Kerrisdale Capital · research-note
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)
45 pages · 0 arc beats · 0 loops
Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR)
Kerrisdale Capital · 2025-08 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 0 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
1 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 45 total
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Whole deck 45 slides 100% 45/45 slides 100% 45/45 slides · 289 hits — 0/45 slides
22.2% 10/45 slides · 13 hits 40% 18/45 slides — 0/45 slides
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Slide inventory
45 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The slide serves as a high-level investment thesis summary for a short report.summarize
03
This is a short-seller research note criticizing Aurora Innovation's operational progress and business model viability.diagnose_problem
04
The slide argues that Aurora's scaling challenges are fundamental to its ODD-based approach, contrasting it with Waymo's denser urban model.name_villain
05
This is a research note page from a short-seller report criticizing Aurora Innovation's business model and TAM claims.name_villain
06
The slide uses a narrative structure to expose contradictions in Aurora's business model, specifically regarding cost, infrastructure, and partner alignment.expose_contradiction
07
The slide provides a financial snapshot of Aurora Innovation and transitions into a technical history of autonomous vehicle software stacks.analyze_data
08
The slide uses a process diagram to illustrate the flow from sensors to actuators in autonomous vehicles.establish_context
09
This is a text-heavy research note page from Kerrisdale Capital. It critiques the 'modular-architecture' paradigm used by companies like Waymo.diagnose_problem
10
Includes a quote from an industry expert regarding the nature of autonomous driving development.analyze_data
11
The slide uses a quote from Aurora's CEO to frame their strategy as a 'quagmire' compared to the industry trend toward end-to-end models.name_villain
12
The slide discusses the 'alignment challenge' in autonomous driving and provides a chronological breakdown of Waymo's city-by-city rollout.summarize
13
The text highlights discrepancies between Aurora's public claims and actual testing/deployment footprint in Texas.diagnose_problem
14
The slide uses a map to contextualize Aurora's operational footprint in Texas, supporting a thesis about the transferability of autonomous driving capabilities illustrate_case
15
The slide uses a narrative structure to contrast Aurora's 'self-similarity' highway argument with the slow pace of actual lane expansion.expose_contradiction
16
The map illustrates the limited scope of Aurora's 'Driverless Operations' relative to the total US interstate system.diagnose_problem
17
Includes a quote from a former Aurora engineer regarding the complexity of mapping warehouse endpoints.preempt_rebuttal
18
This is a text-heavy research note slide from Kerrisdale Capital, acting as a rebuttal to Aurora's management claims.preempt_rebuttal
19
The slide uses a map to highlight the limited operational area of Aurora's trucks, contrasting this with the company's broader claims.name_villain
20
Includes a quoted excerpt from Sterling Anderson (Aurora Investor Day 2024) followed by a critical analysis of the company's partnership strategy.name_villain
21
The slide provides context for a critique of Aurora's cost-saving projections by comparing industry-wide ATRI data against specific dry van truck estimates.analyze_data
22
The slide uses a cost-comparison table to challenge Aurora's economic assumptions, specifically regarding the 'first and last mile' costs.compare_peers
23
The chart shows a 12-year range of the Intermodal Savings Index with specific lines for 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.analyze_data
24
Includes detailed footnotes explaining the assumptions behind the autonomous trucking constraints (CVSA inspections and terminal queuing).compare_peers
25
The chart illustrates the impact of HOS (Hours of Service) limits on OTR trucking efficiency, showing 'kinks' at 750-mile intervals.compare_peers
26
Includes a footnote detailing the factors influencing drayage costs (wait times, terminal fees).analyze_data
27
The table demonstrates that autonomous trucking struggles to compete with manned OTR trucking due to the fixed $1000 drayage cost, especially on shorter routes.compare_peers
28
The chart illustrates the cost crossover point between manned and autonomous delivery models.analyze_data
29
The chart shows a dual-axis representation of autonomous fee per mile vs. trip length and autonomous driver proportion of total cost.analyze_data
30
The slide uses a bottom-up calculation to challenge Aurora's TAM claims by applying load-weight assumptions to FHWA ton-mile data.size_opportunity
31
Includes a direct quote from Aurora CEO Chris Urmson regarding hardware costs.name_villain
32
The slide uses a narrative structure to dismantle the company's claims about hardware costs and the economic viability of their per-mile fee model.expose_contradiction
33
The slide uses anecdotal evidence from industry executives (Continental, PACCAR) to challenge Aurora's business model and technical readiness.analyze_data
34
The slide uses quotes from industry executives to debunk the idea that autonomous trucks will be cost-neutral or cheaper.expose_contradiction
35
The slide uses a transcript excerpt to argue that autonomous trucking requires significant hardware redundancy and maintenance infrastructure, contradicting theexpose_contradiction
36
This is a text-heavy research note page from Kerrisdale Capital. It uses a logical, argumentative structure to dismantle specific claims made by Aurora.preempt_rebuttal
37
The slide uses a narrative structure to contrast Aurora's past stated goals with current operational realities and financial requirements.expose_contradiction
38
The slide uses a narrative-heavy structure to debunk Aurora's operational and financial projections.preempt_rebuttal
39
The slide uses map-based evidence to argue that Aurora's terminals are strategically located near major FedEx hubs, despite Aurora's stated focus on long-haul.illustrate_case
40
This slide is part of a short-seller research report by Kerrisdale Capital, focusing on exposing flaws in Aurora's economic assumptions.name_villain
41
This is a research note page from Kerrisdale Capital, focusing on the competitive landscape and economic viability of Aurora's autonomous trucking strategy.diagnose_problem
42
This slide serves as a bearish argument against Aurora's valuation by comparing it to leaner competitors and questioning the total addressable market size.compare_peers