{ "schemaVersion": "deck-intelligence.v1", "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "slug": "34401c2968d1", "title": "Dexcom, Inc. (DXCM)", "subtitle": "Ben Axler · 2019-03", "author": "Ben Axler", "date": "2019-03-21 00:00:00", "pageCount": 83, "kind": "activist-deck", "orientation": "landscape", "aspectRatio": 1.3333334, "targetCompany": "Dexcom, Inc.", "targetTicker": "DXCM", "document": { "id": "019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "slug": "34401c2968d1", "title": "Dexcom, Inc. 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"loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": "Logical Reasoning", "categorySlug": "logical-reasoning" }, "matchId": "ec60a922-a471-43e6-9110-ad29b38faf08", "evidence": "The deck presents several contradictions in Dexcom's growth story, highlighting the market's misinterpretation.", "position": 0, "objective": "Identify patterns in Dexcom's growth story that contradict the market's interpretation.", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:47.419727+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, 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21:59:47.482919+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "tools": [ { "tool": { "name": "Before/after framing", "slug": "before-after-framing", "status": "active", "bestFor": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "canonId": "019dd9e1-528b-72ec-a563-e5dcb9410f67", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019dd9a1-80bf-72e9-980b-ccd1c0cd3488", "description": "You visualise two futures side by side: the trajectory the target is on\ntoday, and the trajectory under your proposed intervention. The reader\nhas to see the delta to feel the stakes.\n\nIt's the rhetorical cousin of the peer-gap — same visual grammar\n(comparison), but across **time** instead of across peers.", "familyLabel": null, "categoryName": null, "categorySlug": null }, "agent": null, "layer": "document", "agents": null, "matchId": "c52747b9-6f9b-49d7-81d3-96745b5aea7e", "evidence": null, "pageRefs": null, "priority": null, "whenToUse": "For turnaround / reform proposals", "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-29 12:07:50.073129+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": null, "whyItWorks": "- It **quantifies the opportunity cost** of inaction. \"Doing nothing\"\n becomes a concrete, visible path, not an abstraction.\n- It **makes the Answer tangible**. The prescription isn't a paragraph;\n it's a trajectory the reader can point at.\n- It **pre-empts the status-quo defence**. Management usually argues \"we\n have a plan\". 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Strong SCQA structure: bull interpretation vs Spruce Point interpretation panels (p.6) deliver clear before/after framing. Page 70 is a textbook CEO-quote-contradiction slide showing four years of JP Morgan Healthcare Conference quotes where management proudly disclosed patient base, then suddenly stopped. The villain is institutional (management writ large) rather than a single named CEO; CFO Quentin Blackford appears in a quoted analyst note. Stake size not disclosed (typical of short reports — Spruce Point only states they hold short positions in the disclaimer).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "45-60% to $65-$85 per share from $146.82", "metric": "Near-term downside to share price" }, { "detail": "DXCM at 9.1x FY20E vs. peer average 5.8x — a 57% premium", "metric": "EV/Sales premium to peers" }, { "detail": "Libre 2 priced at ~80% discount; $977.68/yr vs $5,196 for G6", "metric": "Abbott Libre 2 vs Dexcom G6 sensor cost" }, { "detail": "Abbott takes 72% of T1 and 96% of T2 incremental share in 2018", "metric": "U.S. CGM incremental market share" }, { "detail": "Only ~143K patients (92K T1 + 51K T2) at prevailing share", "metric": "Remaining U.S. patient runway for Dexcom" }, { "detail": "~56% increase on a cost-per-day basis vs. hackable G4/G5", "metric": "Effective sensor price increase on G6 users" }, { "detail": "53% — Spruce Point claims inflated by stockpiling and price hikes", "metric": "Sales growth YoY (Q4 2018)" }, { "detail": "Down to 1.8% in 2018 from 8.2% in 2012", "metric": "Insider ownership" }, { "detail": "DXCM fell -33% (Sep 2017) and -7% (Jul 2018)", "metric": "Stock-price reaction to prior Libre FDA approvals" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell DXCM shares: Spruce Point sees 45-60% near-term downside to $65-$85 per share with significant longer-term tail risk as the U.S. T1 market exhausts, the T2 market remains unreachable, and the Libre 2 forces industry-wide pricing pressure.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:55:24+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 129.5727, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Spruce Point sees 45-60% near-term downside to $65-$85 per share based on FY20 revenue of $1.16-1.26B at a 5-6x multiple, with even more significant longer-term tail risk if Dexcom fails to compete in T2.", "thesisTypes": [ "multiple_rerating", "fraud_exposure" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Abbott's cheaper Libre 2 closes the technology gap and is priced ~80% below Dexcom's G6", "Recent sales growth driven by stealth price hikes and G4/G5 sensor stockpiling, not patient growth", "DXCM trades at 57% EV/Sales premium to peers despite imminent commoditization risk" ], "scqaSituation": "Dexcom is the dominant stand-alone CGM maker, whose G6 has been considered the gold standard for Type 1 diabetics, and whose stock has run up sharply on the bull narrative of expanding CGM adoption.", "thesisSummary": "Spruce Point argues Dexcom is a one-product company whose recent revenue acceleration is misleadingly inflated by an effective ~56% sensor price increase and channel stockpiling of legacy G4/G5 sensors ahead of the G6 launch — not by underlying patient growth, which management conveniently stopped disclosing in FY18. Abbott's forthcoming Libre 2 will be technologically comparable to the G6 but priced at an ~80% discount, with Abbott already capturing >70% of incremental U.S. T1 share and >95% of T2 share. Dexcom has no down-market product to bridge the ~18-month gap to a delayed G7, leaving its T1 runway exhausted (only 0.3M patients left) and the T2 market untouchable at G-Series prices. At a 57% EV/Sales premium to peers and a multiple that has stalled despite revenue beats, Spruce Point sees 45-60% near-term downside to $65-$85 per share.", "primaryDemands": [ "Sell DXCM shares (Strong Sell rating)", "Management should resume disclosing patient base growth figures it stopped reporting in FY18" ], "scqaResolution": "Sell DXCM. 