Ben Axler · activist-deck
Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)
83 pages · 5 arc beats · 3 loops
Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)
Ben Axler · 2019-03 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
5 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 27 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Hook 1 slides 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides · 5 hits — 0/1 slides
— 0/1 slides
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100% 1/1 slides — 0/1 slides
Complication 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 36 hits — 0/5 slides
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100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides The Monster 6 slides 100% 6/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides · 41 hits — 0/6 slides
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66.7% 4/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides — 0/6 slides
The Struggle 11 slides 100% 11/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides · 84 hits — 0/11 slides
27.3% 3/11 slides 63.6% 7/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides 54.5% 6/11 slides The Victory 4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides · 26 hits — 0/4 slides
25% 1/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides — 0/4 slides
Slide inventory
83 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The slide uses a visual metaphor of a Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) to imply the company is in an 'extreme sugar high' (overvalued) state.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Hook
03
The slide uses a comparison table to establish credibility by citing past successful activist campaigns.cite_precedent
04
Includes Spruce Point Capital Management logo and standard confidentiality disclaimer.front_matter
05
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, utilizing a strong headline thesis followed by a summary paragraph and a bulleted list of supporting arguments.frame_problem
06
Uses a contrast-pairs framework to juxtapose market optimism against activist skepticism.expose_contradiction
07
The table uses a 'Before' and 'After' structure to show the impact of G6 release and G5 transmitter repricing on cost competitiveness.compare_peers
08
Uses a combination of bar charts for market penetration and pie charts for incremental share to calculate a final 'runway' figure.size_opportunity
09
Uses a dual-axis style chart to show historical vs estimated patient adoption trends, highlighting a management reporting change in 2019.expose_contradiction
10
The slide uses a red dashed box to highlight the divergence between sensor and transmitter revenue growth starting in Q2 2018.expose_contradiction
11
Uses a combination of market share data and stock valuation charts to argue for a valuation contraction.expose_contradiction
12
The slide uses historical precedent to argue that the market underestimates the impact of Abbott's product launches on Dexcom's valuation.preempt_rebuttal
13
Includes a bridge from Market Cap to Enterprise Value and a table of valuation multiples and growth/margin metrics.analyze_data
15
The slide uses a comparison frame to establish the technological advantage of CGMs over traditional methods.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
16
Includes diagrams of CGM sensor placement and a closed-loop system setup.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
17
The slide uses a visual grouping strategy to distinguish between niche/integrated products and the 'most common' stand-alone products.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
18
The slide uses a contrast-based argument to explain market segmentation between two competing CGM products.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
19
The table highlights the integrated nature of the Libre sensor/transmitter as a cost-saving factor.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
20
The slide uses a table to demonstrate price disparity as a catalyst for insurance preference.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
21
The slide contrasts the 'bull' narrative (Dexcom is superior for high-need patients) with the author's counter-argument (Libre 2 will level the playing field).compare_peers
22
Includes a press release excerpt as evidence for the technological parity of the Libre 2.preempt_rebuttal
24
Uses a 2x2-style layout to contrast legacy vs new technology across two competitors.expose_gap
25
Uses a combination of clinical study citation and expert testimony to undermine the bull case for Dexcom's technical superiority.preempt_rebuttal
26
Uses a patent excerpt and a user testimonial to validate the technical improvement.preempt_rebuttal
27
The slide uses green boxes to highlight competitive advantages of the Abbott Libre products.compare_peers
28
Includes a pull-quote from a current employee and a summary of an interview with Bigfoot Biomedical CEO Jeffrey Brewer.illustrate_case
29
The slide uses three distinct callout boxes to present expert testimonials.cite_precedent
30
Includes a quote from an Insulet earnings call as evidence of industry anticipation of interoperability.diagnose_problem
31
The slide uses a 'before-after' or 'comparison' structure to show a trend of industry consolidation/integration.cite_precedent
32
Uses red boxes to highlight specific phrases in legal filings that are contradicted by the court's ruling.expose_contradiction
33
This is a title/thesis slide from an activist short report by Spruce Point Capital Management.frame_problem
34
The slide uses a red box and arrow to emphasize the disparity in manufacturer COGS and net revenue.compare_peers
35
The slide uses a red arrow to visually link the 'Average Sensor & Transmitter Revenue per Patient per Day' from the consensus table to the 'At Par With Libre' sexpose_contradiction
36
The table highlights a scenario where Abbott maintains profitability at lower price points while Dexcom's margins turn negative.compare_peers
37
The slide uses a bar chart to illustrate a 'price war' scenario where Dexcom's margins turn negative at lower revenue points compared to Abbott.compare_peers
