9fb1-4ef3-a040-1bccf2880be7", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "16c35125-40dc-4992-88e7-e63036016232", "evidence": "Contrasting historical disclosure quotes with later omission of data", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.788+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 27, "frameworkName": "ceo-quote-contradiction" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 40, "arc": { "name": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Sales pitches, urgency-driven, competitive displacement", "canonId": "019dd956-5ec6-70f9-9fd8-fdbaaff39acf", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "Problem (Identify pain) -> Agitate (Make it worse) -> Solution (Provide relief)", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "Agitation", "beatId": "abde5119-eb1f-41d5-93e1-e799fbfaa3b5", "matchId": "b5b897bb-2f44-4169-aef9-f059b92d71fd", "beatType": { "name": "Agitate (Make it worse)", "slug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0f5a-71dd-bae7-8fadb0d09456", "version": 1, "description": null }, "evidence": "The deck presents extensive evidence of financial and operational issues, worsening the situation.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": { "name": "Development", "slug": "development", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0332-7008-b3aa-11b0840a57b1", "version": 1, "description": "The middle stretch in arcs that have one. Often where length problems creep in." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 28, "type": "tension", "title": "Uses a table to adjust reported revenues for divestitures to reveal underlying organic performance.", "function": "expose_contradiction", "rawType": "expose_contradiction", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "expose_contradiction", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-124c-75aa-984a-0a3d0d8fc8df", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "expose_contradiction", "functionCanon": { "name": "Expose contradiction", "slug": "expose_contradiction", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-171f-776f-887c-73edaff4cf9c", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 67, "componentCount": 7, "textChars": 1183, "nDataPoints": 12, "notes": "Uses a table to adjust reported revenues for divestitures to reveal underlying organic performance.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "data_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.878+00", "seconds": 3.274, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d/28", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d#slide-28", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Based on our analysis, which adjusts from the sale of U.S. (Amcor) and European “EC” (Bemis) assets, we estimate that Bemis and legacy Amcor were declining 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively, through Sept 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a980-cfd81a060308", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Organic Revenue: -4.0%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a980-d506f7bb502f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor’s management dangled a carrot to investors of potential revenue synergies, without quantifying them. Based on our analysis, which adjusts from the sale of U.S. (Amcor) and European “EC” (Bemis) assets, we estimate that Bemis and legacy Amcor were declining 3.0% and 4.0%, respectively, through Sept 2019. The market believes Amcor is a stable grower, capable of doing low single digit growth.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:19.878+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "16fb723a-0fb6-45c9-8fb4-54d72a499447", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“We’re going to have higher margins with the delivery of these cost synergies, and we haven’t quantified the benefits of any revenue synergies but we would clearly expect to be able to grow at higher rates over the longer term than we would independently”.... “And we see some very specific opportunities” — Amcor CEO, Aug 7, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:34+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a980-d031b0233b5e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bemis financials and Amcor financials, Spruce Point Analysis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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US divestiture closed June 17, 2019 and EC divestiture closed Aug 8, 2019 so no adjustment was required for the quarter ended Dec 31, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:20.424+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c27d3ef7-c461-4b78-838a-25ccb9ca4028", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.735 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Note: Excludes currency as it is impossible to detail the currency effect for Amcor in Q4 2018, although currencies would likely make it worse. 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The Company has not resolved the issue over the course of 18 months. Investors should demand more accountability.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:21.586+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2d4435f8-d76c-4963-872a-495bfdf2c49c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.6, "w": 0.79, "x": 0.18, "y": 0.285 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As previously disclosed under \"Item 9A. - Controls and Procedures\" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for our fiscal year ended June 30, 2019 filed with the SEC on September 3, 2019, we identified two material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting during the conversion of our historical AAS financial statements to U.S. GAAP. The first material weakness was related to our lack of accounting staff and supervisory personnel with the appropriate level of experience in technical accounting in U.S. GAAP and disclosure and filing requirements of a U.S. domestic registrant. We also identified a second material weakness arising from deficiencies in the design and operating effectiveness of internal controls over the period end reporting process. Specifically, we did not design and maintain effective controls to verify that conflicting duties were appropriately segregated within key IT systems used in the preparation and reporting of financial information. Our management, with the participation of our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, evaluated the effectiveness of our disclosure controls and procedures as of December 31, 2019. The term \"disclosure controls and