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"position": 0, "objective": "Identify patterns in Dexcom's growth story that contradict the market's interpretation.", "confidence": 0.7, "extraction": { "at": "2026-07-16 21:59:47.419727+00", "model": "or:meta-llama/llama-4-scout", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": "doc-narrative-v1" } } ], "locked": true }, { "page": 8, "type": "resolution", "title": "Uses a combination of bar charts for market penetration and pie charts for incremental share to calculate a final 'runway' figure.", "function": "size_opportunity", "rawType": "market_sizing", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "market_sizing", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Market sizing", "slug": "market_sizing", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-08c8-756c-8664-733b73a7ee7b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "size_opportunity", "functionCanon": { "name": "Size opportunity", "slug": "size_opportunity", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-147b-7568-8828-a74a27697618", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 64, "componentCount": 9, "textChars": 526, "nDataPoints": 10, "notes": "Uses a combination of bar charts for market penetration and pie charts for incremental share to calculate a final 'runway' figure.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "bar_chart_stacked", "pie_chart", "callout_box", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "seconds": 3.16, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/8", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-8", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.62, "x": 0.19, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "143K remaining U.S. patients for Dexcom at prevailing incremental market share levels", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c0251e79-ba8a-4f6c-9fc0-859e47800905", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Remaining U.S. T1 Market Opportunity", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Stacked bar chart", "slug": "bar-stacked", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-feec-74bf-9028-15b74f84f0a7", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-stacked", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0eb77e60-77b3-4901-b5ca-74a99cb47f81", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Remaining U.S. Insulin-Dependent T2 Market Opportunity", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Stacked bar chart", "slug": "bar-stacked", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-feec-74bf-9028-15b74f84f0a7", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-stacked", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d28c8271-abb3-4597-95e4-b0b3a74b89d4", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "RECENT U.S. T1 INCREMENTAL MARKET SHARE", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pie chart", "slug": "pie", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ffdb-71bb-a800-5c5ab9f1c373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "63ec0dc9-e7b6-40bb-a055-7eb5a06d9b96", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "RECENT U.S. T2 INCREMENTAL MARKET SHARE", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pie chart", "slug": "pie", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ffdb-71bb-a800-5c5ab9f1c373", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pie", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "dfe15346-bef7-441c-bd05-b50a4f9717f5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "patient runway: 143K", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:16+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd87-a1f43e29061d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.03, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "After just one year on the market, Abbott's FreeStyle Libre already has 25% of the U.S. T1 CGM market and a whopping 82% of the U.S. T2 CGM market...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ae6b7144-2915-4f08-ba25-363bcf27e942", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.01, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Estimates", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. Numbered footnotes use attrs.numbered." }, "tool": null, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5f8d6bd6-ea4f-4fbf-a938-0f6d06e7e263", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.03 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Remaining Growth Runway In Dexcom's Target U.S. Market Is Severely Limited", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "121a786c-3923-498f-83ad-ab82324723ca", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "84ac5b27-55ad-4950-ab83-3030c2fb3ff9", "evidence": "Calculates total addressable market runway based on current share and penetration.", "framework": null, "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:49.838+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "pageNumber": 8, "frameworkName": "market-sizing" } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 10, "arc": { "name": "Overcoming the Monster", "slug": "overcoming-monster", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Competitive positioning, rallying teams", "canonId": "019dd956-6339-76ac-9cbf-4b377c3aa89e", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2356-73eb-8061-d8c81dc0aa49", "structure": "The Monster -> The Call -> The Struggle -> The Victory -> The New Order", "description": null, "familyLabel": null }, "from": 6, "name": "Complication", "beatId": "bceaf7b2-e6b0-4b8d-96ae-991272dd6aa1", "matchId": "8f928e43-e85f-489a-8ade-16180ab88ab2", "beatType": { "name": "Complication", "slug": "complication", "status": "active", "canonId": "019dd9b8-0275-7709-b2d6-4f77c3fc7579", "version": 1, "description": "The point in the narrative where the audience should feel discomfort. 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"Revenue Growth, YoY", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:54.261+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "363bcdce-3f5f-4e93-8140-0a2e7f51d064", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.52, "y": 0.42 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Sensor Revenue Growth vs. Transmitter Revenue Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", 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null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-43ca4de0486e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.91 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Spruce Point believes that the market interprets Dexcom's total revenue growth as a sign of healthy growth in its underlying patient base. We believe that Dexcom's recent aggregate revenue growth is inflated by one-time factors...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:54.261+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "802e8013-9186-420f-8faf-c47876fe3147", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The market interprets Dexcom's recent sales growth acceleration as proof that the bull case is playing out... Our diligence reveals that a significant share of G4 and G5 users \"hack\" their sensors... many G4 and G5 users stockpiled \"cheaper\" legacy sensors...