38
Uses a call-and-response format between an analyst and the CEO to frame the activist's thesis.expose_contradiction
39
The slide uses management's own words to frame their capacity expansion as a competitive threat to peers (specifically Dexcom).expose_contradiction
40
The slide uses survey data to undermine the narrative of Dexcom's technological moat.expose_contradiction
41
The slide uses survey data to undermine the 'premium quality' narrative of the target company.expose_contradiction
42
The slide uses a comparison table to argue for a product switch based on cost-benefit analysis.compare_peers
43
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight specific cost comparisons and migration drivers.compare_peers
44
Uses red boxes and arrows to draw attention to 2018e data points.analyze_data
45
Uses earnings call quotes to highlight a discrepancy between Abbott's reported progress and Dexcom's downplaying of the situation.expose_contradiction
46
The slide uses red arrows to visually depict the loss of market leadership over time.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
47
The slide uses a three-column layout to summarize the core thesis points, supported by visual evidence (product screenshots and charts).summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
49
This is a classic 'concede and pivot' slide used by activist short sellers to frame the bull case before dismantling it.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
50
Includes three distinct data tables: Diabetes Statistics, Market Shares, and Market Penetration.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
51
The slide uses a 'before-after' style comparison of market sizing assumptions to argue that the TAM is overstated.size_opportunity
52
The slide uses two charts to contrast market participant claims with independent data sources.preempt_rebuttal
53
Includes red callout boxes highlighting specific market share data points.size_opportunity
54
The slide uses stacked bar charts to contrast incremental and total market share between two competitors.compare_peers
55
Includes a quote from Abbott's 4Q FY18 earnings call to support the thesis.compare_peers
56
Uses a combination of bar charts for market sizing and pie charts for incremental share to derive a final 'remaining patient' figure.size_opportunity
57
The slide uses a 'bear case' projection to illustrate a 'cliff' in growth, framing the company's future as unsustainable.diagnose_problem
58
The slide uses a map-based visualization to contrast regional diabetes statistics against the thesis that international expansion is not a viable growth strategsize_opportunity
59
The slide uses two charts to contrast the number of patients in developing countries with the actual healthcare spending power in high-income countries.size_opportunity
60
Uses a red 'X' overlay on a chart to visually dismiss management's TAM projections.size_opportunity
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
61
Uses a visual timeline/flow of news articles to demonstrate management's failure to execute.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
62
Uses a 'CEO quote contradiction' framework to contrast past management statements with current market realities.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
63
The slide uses a red box callout to highlight the cessation of patient base growth reporting in 2019.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
64
The slide features the Spruce Point Capital Management logo (a pine tree).transition
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
65
The slide uses a red dashed box to highlight the divergence in the second chart.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
66
The slide uses a table to highlight a 56% price increase discrepancy, framing it as a 'hack' by users that masks underlying price sensitivity.expose_contradiction
67
The slide uses survey data to challenge the bull case for Dexcom by highlighting pre-buying behavior.expose_contradiction
68
Uses red callout boxes to highlight the contradiction between management's claims and the reality of the financial data.expose_contradiction
69
The slide uses a causal-chain framework to link management actions (price hikes, product rollouts) to customer behavior (stockpiling) and financial outcomes (reexpose_contradiction
70
Uses a series of quotes to contrast past transparency with current obfuscation.expose_contradiction
71
The slide uses a quote from a JP Morgan research note to illustrate the 'guesswork' being performed by the sell-side.expose_contradiction
73
The slide highlights a contradiction between management's guidance and the competitive reality of the CGM market.expose_contradiction
74
The slide highlights the discrepancy between company guidance and the analyst's bearish scenario.analyze_data
75
The slide highlights a significant deceleration in patient growth and revenue in the Spruce Point estimate compared to company guidance.quantify_opportunity
76
The slide uses a red box to highlight the Spruce Point Estimate section, contrasting it with the company's LT Guidance.analyze_data
77
The slide uses a sensitivity table to argue that downside risk is significantly higher than upside potential.analyze_data
78
The slide uses a table to expose the contradiction between analyst ratings and the actual price targets.preempt_rebuttal
79
Uses a combination of a stock price chart with insider transaction markers and a bar chart showing the decline in percentage ownership.expose_contradiction
80
The table highlights a pattern of negative market reaction to competitor product milestones.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
81
The slide uses a peer group of 8 companies to highlight valuation discrepancy.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
82
Uses a dual-axis line chart to show stock price vs valuation multiple over time, highlighting a divergence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
83
The slide uses a standard valuation bridge format to derive equity value from enterprise value, adjusting for debt, cash, and equity investments.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory