Ben Axler · activist-deck
Maxar Technologies (MAXR)
68 pages · 4 arc beats · 4 loops
Maxar Technologies (MAXR)
Ben Axler · 2018-08 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 4 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
4 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 112 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Introduction 2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 8 hits — 0/2 slides
50% 1/2 slides — 0/2 slides
100% 2/2 slides — 0/2 slides
Problem Introduction 3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides · 13 hits — 0/3 slides
66.7% 2/3 slides · 3 hits 66.7% 2/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides — 0/3 slides
Contradictions and Criticisms 61 slides 100% 61/61 slides 100% 61/61 slides · 397 hits — 0/61 slides
9.8% 6/61 slides 78.7% 48/61 slides · 49 hits 100% 61/61 slides · 107 hits 39.3% 24/61 slides Preemptive Rebuttals 46 slides 100% 46/46 slides 100% 46/46 slides · 311 hits — 0/46 slides
2.2% 1/46 slides 78.3% 36/46 slides · 37 hits 100% 46/46 slides · 92 hits 34.8% 16/46 slides Slide inventory
68 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The visual metaphor of a burning satellite re-entering the atmosphere is a strong, aggressive visual hook.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Introduction
03
The slide establishes credibility by highlighting the firm's history, rankings, and a table of historical successes.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Introduction
04
The slide uses a comparison table to validate the firm's track record by showing specific outcomes for four past campaigns.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Introduction
06
Uses a 'Lemon + Lime = Lemon Aid' metaphor to mock the merger of DigitalGlobe and MDA into Maxar.expose_contradiction
07
The slide uses a two-point structure to categorize the thesis into historical acquisition failure and current management/governance concerns.diagnose_problem
08
The slide uses a numbered list format to detail specific grievances, including accounting irregularities, management turnover, and failed business projections.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
09
The slide uses a numbered list format (4) to structure the core arguments against the company.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
10
Includes a specific callout on the Ukraine liability and debt maturity cliff in 2020.show_valuation_bridge
11
The slide uses a 'Fantasy vs. Reality' framing to discredit management guidance and analyst consensus.expose_contradiction
12
The slide uses a 'precedent' framework to establish credibility by linking current target (Maxar) to a past successful short campaign (NCR).cite_precedent
14
The slide uses a classic 'Concern vs. Evidence' table structure common in activist short reports.diagnose_problem
15
Uses dual charts to show the correlation between industry cycles and company performance, highlighting the 2012 acquisition point.expose_contradiction
16
The table includes a summary row for total capex and year-over-year growth percentages.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
17
Includes a stacked bar chart and a pro-forma calculation table to demonstrate organic decline.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
18
Uses a callout box to zoom in on Note 6 of the financial statements to show the lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
19
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by contrasting the target company's (Maxar) lack of disclosure with the transparency of its peers.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
20
The slide uses a table to contrast company disclosures against the binary question of whether an exact annual charge was disclosed.expose_contradiction
21
The slide uses a precedent table to establish a pattern of behavior in the industry.cite_precedent
22
Uses Bloomberg terminal charts to illustrate precedent for stock price reactions to accounting issues.preempt_rebuttal
23
The slide uses a red border to draw attention to the target company (MacDonald Dettwiler) and its outlier metrics.compare_peers
24
The chart uses a vertical red line to demarcate the pre-merger and post-merger periods.expose_contradiction
25
Uses a peer benchmark to expose accounting aggressive behavior.expose_contradiction
26
The slide uses a before-after comparison to highlight a shift in financial metrics following an acquisition.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
27
The chart uses a red flag icon to draw attention to the MDA Communications line, which is significantly higher than the peer group.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
28
The slide uses a direct excerpt from a financial report to demonstrate a lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
29
Highlights the discrepancy between the 2013 figures reported in the 2013 Annual Report versus the 2014 Annual Report.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
30
The slide uses a red flag icon to draw attention to the specific accounting practice being criticized.expose_contradiction
31
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'Adjusted Free Cash Flow' row and a red arrow to highlight the 'Total Debt' row for the LTM 6/30/18 period.diagnose_problem
32
The slide uses a red arrow to visually emphasize the trend of increasing DSO over time.expose_contradiction
33
