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Strong forensic-accounting argument leveraging MDA's pre-merger filings to expose intangible-asset capitalization abuse. Heavy use of pattern-matching to NCR Corp (prior Spruce Point campaign) where current CEO Lance was COO. Stake size not disclosed beyond 'short position' in standard disclaimer. Precedent-citing tactic doubles as track-record marketing (Spruce Point's prior wins). Functional institutional design — readable but not editorially polished; chart-heavy.", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "Spruce Point estimates 79% overstated vs. management $4.75/sh — adjusted EPS of $1.03", "metric": "Non-IFRS EPS overstatement" }, { "detail": "17% overstated — Spruce Point adjusted EBITDA $597.3m vs. consensus $718m", "metric": "EBITDA overstatement" }, { "detail": "5.8x credit-adjusted vs. 5.5x covenant; vs. company-claimed 4.0x", "metric": "Adjusted leverage" }, { "detail": "MDA YTD -12.7% organic decline", "metric": "Organic revenue growth" }, { "detail": "Communications segment running 2.0x vs. SSL pre-acquisition 0.74-0.95x and peer ~1.0x", "metric": "Capex / Depreciation ratio" }, { "detail": "MDA 58% in 2016 vs. peer average 19%", "metric": "Tech + In-process intangibles as % of gross intangibles" }, { "detail": "2018E $0-$50m; MDA 2012-2017 averaged just $30m/yr", "metric": "Free cash flow" }, { "detail": "0.50% of MAXR shares post-acquisition", "metric": "Insider ownership" }, { "detail": "$227m disclosed Q2 2018", "metric": "Ukraine arbitration claim" } ], "closingAsk": "Sell Maxar Technologies — Spruce Point's base case sees 45-55% downside to $20-$25/share with potential 100% downside to zero given inability to generate free cash flow.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:50:02+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 143.90222, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "Base-case downside of 45-55% to a $20-$25 share price using peer-discounted multiples on adjusted EBITDA/EPS; on free cash flow, MAXR could be worthless — full 100% downside to zero given $3.7bn credit-adjusted debt and minimal cash generation.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "management_change" ], "top3Reasons": [ "MAXR's Non-IFRS EPS inflated 79% via aggressive intangible-asset capitalization and acquisition accounting", "CEO Howard Lance has prior ties to two companies later requiring financial restatement", "Adjusted leverage of 5.8x breaches the 5.5x covenant; dividend funded by borrowing" ], "scqaSituation": "Maxar Technologies is the rebranded entity formed by Canadian satellite manufacturer MDA's 2017 acquisition of imagery provider DigitalGlobe, trading on NYSE/TSX with a $2.6bn market cap and $5.8bn enterprise value at $44/share.", "thesisSummary": "Maxar Technologies — formed by MDA's 2017 acquisition of DigitalGlobe — is the cover-up vehicle for MDA's failed 2012 levered acquisition of Space Systems Loral, taken on at the peak of a now-collapsing geostationary satellite cycle. 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With $3.7bn of credit-adjusted debt, 5.8x adjusted leverage breaching covenant, organic revenue down 12.7%, and a $227m Ukraine arbitration claim, Spruce Point sees MAXR's $0-$50m of free cash flow rendering the equity worthless on a base case, with an intermediate price target of $20-$25 (45-55% downside).", "primaryDemands": [ "CEO Howard Lance should resign", "Eliminate the dividend immediately and redirect cash to debt reduction", "Restate inflated Non-IFRS EBITDA and EPS metrics" ], "scqaResolution": "CEO Howard Lance should resign for inflating earnings and concealing his track record; Maxar must immediately eliminate its $68m dividend and direct capital toward debt reduction before the 5.5x covenant is breached.", "thesisOneLiner": "Maxar's MDA-DigitalGlobe merger masks a collapsing satellite cycle and the most aggressive accounting Spruce Point has ever seen, leaving 5.8x-levered MAXR with 100% downside risk.", "precedentsCited": [ "NCR Corp (Spruce Point 2015 short — 40% decline)", "Harris Stratex / Aviat Networks (Lance prior chairmanship requiring restatement)", "Change Healthcare Holdings (Lance prior chairmanship)", "Intertain (Spruce Point Canadian short — 42% decline)", "TSO3 (Spruce Point Canadian short — 81% decline)", "Just Energy (Spruce Point Canadian short — 51% decline)" ], "scqaComplication": "MDA was already strained by its 2012 levered acquisition of Space Systems Loral at the satellite cycle peak; 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"attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:02:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb96-7553-b1d8-f1e745bd1936", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "metric", "text": "Accounts Receivable Aging: $70.4", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": 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process of securing external project financing to fund their respective satellite construction contracts signed with the Company. 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In accordance with the terms of the contract, the customer elected to convert certain milestone payment obligations into interest bearing notes receivable with extended payment terms\"", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:58.063+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "360b190f-662f-4021-bdc5-ddbbee18a81b", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.18 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "MDA discloses in its Annual Report the aging of receivables. We observe a worrisome rise in accounts past due by 90 days as of its last disclosure on Dec 31, 2016 prior to announcing the DigitalGlobe deal Feb 2017. 