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with embedded tables and a handful of charts, not a slide deck. Cover page opens with bold thesis statement and disclaimer of short position. Strong analytical rigor: builds case from first principles (technology limits → operational design domain → hub-and-spoke necessity → drayage economics → terminal capex → OEM capture). Quotes Aurora CEO Chris Urmson's blog post and Sterling Anderson's investor day remarks to highlight contradictions between Aurora's pitch and the underlying economics. No single named villain — critique is structural rather than personal. No explicit price target but implies sub-$1bn cap (>90% downside from $13bn). Stake percentage not disclosed (typical for short-sellers — only that they hold short positions).", "kpisCited": [ { "detail": "$12.87bn fully diluted, $11.56bn enterprise value at $6.45/share", "metric": "Market capitalization" }, { "detail": "TTM operating loss of $836mm; FY24 loss of $786mm", "metric": "Operating loss" }, { "detail": "~17bn miles for autonomous trucking, vs. Aurora's 200bn-mile claim — order of magnitude lower", "metric": "True TAM" }, { "detail": "~$8.5-10bn at $0.50/mile pricing — smaller than Aurora's $13bn market cap", "metric": "Implied entire-market value" }, { "detail": "$0.65-0.85/mile per management; Kerrisdale estimates true ceiling of $0.35-0.60/mile", "metric": "Aurora DaaS pricing guidance" }, { "detail": "~$1,000 per trip / $500 per side, vs. Aurora's $100/side assumption in fine print", "metric": "Drayage cost" }, { "detail": "OEM partners expect ~50% higher cost than current Class 8 trucks; sensor suite adds ~$0.15/mile", "metric": "Autonomous truck cost premium" }, { "detail": "40-80 terminals required for 2028 guidance, costing billions; only 2 small terminals built so far in Houston/Dallas", "metric": "Terminal build-out" }, { "detail": "200 miles Dallas-Houston after 5+ years; vs. company guidance of 80% of sunbelt by 2026", "metric": "Highway deployment progress" }, { "detail": "ATRI: $2.26/mile in 2024; driver wages $0.80 + benefits $0.20", "metric": "Manned trucking total cost" } ], "closingAsk": "Short AUR: the limits of autonomous trucking will become clear and Aurora will trade in the sub-$1 billion small-cap range as the air comes out of the tires of autonomous hype.", "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 20:39:39+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": 115.98896, "promptVersion": null }, "scqaReward": "True TAM is ~17bn miles at ~$0.50/mile, implying a $10bn entire market split with OEMs and terminals, leaving Aurora trading sub-$1bn small-cap as autonomous hype deflates.", "thesisTypes": [ "fraud_exposure", "undervaluation" ], "top3Reasons": [ "Aurora's modular AI driver can only enable hub-and-spoke, not the point-to-point freight Aurora pitches", "Drayage and terminal costs make hub-and-spoke autonomous trucking uneconomic versus direct manned trucks", "True TAM is ~$10bn — smaller than Aurora's $13bn market cap — and OEMs will capture most of the profit pool" ], "scqaSituation": "Aurora Innovation is a $13bn market-cap autonomous trucking company promising a driverless DaaS future serving a 200 billion-mile combination-truck TAM at $0.65-0.85 per mile.", "thesisSummary": "Kerrisdale is short Aurora Innovation, arguing the autonomous trucking company will never become a viable commercial operation. Aurora's modular AI driver has no path to mastering suburban roads, forcing it into a hub-and-spoke model where drayage and terminal logistics make autonomous trucking structurally inferior to direct manned trucking on routes under 1,500 miles. The true addressable market is roughly 17 billion miles — an order of magnitude below Aurora's 200 billion-mile TAM claim — implying an entire market of just $10 billion versus Aurora's $13 billion market cap. Trucks will cost 50% more than legacy Class 8s, terminals require billions in capex no one is funding, and OEM partners like Volvo, PACCAR, and Daimler-Torc plan to capture most of the economics. 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INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS...3\nII. A SHORT HISTORY OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING...7\nIII. THE LIMITS OF THE AURORA DRIVER...11\nIV. THE ECONOMICS OF AURORA'S AUTONOMOUS BUSINESS MODEL ARE HOPELESS...20\nV. 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Drayage is time-consuming and expensive, which is widely understood in the intermodal shipping business. As we detail in this report, shipping to and from a terminal takes a few hours and requires building in time-buffers to meet terminal scheduling procedures. Those procedures, including delineating cutoff times and facilitating truck turnaround, also increase the duration of the trip. In addition, a supposedly key advantage of autonomous trucking – not being subject to human hours-of-service restrictions – will go to waste about half the time simply due to the business hours of drayage operators and shippers/customers, which don't operate 24/7. We therefore expect that on trips under 1500 miles, autonomous trucking will provide no time-to-customer advantage over manned trucking. The multiple trailer-transfer points also add potential failure nodes in the process, reducing overall reliability.