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:54.261+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "85b57ff0-6c32-4048-9d43-5233875e263c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.15, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Dexcom SEC Filings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Required for argumentative arcs." }, "evidence": "Spruce Point presents several complications, including the market's misinterpretation of Dexcom's sales growth and limited patient growth.", "position": 1, "isPrimaryArc": true, "parentBeatType": null, "alignedBlockIds": null, "matchConfidence": 0.8 } ], "loops": [ { "to": 10, "from": 6, "loop": { "name": "02_pattern_hunter", "slug": "02-pattern-hunter", "status": "active", "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong", "canonId": "019dd956-6695-771a-be2e-f1748ef041a4", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": "019df22a-2420-77be-bc41-ded96d08cb21", "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion", "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion", "familyLabel": null }, "matchId": "ec60a922-a471-43e6-9110-ad29b38faf08", "evidence": "The deck presents several contradictions in Dexcom's growth story, highlighting the market's misinterpretation.", 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"h": 0.3, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Bloomberg Weekly New Prescriptions Written Relative Pharmacy Market Share, Dexcom vs. Abbott", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Stacked bar chart (100%)", "slug": "bar-stacked-100pct", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff14-71b8-8d88-860f8d7da84b", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-stacked-100pct", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:03.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "11936feb-5d05-4c71-80a3-2d2556bb47f9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.3, "w": 0.35, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Bloomberg Weekly New Prescriptions Written Total New Prescriptions Written, Dexcom vs. Abbott", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Vertical bar chart", "slug": "bar-vertical", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fe9d-70f2-b3b7-a9ae294f5917", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "bar-vertical", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:03.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4e5e5f2e-e9cd-4e27-86c1-9f8189356dd7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.4, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.41, "y": 0.28 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Multiple Expansion-Driven Share Price Appreciation Is Losing Steam", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:03.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "451c495e-b513-4e8e-a53b-d4f5978d69c8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "market share: >90%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:17+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-5f294656ff77", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Patient adoption trends through the pharmacy channel demonstrate that the Abbott has dominated Dexcom in recent share gains. Data provided by Symphony Health Solutions dating back to the first week of 2018 show that Abbott is capturing >90% of the pharmacy channel when compared directly to Dexcom. We believe that this demonstrates that, after 4-5 years of CGM adoption among T1 diabetics, the strongest opportunity for future adoption lies among ID T2 diabetics – and that the Libre is by far the best solution for these patients at current prices.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:03.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4164df47-4721-4b3b-8d2a-c0eee67ea26f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.54, "x": 0.41, "y": 0.7 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Meanwhile, while DXCM share price appreciation was driven largely by multiple expansion through H1 FY18, the stock has been range-bound since the middle of FY18 despite continued revenue beats, and the multiple has contracted to some extent on recent sales growth. We believe that the smart money has observed recent prescription trends via Bloomberg and other sources, and sees that Libre share gains have inflected higher since July '18. Insider sales have also accelerated over the same period. We believe that the multiple will contract further towards early FY18 levels as Dexcom's true underlying patient growth trajectory becomes more obvious to the broader market.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:03.068+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "a6f07df4-3efe-4c6e-a834-e2a78a040af9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg Symphony Health Solutions. 1. Abbott new prescription data includes both Libre 10-Day and Libre 14-Day sensors. Dexcom new prescription data includes G4, G5, and G6 sensors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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"rawType": "preempt_rebuttal", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "preempt_rebuttal", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 57, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 1223, "nDataPoints": 6, "notes": "The slide uses historical precedent to argue that the market underestimates the impact of Abbott's product launches on Dexcom's valuation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "comparison_table", "footnote" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:51.195+00", "seconds": 3.858, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/12", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-12", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "The forthcoming Libre 2 is at least as consequential as Abbott's past two CGMs from a competitive perspective, and could cause a more drastic move in DXCM shares.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-7e7b7d585f6c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Price Reaction: -33%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd88-82f4259c01e7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Abbott's Libre has dominated Dexcom's G-Series in recent head-to-head competition for market share even before the release of the Libre 2, which should close most or all of the technological gaps which remain between the Libre and G-Series. The U.S. launch of the technologically-strong, yet inexpensive Libre 2 could undermine what remains of the G-Series' competitive position. The market expects the release of the Libre 2, of course – but it also knew that Abbott was set to release new CGMs in 2017 and 2018, yet Dexcom's stock still suffered in the immediate aftermath. 