The red box highlights the 2015-2016 period where receivables past due and notes receivable increased significantly.expose_contradiction
34
The slide uses a timeline to suggest a pattern of leadership flight, implying internal issues or lack of confidence in the company's direction.expose_contradiction
35
The slide uses a collage of external analyst reports (CIBC, BMO, GMP Securities) to highlight the gap between analyst optimism and actual performance.expose_contradiction
36
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).transition
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
37
The slide uses a red flag icon and bold text to emphasize negative outcomes (e.g., 'Shares decline as much as 35%').name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
38
Uses a red star and red callout box to highlight specific inaccuracies in the provided biography text.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
39
The slide highlights the lack of alignment between management and shareholders.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
40
Uses a direct quote from a conference call to set up a contradiction with official proxy filing text.expose_contradiction
41
Spruce Point Capital Management branding.front_matter
42
Includes a callout box highlighting the discrepancy and a table showing pro-forma adjustments.expose_contradiction
43
The slide uses a 'bridge' structure to expose accounting manipulation, specifically targeting capitalization of costs and depreciation classification.expose_contradiction
44
The slide uses a table to quantify the impact of accounting changes on revenue and EBITDA across seven quarters.expose_contradiction
45
Uses a 'before-after' style logic to contrast management's stated goals with the actual cash flow math.expose_contradiction
46
Uses a before-after comparison to highlight management's failure to meet leverage targets.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
47
The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Reality' column to adjust EBITDA downwards and Debt upwards, resulting in a higher leverage ratio (5.8x) than the company's reporexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
48
Uses financial statement excerpts to highlight a discrepancy in asset valuation and classification.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
49
The slide uses a red box to draw attention to the 'Amortization of acquisition related intangible assets' line item.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
50
Includes a direct quote from the CEO and a comparison of two financial guidance tables to highlight the D&A reduction.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
51
The slide uses a table to contrast disclosure methods (Press Release, Conf Call, etc.) against specific one-time items, with a supporting income statement snippexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
52
Uses a 'satellite industry heuristic' to derive a $225m annual recurring capex figure, contradicting management's $300-350m guidance for 2018.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
53
Includes a quote from a former CFO to support the argument that historical spending was maintenance-heavy.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
54
The slide uses a table to calculate the implied price per km2 of the NGA contract to challenge the bull case thesis.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
55
Uses a scatter plot to show price vs resolution and a line chart to show declining cost trends over time.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
56
The slide uses a screenshot of a Morgan Stanley financial model to prove that historical commercial revenue targets were missed.expose_gap
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
58
The slide uses a red arrow to emphasize the -12.7% YTD 2018 organic growth decline.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
59
Uses direct quotes from conference calls and industry reports to highlight the gap between management narrative and business reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
60
The slide uses a Q&A excerpt to frame the company's strategic review as a sign of failure, leading to the impairment thesis.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
61
Spruce Point Capital Management branding.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
62
Uses a quote from a Q1'17 conference call to establish the baseline of management's previous optimism.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
63
The slide uses arrows to indicate ownership trends (green up, red down).compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
64
The slide uses a table to contrast current analyst consensus with the author's bearish thesis, specifically highlighting the 'accounting magic' and 'legacy Canapreempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
65
Uses red arrows to visually emphasize the downward trend in estimates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
66
The slide uses a direct comparison table to dismantle the bull case point-by-point.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
67
Includes 'Spruce Pt Adjusted' row to contrast with 'Street' estimates.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms
68
The table includes specific adjustments for debt, cash, and investments, and explicitly notes the exclusion of a potential $227m Ukraine arbitration payout.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Contradictions and Criticisms