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As we can see in the table below, during that period, DGI had ~$200m per annum in capex. If that number is \"low\" then our recurring capex number looks very reasonable, if not perhaps even conservative. For what is now the Space Systems division, we can take the old MDA as a proxy, and it spent on average ~$90m of capex per annum over the past 4 years. Given that most of the growth in Space Systems is coming from new projects, such as small satellites, new defense programs, etc - for which Maxar will have to invest in new resources, we think it prudent to assume that Space Systems recurring capex remains similar to current levels. 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While the Company has kept information regarding Legion at a minimum (management has not disclosed the total number of satellites, or how much the satellites cost, etc), we were still able to deduce a similar recurring capex calculation with the help of satellite imaging industry experts. We believe to replace all 4 WorldViews, and deliver the functionality that Maxar is looking for, it will need to launch at least 25 satellites (Legion satellites are much smaller), which would cost $80-$100m per satellite. 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pricing: $36", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Metric", "slug": "metric", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f923-73bf-8081-d0b1a8c5264d", "version": 1, "description": "Big-number or KPI value." }, "tool": { "name": "Quantification", "slug": "quantification", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-47ab-72ce-a079-aab1f5299e88", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Translating a claim into numbers, charts, or tables.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": "primary", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:02:21+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb96-7553-b1da-d1e5ce0d85b9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.17 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "WorldViews 1-3 offer resolutions of about 30-50 cm in black and white and about 124-164 cm in color. Many bulls believe that this price is \"low\" without offering much comparable data to justify their view. So we investigated through our research network to source current market pricing for satellite imaging at different resolutions. Below is the summary and suggests that at resolutions of around 50 cm, the price should be about $25/km²:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:53.412+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "249e0231-1355-4894-a431-7397b1c23277", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.32, "w": 0.92, "x": 0.04, "y": 0.29 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "However, this is a price for a \"useful image\" – say a military base in Syria is useful to the U.S. government, while a picture of farmland in North Dakota is not useful. But most of the data that DGI captures in a given year is not useful. Working further within our network, we were told that on average only 3-4% of images that observation satellites collect are \"useful\". Furthermore, as we can see in the below chart from NSR, there is a close to 9x difference between priority images (as in \"we need to know that is happening at a given Syrian military base right now\") and archive (\"we want to know what happened in the Syrian base last month\"). While we don't have split for NGA's EnhancedView SLA between priority and archive, we believe a 50/50 split is a good rule of thumb. Adjusting for these factors, we see that DGI is charging $337 million / (622 mn km2 * 3% * 50%) = $36 per useful image, close to 50% premium to market rates. In addition, our industry research suggests that for deals such as DGI's with NGA, bulk discounts of around 75% are the norm, which makes DGI look even more expensive. Thus, we think that with the next round of negotiations, the NGA seems more likely to want a price discount rather than accept a price increase. Furthermore, we can also see in the NSR chart that the prices per pixels have been going down and the industry expects them to continue going down - not up. 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It will obviously have lower revenue that if we're doing it totally ourselves, but this is going to be a large fixed price pursuit...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:42:53.751+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "13caae12-fb76-4d59-9c2a-94a959a9d7d2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "\"This consortium is so named because we are equal partners with Thales on this project... So we expect it to be very much a 50-50 partnership.\" — CEO Lance, Q2 2018 Conference Call. \"Industry officials familiar with Telesat's LEO bidding process have said the company is all but certain to request an equity investment on the part of its major suppliers\" — Space Intel.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:02:22+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd952-fb96-7553-b1db-472273af3409", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.4, "x": 0.05, "y": 0.92 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "Source: Maxar consortium press release, July 30, 2018; Telesat rebuttal press release announcement about Airbus, Aug 1, 2018; Space Intel report article, Aug 3, 2018", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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And on the GEO side, you talked about a strategic alternative process. How should we think about the timing for that, Howard? : It's actively in process now. It has been for a while. ... 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