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I use the metaphor of screws, once you converge on how many threads per inch and diameters of screws then innovations stops at the screw level and it goes up a level to machines. What machines can we build from those screws. So that commoditizes the screws. So, vendors are generally reluctant to do this. If you are a screw maker, 'look I got a fancy screw. I should get more money for my screw. Fortunately or unfortunately, many of these base technologies like CGM and insulin pumps are now sort of at that screw level that they are all good enough. They are serving the needs, they are accurate enough. Now we are going to see innovation one level up, at the machine level at the automated insulin delivery system.' - Lane Desborough", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:54.029+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "29fdd8db-d213-4267-ac76-44d95c9e0045", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.23, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.72 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "From a clinical perspective, we are now nitpicking [in regards to accuracy of CGMs]. As long as the patient know that [they need to react] that is more important.... In the life of the user, the differences [in accuracy between Dexcom and Abbott’s CGMs] will not change what the patient will do. Whether the reading is 52 or 62, the patient behaves the same way. I don't think the accuracy argument negates [Abbott over Dexcom]. It does not make a difference to me which [CGM] they use, the data is the data. As long as it is accurate enough for decision making [which they all are]. [Libre 2] having the alarms will even the playing field because this is the most common complaint for the [current version]. The Libre 2 is going to level the playing field. The Libre 2 is going to be a significant improvement. A patient who is seriously thinking about a CGM, it is going to be more about cost, [logistics of obtaining the device, and ease of use] rather than worrying about the nuances of accuracy. - Renowned Endocrinologist With Significant Patient Treatment Experience", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:54.029+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6a8613b6-e18b-47ae-9ef1-e0c7bcc8a57a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.23, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We looked at lot of detailed performance data for the Libre sensor. The difference in accuracy [between Abbott and Dexcom] is not that significant when it comes to feedback control. For closed loop feedback systems [the] absolute measurement of the sensor is not that important. What is more important is the rate of change of the continuous glucose monitor.... When you take all of these things into account, the better performance of the Dexcom washes out...it is not as significant. I don't think the error rates between [Abbott and Dexcom] are consequential. Abbott has been in a very similar path [compared to Dexcom in regards to improving accuracy in hypoglycemic range]. I would not be surprised if the next generation of the Libre system gets even better in [the hypoglycemic range] as well. If you look at both of them. The core technology that both Abbott and Dexcom have been using, is the exact same core technology that they started using ten years ago. 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"at": "2026-05-02 20:41:55.461+00", "seconds": 4.137, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/38", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-38", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Abbott management is aware that, given current G-Series prices and its own production cost advantages, offering the Libre at a lower price point allows it to take overwhelming incremental market share while still earning attractive margins. We should expect management to continue to price the Libre aggressively with respect to the G-Series.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:55.461+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "feb24244-de54-4401-b3f1-109fa8e8b6e8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Abbott management is aware that, given current G-Series prices and its own production cost advantages, offering the Libre at a lower price point allows it to take overwhelming incremental market share while still earning attractive margins.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:22+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8b-c5dcdb56bf87", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.14, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Rather than maintain a low price on the Libre 2 to attempt to pressure Dexcom into cutting G-Series prices to unsustainable levels, might Abbott management instead raise prices on the technologically-advanced Libre 2 to increase its own margins? As management has already priced the Libre 2 in line with original Libre prices in Europe, we suspect that the Libre 2 will be priced in line with the original Libre in the U.S. as well. Further, and importantly, when asked about the possibility of competing with Dexcom at the “upper end” of the market, Abbott management made it clear that it is well-aware of the cost pressures facing Dexcom, and that it is prepared to leverage its cost advantage to keep prices low and take share.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:55.461+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6c872884-2bb7-4962-97a2-5ea58e976c3e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "And maybe a follow-up on Libre. This is a product that's been wildly successful. You're now over $100 million run rate in the U.S., over $1 billion globally, and you really have one major competitor here that's -- let's call it at the upper end of the technology scale. And Abbott, I view as the low-cost, easy-to-access, very easy-to-use product in continuous glucose monitoring. So, as we think about the evolution of Libre over the next few years, how do you think about Libre staying at the lower end of the cost and ease-of-use curve versus moving up and trying to compete with your main competitor there? Thanks. - Robbie Marcus – Analyst, J.P. Morgan", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:55.461+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0b3054eb-7552-4a9a-bdce-2ebbb5697264", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.22, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.32, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Well, I'll tell you, interestingly enough, I don't actually look at it the way you just