procedures,\" as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the \"Exchange Act\"), means controls and other procedures of a company that are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed by a company in the reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported, within the time periods specified in the SEC's rules and forms. Disclosure controls and procedures include, without limitation, controls and procedures designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed by a company in the reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is accumulated and communicated to our management, including its principal executive and financial officers, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure. There are inherent limitations to the effectiveness of any system of disclosure controls and procedures, including the possibility of human error and the circumvention or overriding of the controls and procedures. Accordingly, even effective disclosure controls and procedures can only provide reasonable assurance of achieving their control objectives. Our disclosure controls and procedures are designed to provide reasonable assurance of achieving their control objectives. As a result of the existing material weaknesses noted above, our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of December 31, 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:21.586+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a9b4a658-b290-43b9-a2f9-325af37d95cd", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "As previously disclosed under \"Item 9A. - Controls and Procedures\" in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for our fiscal year ended June 30, 2019 filed with the SEC on September 3, 2019, we identified two material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting during the conversion of our historical AAS financial statements to U.S. GAAP. The first material weakness was related to our lack of accounting staff and supervisory personnel with the appropriate level of experience in technical accounting in U.S. GAAP and disclosure and filing requirements of a U.S. domestic registrant. We also identified a second material weakness arising from deficiencies in the design and operating effectiveness of internal controls over the period end reporting process. Specifically, we did not design and maintain effective controls to verify that conflicting duties were appropriately segregated within key IT systems used in the preparation and reporting of financial information. ... As a result of the existing material weaknesses noted above, our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were not effective as of December 31, 2019. — Amcor SEC Filing", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a981-ca4b5d2ffdfe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: First disclosed 10/29/18 Form S4 and still unresolved as of recent 10-Q 2/11/20", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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In addition, the Company reclassified certain prior year comparative figures from interest expense to net sales to conform to the current year's presentation. This change in presentation did not have an impact on the Company's financial condition or operating results.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:21.194+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "32cabf09-dbf5-4b92-95c2-e3ac0b3f14a7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "revenue: $2.2m", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a981-440fbdaf09d8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor's financial control issues appear to affect its revenue and cost recognition policies. We find that revenues for the six months ended Dec 2018 were revised lower by $2.2m and also don't match previous Australian filings from H2 2019 by $6.2m.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:21.194+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2ba3317f-3ce5-4080-b305-b1d4a839c932", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"The Company reclassified prior year comparative figures in the condensed consolidated statement of cash flows to conform to the current year's presentation. In addition, the Company reclassified certain prior year comparative figures from interest expense to net sales to conform to the current year's presentation. This change in presentation did not have an impact on the Company's financial condition or operating results.\" — Amcor Note 1", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:35+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a981-416f0740dc23", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.94 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Amcor 10Q / Amcor H1 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Our credit ratings are important to our ability to issue commercial paper at favorable rates of interest. 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Over the preceding, six quarters prior to deal closing, we calculate Bemis' working capital to sales ratio averaged 13%. Amcor's working capital was around zero.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a982-7035497ede08", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Working Capital % of LTM Sales: 14.1%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:36+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a982-7a1a0b016129", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that Bemis had much worse working capital than Amcor, and not simply 2x Amcor's as suggested by an analyst. Over the preceding, six quarters prior to deal closing, we calculate Bemis' working capital to sales ratio averaged 13%. Amcor's working capital was around zero.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:22.904+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ef6af0c8-5c11-4309-be97-1877957249e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.13, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Gandler: \"Okay, great. And last question. Bemis' working capital to sales is twice Amcor's, roughly twice Amcor's. 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"kind": "paragraph", "text": "We also have carefully evaluated Amcor's Days Sales Outstanding (DSOs) pre and post-deal closing. 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Is called procure plus solely focused around cost savings... I thought this became, very challenging because you cannot continue to save, you know, 10% or whatever percent... especially when you merge with a company and your supplier base, is very fragmented... 