described. I think Libre is a pretty different product. It's got tremendous capability, but given that value point that we have it priced at, it is accessible to patients all over the world.... And in our case, we have a much lower cost and far greater automated manufacturing capability to not only allow that cost, but to allow for mass production. And that's the path we've taken.... So I'd say, at this point, we're making healthy profits on this product. We have no intention of changing the value proposition at all. And your question sort of suggests that we would raise price in order to be competitive, I'd say, you want to be asking the other side, what they're going to do to make themselves a value proposition, because this product is incredibly good value proposition, which is why it's got such high demand. - Miles White – CEO, Abbott Laboratories", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:55.461+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5600504b-cf6c-459c-b89f-c4ba8e8ec09c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"And maybe a follow-up on Libre. This is a product that's been wildly successful. You're now over $100 million run rate in the U.S., over $1 billion globally, and you really have one major competitor here that's -- let's call it at the upper end of the technology scale. And Abbott, I view as the low-cost, easy-to-access, very easy-to-use product in continuous glucose monitoring. So, as we think about the evolution of Libre over the next few years, how do you think about Libre staying at the lower end of the cost and ease-of-use curve versus moving up and trying to compete with your main competitor there? Thanks.\" — Robbie Marcus, Analyst, J.P. Morgan; \"Well, I'll tell you, interestingly enough, I don't actually look at it the way you just described. I think Libre is a pretty different product. It's got tremendous capability, but given that value point that we have it priced at, it is accessible to patients all over the world.... 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And your question sort of suggests that we would raise price in order to be competitive, I'd say, you want to be asking the other side, what they're going to do to make themselves a value proposition, because this product is incredibly good value proposition, which is why it's got such high demand.\" — Miles White, CEO, Abbott Laboratories", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:22+00", "model": 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In Europe, where the Libre 2 is already available as of 2018, Libre uptake has been rapid, driving worldwide customer base growth of over 100% in every year since 2016 (versus <50% in every year for Dexcom). Further, in just its first year in the U.S. market, the Libre’s customer base has already surpassed those of Dexcom and other competitors. 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In particular, Abbott is in the process of obtaining “preferred co-pay” status with major PBMs and insurers. Our diligence reveals that Abbott has obtained Tier 2 (preferred co-pay) status across almost all Anthem insurance plans (166 out of 168). By comparison, only 15 of 168 Anthem plans offer Tier 2 coverage on Dexcom CGMs. Tier 2 co-pays generally range from $15 to $50 versus Tier 3 co-pays that range from $50 to $150. 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Usually it's on a very small scale.\" — Dexcom Q4 FY18 Earnings Call", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:22+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8b-dfc9ccafbaf5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.1, "x": 0.78, "y": 0.58 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Formulary Lookup", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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As discussed, the Libre performed impressively in its first year on the market, achieving 38% share in just one year. Note that, before the introduction of the Libre in 2018, Dexcom’s impressive growth came against no real competition in the stand-alone CGM market, as Medtronic and Eversense do not fit this definition. The market remains a two-man race between Abbott and Dexcom. We see the total U.S. CGM market as 25% penetrated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.127+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7025c16a-3d8f-43ad-a6f1-62c87f3ea067", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.96 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Spruce Point Estimates ABT, DXCM, MDT, SENS SEC Filings, Transcripts and Corporate Presentations, American Diabetes Association. 1. Other includes US patient estimates for Medtronic and Eversense", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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{ "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.127+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "42285ad6-aeec-4781-9552-5de66cd1a73d", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.55, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "table", "text": "Core U.S. CGM Market Penetration", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Table", "slug": "table", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9c8-7148-8119-eaac9594cd28", "version": 1, "description": "Tabular data layout." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Data table", "slug": "data", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-02d5-75b8-8abf-88e92bf63569", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "data", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.127+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": 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"extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.278+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8f03e7ae-03bb-4a01-87a9-42f12a192954", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "U.S. T1 CGM penetration: 50%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:24+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8c-f8aeed81c639", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.96, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Market participants tend to paint a rosy picture of the remaining U.S. T1 CGM growth opportunity. Abbott, for example, recently offered an estimate of U.S. T1 CGM penetration of ~33% at a sell-side healthcare conference. However, we find numerous credible sources which estimate U.S. T1 penetration closer to 50%. This includes two well-respected sell-side firms with detailed CGM market models. Importantly, a team of academics and medical doctors found that U.S. T1 CGM penetration was 38% as of March 2018, and that penetration grew by ~7% annually through the last two years. With penetration now accelerating, we believe that this corroborates our view that the U.S. T1 CGM market is ~50% penetrated.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.278+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "487364b5-1185-4882-a287-3df24c7958ab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Foster et al. \"State of Type 1 Diabetes Management and Outcomes from the T1D Exchange in 2016-2018.\" Diabetes Technology & Therapeutics. Volume 21, Number 2, 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:24+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8c-f7408c3bbbbb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.46, "x": 0.02, "y": 0.79 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Foster et al. \"State of Type 1 Diabetes Management and Outcomes from the T1D Exchange in 2016-2018.\" Diabetes Technology & Therapeutics. Volume 21, Number 2, 2019.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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If it tops out at 70-80%, growth should begin to decelerate in the coming quarters.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.789+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d2647752-6a67-4ea9-b313-de82527286ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.1, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.84 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Dexcom has found little success penetrating the insulin-dependent T2 market. We believe that it will continue to struggle as most of its technological advantages are erased.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.789+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "eeb306c2-a2e6-47ab-bdad-df742ac96858", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "incremental market share: 96%", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:23+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8c-dd9d32aacd1c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.16 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The U.S. T1 CGM market will likely approach a near-saturation point within the next one to two years. As T1 adoption decelerates, the battleground for new customer adoption will move to the insulin-dependent T2 market, for which Dexcom's current CGM lineup is ill-suited. Notably, we estimate that the Libre claimed a tremendous ~96% of incremental CGM market share through 2018. This is corroborated by prescription data.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.789+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "baf6cb07-e815-4f0e-a7cd-81b5a09c7fb5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.6, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.95 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Sources: Spruce Point Estimates ABT, DXCM, MDT, SENS SEC Filings, Transcripts and Corporate Presentations, American Diabetes Association 1. Other includes US patient estimates for Medtronic and Eversense", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Data provided by Symphony Health Solutions dating back to the first week of 2018 show that Abbott is currently capturing over 90% of the pharmacy channel when compared directly to Dexcom. We believe that this demonstrates that, after 4-5 years of CGM adoption among T1 diabetics, the strongest opportunity for future adoption lies among insulin-dependent T2 diabetics – and that the Libre is by far the best solution for these patients at current prices, and given Dexcom’s current lineup of CGMs.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.421+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "759b026a-a313-4816-acd1-935321c41bfc", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.51, "y": 0.76 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "We saw an accelerating trend of new users as we ramped up our awareness efforts during the second half of the year and pharmacy insurance coverage continued to increase including an emerging trend of seeing Libre granted preferred co-pay status versus competitive systems due to its compelling overall value proposition. - Abbott 4Q FY18 Conference Call (Jan 23, 2019)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:57.421+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d09e67b1-f8f5-48e3-8a13-5bcbf5d28ea3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "We saw an accelerating trend of new users as we ramped up our awareness efforts during the second half of the year and pharmacy insurance coverage continued to increase including an emerging trend of seeing Libre granted preferred co-pay status versus competitive systems due to its compelling overall value proposition. — Abbott 4Q FY18 Conference Call (Jan 23, 2019)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:23+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8c-9d49b55ffd56", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.93 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Bloomberg Symphony Health Solutions. 1. 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However, our conversations with medical professionals suggest that 20-30% of T1 patients will likely not adopt CGMs for reasons including cost, comfort, etc. This leaves just ~330K unclaimed patients in the U.S. T1 runway, just half the perceived remaining T1 market. Further, with only price-sensitive late adopters remaining in this market, we believe that Abbott will claim material share of the remaining U.S. T1 market. If Abbott continues to claim ~70% incremental share of the U.S. T1 market, only ~90,000 U.S. T1 patients remain for the taking by Dexcom. The vast majority of the remaining U.S. market opportunity lies among T2 customers, who, again, are largely untouchable by Dexcom at the G-Series' current price point. 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The apparent pervasiveness of G4/G5 sensor stockpiling also further corroborates our finding that Dexcom users are more price-sensitive than bulls believe, and that the Libre 2 will be a greater draw among Dexcom users than the sell side expects.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:59.188+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "197192ab-8ae2-4a6c-a82b-4ab5ba4d19ff", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Interestingly, and crucially, our survey also indicates that legacy Dexcom CGM users stockpiled their older and cheaper G4 and G5 sensors in anticipation of the release of the G6. 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Why did sensor sales grow faster?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7ca9db9b-7f6a-47e6-b503-21aa545f93fa", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.25, "x": 0.73, "y": 0.82 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Transmitter sales growth did not accelerate in Q3 despite the recognition of the $5M of deferred transmitter revenue. So accelerated sensor growth ahead of transmitter growth caused by legacy sensor stockpiling?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d08fe827-b50c-42ef-b26e-efed9c6145fe", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We feel that the relative acceleration in sensor growth is much better explained by the fact that customers stockpiled legacy sensors ahead of the release of the more expensive G6, as our survey confirms.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-3f830e40e4da", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "On the Q2 FY18 earnings call, management admitted that outsized sales growth in Q2 was largely driven by G5 sales rather than G6 sales...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "41c93ab6-38e1-45d6-9851-093e009c0bec", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.73 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "...We talked about this promotional program of G5 into G6... roughly $5 million or so that didn't come in in Q2. You normalize for that and you've got a growth rate in your transmitter business that's right back up in line...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "0fe40ebe-118f-4544-b406-3afd2c977b04", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.7, "x": 0.28, "y": 0.48 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "It comes back to general awareness... All of us are going to win together, and I think that's exactly what you just saw play out in Q2.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.206+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1c906f0a-a2ac-45e7-b984-cdece964cd07", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"It comes back to general awareness. I just think awareness in this marketplace is increasing significantly... All of us are going to win together, and I think that's exactly what you just saw play out in Q2.\" — Quentin Blackford, CFO, Dexcom; \"...We talked about this promotional program of G5 into G6. That played out in the quarter and there's still a bit of deferral that will come back in the back part of the year...\" — Quentin Blackford, CFO, Dexcom", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-40d6a0af5d4e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.2, "x": 0.75, "y": 0.97 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Dexcom FY18 Q3 10-Q", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Stockpiling ceases, but sensor AND transmitter sales see accelerated growth at similar rates as G4 and G5 users purchase new G6 equipment en masse.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6097c7eb-eada-427b-aa4f-47c66a09cb68", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.34, "y": 0.6 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Q2 to Q3 FY18: FDA approves G6 in Q2. Management accelerates G6 rollout to end of Q2. Stockpiling of G4 and G5 continues through Q2-Q3. Sensor sales growth levels off but remains elevated due to stockpiling.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7a509d45-9ea4-4b32-8265-57ce8bef1cc6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.28, "x": 0.12, "y": 0.38 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Q1 to Q2 FY18: DXCM announces G6 under review by FDA in Q1. In Q2, G4 and G5 users begin to stockpile legacy sensors in anticipation of a forced switch to a more expensive and potentially unhackable G6. Sensor sales growth accelerates in Q2.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e0bc11cc-ca7d-426c-8251-b4db3501807a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We find it interesting that management raised the price of G5 transmitters such that the annual cost of continuing to use a hacked G5 is now almost identical to the annual cost of using a G6.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-12af2d8c59e3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.55, "w": 0.75, "x": 0.06, "y": 0.31 }, "kind": "chart", "text": "Sensor Revenue Growth vs. Transmitter Revenue Growth", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Chart", "slug": "chart", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f9a0-76ef-adc6-0b859109d1f8", "version": 1, "description": "Quantitative chart." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Line chart", "slug": "line", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-ff62-778f-8f6c-a952ceae8677", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "line", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "7777ea53-74bb-4b00-960f-329b9276b32c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Revenue Growth, YoY", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-163d7e9b42e1", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "While we believe that legacy sensor stockpiling is but one factor among several which might have contributed to the sensor growth / transmitter growth decoupling, we note that observed growth patterns in sensor revenue and transmitter revenue match what we would expect to see if G4 and G5 users did in fact stockpile sensors.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "57308b61-f179-4147-bd7a-e1405928d671", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.9, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.87 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We find it interesting that management raised the price of G5 transmitters such that the annual cost of continuing to use a hacked G5 is now almost identical to the annual cost of using a G6. We suspect that management may have been aware of the G4/G5 stockpiling and recognizes that recent sales growth may be inflated due to this behavior.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9260755e-e699-4192-836a-cf2eae5b422f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.65, "x": 0.31, "y": 0.05 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Sensor Revenue Growth Pattern vs. Transmitter Revenue Growth Conforms To Stockpiling Hypothesis", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:00.562+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "15cacff0-bf00-403b-97ea-59097f68772d", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "matchId": "40ab8272-9907-405b-a439-0aec52a97bf3", "evidence": "The slide links management actions (price hikes, product rollouts) to customer behavior (stockpiling) 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"version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "overcrowded", "densityScore": 95, "componentCount": 11, "textChars": 2378, "nDataPoints": 18, "notes": "Uses a series of quotes to contrast past transparency with current obfuscation.", "elementsJson": [ "headline_text", "paragraph", "quote_block", "data_table" ], "confidence": 1, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:06.135+00", "seconds": 9.348, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f/70", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f#slide-70", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-916758668d1f.