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In my personal opinion, I thought this became, very challenging because you cannot continue to save, you know, 10% or whatever percent was it just say on average 10 to 15% year over year when you already picked up all the low hanging fruit.....especially when you merge with a company and your supplier base, is very fragmented... But we forced suppliers, with a very serious extended payment terms, 90 days and some small suppliers just have a very, very difficult time with that. — Former Employee. What I also know on the new product development... the process internal process was so broken that it takes forever. And, a lot of customers don't want to wait for that... So I think that's a drawback for Amcor to get actually the new type of revolutionary bottle that the customer wants, and they want them quick. 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In particular, the Company forecasted $125m of transaction costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ca8c31cb-f907-41b5-87db-9aaa8d26a58a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.895 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "Note: GST = Goods and Services Tax which Amcor later says, “It is anticipated that New Amcor will maintain ISE status and the New Amcor board intends to conduct the business of the combined company such that no GST will be incurred by New Amcor.”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Disclaimer", "slug": "disclaimer", "status": "active", "canonId": "91173477-d91f-4024-bbaf-d4f93e3f82dc", "version": 1, "description": "Legal/cautionary text that occupies most of the body of its slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3114ff7f-740d-4e7a-9026-4fb51064f86a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.165, "y": 0.305 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Integration, compensation and transaction costs are substantial... estimated integration costs of US$150 million, approximately US$65 million of compensation costs and approximately US$125 million of transaction costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0f1c70fe-70b7-4802-aaaf-32bdd8941ca1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.165, "y": 0.498 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Amcor anticipates the following costs... integration costs of approximately US$150 million... compensation and transaction costs comprising approximately US$65 million of compensation costs and approximately US$125 million of transaction costs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Bullet list", "slug": "bullet", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc98-7169-a083-5cab805076ca", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bullet", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2a40eb3-0109-4eeb-8341-cc11647bf559", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.98, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.835 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "16. Compensation costs comprise Bemis employee entitlement and retention costs and transaction costs reflect acquisition costs, such as advisory, legal and accounting expenses. 17. Estimated costs to be incurred up to the Scheme Meeting on 2 May 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b083812-862c-4575-b092-7011e0dbb3c1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Integration, compensation and transaction costs are substantial. The costs to implement the Transaction are substantial and include estimated integration costs of US$150 million, approximately US$65 million of compensation costs and approximately US$125 million of transaction costs(excluding GST). Both integration and transaction cash costs are expected to be broadly offset by savings in capital expenditure and working capital over a similar time period (refer to Sections 10.3.2 and 10.3.3 of this report). 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We've gone at a very detailed level through the duplication in corporate costs... And we've been able to pencil out exactly what that opportunity represents.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:28.725+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "3de15319-6d7d-449b-8e15-79a19ecec83e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "And then the third source of cost synergies is in G&A. 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The SEC even questioned the Company about its free cash flow representation that included synergies, but excluded costs to achieve them.(1) Recent presentations now include a footnote.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:28.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7dd83644-749a-42bb-8676-e4985ea18469", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.83, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now the team at Bemis and Amcor have worked together to identify and evaluate the cost synergies... we're confident in being able to generate $180 million in cost synergies.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:28.999+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "01045741-11c9-4b57-a31c-85b93b839662", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Now the team at Bemis and Amcor have worked together to identify and evaluate the cost synergies related to this combination and on slide 14 we've laid out some of the details related to those synergies. Based on this work together we're confident in being able to generate $180 million in cost synergies.\" — CEO Ron Delia, Aug 6, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:38+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a983-b1a737fcb5eb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Amcor/Bemis Deal Presentation (Aug 2018) 1. 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"parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.5, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "list", "text": "Timeline of management quotes from 2018-2020", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "List", "slug": "list", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f94b-779b-a53b-fd4904a5f4d2", "version": 1, "description": "Bullet or numbered list." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Timeline item", "slug": "timeline-item", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fd0e-74ce-9443-440fbd8c23b4", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "timeline-item", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:24.991+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e9367992-f80b-49cc-afde-5ae7bd0d24c4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "R&D Expense: $73.0", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a983-ee404f8aecdc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.11, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At deal announcement, Amcor was adamant that cost synergies would not entail R&D reductions, and it touted its $115m combined R&D spend as part of its “enhanced financial 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Yet, now the CEO is saying that its R&D infrastructure is “a little bit uneven”. Based on our analysis, we observe that R&D spend is down materially from $115m to $83m (-28%). 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Yet, when we sanity check his statement by benchmarking recent capex spending by industry peers, we find his statement hard to justify on any grounds. We analyzed industry capex spending over the past four years and find average spending to be in the range of 5.5%. 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The increase in capital expenditures is primarily driven by increased investment to drive growth and improve cost productivity. Free Cash Flow in 2020 is expected to be approximately $350 million, with capital expenditures of approximately $200 million.\" — Sealed Air", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a984-752f96e11242", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.65, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 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We double this combined result to estimate full year sales. Capex guidance per Bemis CEO on Jan 31, 2019 detailed earlier and up to $185m per year as noted in the projections of the proxy statement (p. 105)\n2) Supplemental disclosure (p.5) shows $284.1m of sales from divested EC and US assets, which we remove 53% to account for mid year deal closing. We assume divested assets contributed capital expenditures consistent with 4% of sales. 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By adjusting its LTM 2019 results for the contribution of Bemis and divestment of U.S. and European assets, we estimate legacy Amcor capex is running at $258 - $277m, or approximately 30%-35% below plan. 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Q3 is again our seasonally highest quarter, traditionally our highest quarter, and it is higher this year as it has been in all the past years.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:27.618+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "193f5ddd-4a7b-4756-a4e6-586636d01f58", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.67 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Typically, our cash flow is much stronger in the second half, and we'll -- we typically have higher earnings in the second half, so there's some seasonality there. We expect there'll be some working capital improvements, as we've seen in the first half, that will continue to flow in the second. So look, generally speaking, that's the normal trend we see. 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when the relationship between the Company and auditor are very close.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a985-ae9e929abb2b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.94, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point has always warned to be 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In Amcor’s case, we observe that Paul Brasher, its Audit Chair, was Chairman of the Global Board at PwC. The close relationship became the focus of an AFR article in March 2019, and Brasher left the Board in Sept 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.266+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7d613deb-d3a6-4cc7-b832-fc770f0c9dcb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“Paul Brasher, a Director and Chairman of the Audit Committee, will retire from the Board on September 30, 2019”", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.266+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "00ded167-636c-4eb3-8884-b3dfc2193616", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.82, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.32 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Fears that PwC Australia’s burgeoning conflict-of-interest controversy over retirement payments made to former partners will spread to overseas member firms is piling pressure on local leadership to resolve the widening issue. The firm on Friday denied that the global board had become involved, even as AFR Weekend identified another ex-partner who is receiving payments from the firm and working as an audit committee head at a listed company where the auditor is also PwC. The PwC engagement with Amcor, along with the previously identified Vocus where a similar arrangement is in place, are estimated to be worth about $13 million in audit and non-audit fees to PwC. Amcor, where former PwC senior partner Paul Brasher is head of the audit committee, declined to comment. Amcor are unable to provide comment on your questions,” a spokesman said. In 2018, Mr Brasher received US$221,807 ($312,140) as a director of Amcor. In the same financial year, PwC’s received US$8.1 million ($11.5 million) in fees from Amcor for audit and non-audit work.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.266+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b23bb650-510b-431d-b62d-065e64f5c851", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Fears that PwC Australia's burgeoning conflict-of-interest controversy over retirement payments made to former partners will spread to overseas member firms is piling pressure on local leadership to resolve the widening issue. — Australian Financial Review \"PwC Fears Payments Issue Will Go Global\", March 22, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:40+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a985-b3a215ecf281", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.15, "y": 0.68 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Australian Financial Review “PwC Fears Payments Issue Will Go Global”, March 22, 2019", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The transaction closed late in fiscal year 2019, resulting in this award being granted after the end of fiscal year 2019. Given the timing of the grant, the award will have a two year vesting period rather than the standard three year vesting period. 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Yet, the Company is global with minimal assets or revenues in Australia. Management touted the benefits of its dual listing. Yet, we don't see U.S. analysts picking up coverage. 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And through these listings, we expect there will be greater liquidity for investors as the market capitalisation of the combined company, which we estimate at US$17 billion, is expected to qualify for inclusion in the US S&P500 index, while the Australian listed shares will also continue to be included in the ASX 200 index.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.321+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "97a22b5a-2e5c-45ba-b3c1-ec6c86a4ef07", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Third, the transaction structure will result in the stock being listed on two major global exchanges, the NYSE and the ASX. And through these listings, we expect there will be greater liquidity for investors as the market capitalisation of the combined company, which we estimate at US$17 billion, is expected to qualify for inclusion in the US S&P500 index, while the Australian listed shares will also continue to be included in the ASX 200 index. — CEO Dalia Deal Call Aug 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a986-4b3e9b5863fb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "1) Upside based on US$9.00 / A$13.63 share price. 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Flow back occurs when investors sell an acquiror's shares in a cross border deal, usually from technical considerations. Our analysis calls into question his statement, and shows that actual fundamental owners of Bemis have been selling, while index/ETF owners have only moderately added.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a986-d2043a091076", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor's CEO touted “flow forward” instead of “flow back” from a cross border deal. Flow back occurs when investors sell an acquiror’s shares in a cross border deal, usually from technical considerations. Our analysis calls into question his statement, and shows that actual fundamental owners of Bemis have been selling, while index/ETF owners have only moderately added.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:35.18+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7979ab4b-bc87-4deb-aa90-f1a1669bd720", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.8, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "“And we believe that the listing in New York in particular in the multi-capitalisation which will approach $20 billion once the synergies are factored in, will put us sort of mid-way in the S&P500 index and create index buying that actually will create flow forward, right. 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We would expect flow forward.\" — CEO Dalia, Deal Call Aug 7, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:42+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a986-d483f741e0c0", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bemis Proxy holdings as of 3/1/19 and Amcor 2018 Annual Report. 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.955+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9d164cc4-2849-4fac-b3da-3f71024df113", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "EV/Forward EBITDA: 11.2474", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a987-2a16d2223762", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.95, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.165 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor trades in excess of its long-term forward EV/EBITDA and in-line with its forward EV/Sales multiple. In the context of evidence that both Amcor and Bemis are experiencing declining revenues, we believe Amcor should trade at a multiple below its long-term average.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:29.955+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b076408f-e2f3-46b3-b898-9fb059303d12", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.025, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The exception (Sparkline) ends with new bliss which is functionally a resolution." }, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 92, "type": "setup", "title": "The table highlights that Amcor's valuation is rich relative to its peers when considering the underlying financial challenges.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "peer_benchmark", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "peer_benchmark", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Peer benchmark", "slug": "peer_benchmark", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08f0-7158-a78d-d7b5331fefaf", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1149, "nDataPoints": 160, "notes": "The table highlights that Amcor's valuation is rich relative to its peers when considering the underlying financial challenges.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:32.821+00", "seconds": 6.205, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d/92", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d#slide-92", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-eaae8b08698d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Amcor screens as if its valuation is reasonable for a global paper and packaging company. In addition, its sales and earnings are temporarily showing growth from the addition of Bemis, but as we've illustrated, there is underlying revenue deterioration.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a987-bb22b9f156e5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "valuation multiples: 5.1%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:37:43+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2b65-734e-a987-be0f69d1c3b7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Amcor screens as if its valuation is reasonable for a global paper and packaging company. In addition, its sales and earnings are temporarily showing growth from the addition of Bemis, but as we've illustrated, there is underlying revenue deterioration. Investors might think they are being compensated with a generous dividend yield as well. However, its valuation is predicated on overly aggressive revenue and earnings growth expectations. We've presented strong evidence why we believe sales will decline, margins disappoint, and the dividend potentially cut or eliminated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:37:32.821+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f2abae56-4e56-4c04-a304-75b8a607a662", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "* Most representative comps for Amcor\nSource: Company filings, Wall St estimates.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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