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "We find it extremely suspicious that management conveniently chose to stop disclosing this number this year, just as their TAM runway is beginning to run out by our estimates, and just as product-level sales growth patterns appear to reveal sales growth has been driven by factors other than growth in the patient base.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-5613e27d42e6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", 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The Company suddenly stopped disclosing this figure in FY18. We find it extremely suspicious that management conveniently chose to stop disclosing this number this year, just as their TAM runway is beginning to run out by our estimates, and just as product-level sales growth patterns appear to reveal sales growth has been driven by factors other than growth in the patient base.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:06.135+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "641cb33d-3619-4345-88ea-117cdb7acd3c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.375 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...we're disclosing patient base numbers for the first time - so investors and analysts alike can kind of reset their bar in their models - between 140,000 and 150,000 patients around the world.\" - JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/12/16)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:06.135+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b0d6e3d1-869e-4d3c-a379-8cb285f7ca23", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.035, "y": 0.645 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"Last year we set a patient base goal at this conference saying we would exit this year with approximately 270,000 patients in our patient base and we have achieved that goal as well.\" - 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Q4 FY18 Earnings Call (2/21/19)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:06.135+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ede11ab1-badb-4fb4-a7bd-9ee15b6f1b11", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"...we're disclosing patient base numbers for the first time - so investors and analysts alike can kind of reset their bar in their models - between 140,000 and 150,000 patients around the world.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/12/16); \"Our worldwide patient base we now peg at about 200,000 patients.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/10/17); \"Last year we set a patient base goal at this conference saying we would exit this year with approximately 270,000 patients in our patient base and we have achieved that goal as well.\" — JP Morgan Healthcare Conference (1/9/18); \"...we're not going to talk about the install base or the patient number.\" — Q4 FY18 Earnings Call (2/21/19)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:26+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-5b574b5047f6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.02, "w": 0.3, "x": 0.43, "y": 0.86 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Dexcom conference calls and investor meetings", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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It's impossible to know without management's patient base disclosure. Yet management continues to lead analysts to believe that the patient base is growing robustly without disclosing the size of its patient base explicitly. We find that, in reality, (1) Abbott is taking overwhelming incremental market share, and (2) higher effective sensor prices and G4 / G5 sensor stockpiling helped to fuel recent sales growth, flying in the face of management's claim that revenue per customer has been falling. We call on management to once again disclose the size of its patient base rather than issue oblique, unverifiable claims about trends in revenue per customer. 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Morgan Healthcare Conference. In the break-out session, CFO Quentin Blackford provided incremental color on the company's outlook for 2019, specifically that guidance contemplates $20-25M in revenue headwinds per quarter from the transition from the DME to the pharmacy channel, similar to the ~$20M headwind that the company saw impact sales in 4Q18. This accounts for a ~10% top-line headwind and implies that underlying volume guidance is +25-30%, versus the +15-20% overall revenue guidance issued ($1.175-1.225B).\" - JP Morgan Research Note (1/4/19)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:41:59.967+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7c1f6c1-9712-4813-89c5-a5a18ace8441", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"This morning, Dexcom management presented and hosted a Q&A break-out session at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. In the break-out session, CFO Quentin Blackford provided incremental color on the company's outlook for 2019, specifically that guidance contemplates $20-25M in revenue headwinds per quarter from the transition from the DME to the pharmacy channel, similar to the ~$20M headwind that the company saw impact sales in 4Q18. This accounts for a ~10% top-line headwind and implies that underlying volume guidance is +25-30%, versus the +15-20% overall revenue guidance issued ($1.175-1.225B).\" — JP Morgan Research Note (1/4/19)", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 22:57:25+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-f5d2-7501-bd8e-2d6f0e31ebd7", 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"components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.18, "x": 0.81, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Late FY18 / Early FY19: Stock range-bound despite continued revenue beats – suggests investor wariness of recent growth trends and concerns over Libre share gains since July '18", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:02.22+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "51b28fe3-100c-43e7-a8be-4d27930ef165", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.16, "x": 0.4, "y": 0.33 }, "kind": "callout", "text": "Early FY18: DXCM stock price appreciation driven largely by multiple expansion", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Primary callout", "slug": "primary", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbd1-70eb-a9ce-8997f8674c1d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:02.22+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9c6e7cbc-28e9-417f-99b5-733a5af0780a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "Accordingly, we believe that DXCM shares would be more properly valued at 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