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:30.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "289af1f1-f0b8-4f0f-8d39-00d6113be190", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Drayage also adds a significant cost to the shipping process, which we estimate – based on the disclosures of major first/last mile operators, publicly available price quotes, and conversations with logistics consultants – at about $1000 in total per trip, or about $500 each for the first and last mile. Aurora tries to fudge the significance of drayage costs by assuming a price tag of $100/side and relegating the assumption to the fine print in the footnotes of their investor presentations. But the reality is that drayage costs drastically reduce the driver savings that autonomous trucking is meant to enable. The cost of drayage, combined with the absence of improved service-times and increased logistical complexity, will mean that autonomous trucking will be structurally inferior to direct manned trucking on any routes under 1500 miles. It also puts a ceiling on the price that Aurora will be able to charge for the Aurora Driver at about $0.35-0.60/mile, depending on the distance covered in the trip, which is a lot lower than the $0.65-0.85 that Aurora has guided to.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:30.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "52cfd792-dcf5-4cea-8d11-a7241cd79e86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.61 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Aurora’s TAM estimate is delusional. While Aurora often repeats that its TAM is the 200 billion miles driven by “combination trucks” – a statistic from the Federal Highway Administration – the Bureau of Transportation Statistics from which the FHA gets this data estimates that the total mileage of Class 8 trucks on trips over 500 miles is approximately 35 billion. This is critical because even Aurora admits that self-driving trucks aren’t much of an improvement over manned trucking on one-day trips, so it’s unclear why the company keeps repeating pollyannish TAM numbers when real statistics are readily available. We further estimate that fewer than half of those 35 billion miles are on trips over 1500 miles. In other words, the true TAM for autonomous trucking is about 17 billion miles – an order of magnitude lower than Aurora’s claims.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:30.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "8005917d-75c6-44c6-a0b8-b3c390cf3d76", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.9 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The autonomous trucks are going to cost a lot more than regular trucks, and require the construction of an extensive infrastructure to support their use. Besides a fairly limited", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:30.378+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c6cf8b41-9d30-4c3b-adfc-1955f7c629c6", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.09, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.8 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At the approximate $0.50/mile we believe is the maximum that Aurora would be able to charge for the software-based driver, that amounts to just about $8.5 billion for the entire market. Even if the number is slightly higher than that, there’s simply not a large enough market for autonomous trucking to justify either Aurora’s market capitalization of $13 billion or any major investment in autonomous trucking that’s going to rely on a hub-and-spoke structure. 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Aurora has so far built two small terminals in Houston and Dallas, respectively, and set aside land for two more right outside Fort Worth and El Paso. But to come anywhere close to its own 2028 guidance, 40-80 terminals are needed, and the cost will run into the billions of dollars.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.159+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6c975797-1c38-40c9-b69a-ae5402e369ab", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.662 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Aurora is stuck. The technology to enable true point-to-point autonomous freight simply doesn't exist, and if it ever will, it's going to be developed by one of Aurora's growing set of competitors who are attacking the autonomous driving problem in a completely different (but as yet unsuccessful) way.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.159+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "ac9be081-c584-45db-9633-b91fe9a75a7f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.481 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We understand that in the quest to achieve the highest possible valuation, Aurora wants to just provide the software and let everyone else do the dirty work of actually building physical equipment and infrastructure. But inevitably, that's going to mean that Aurora's OEM partners and terminal operators are going to extract a chunk of the economics that Aurora will try to claim for itself.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.159+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "b00ad9bf-c892-40eb-8e55-2735ad8b25b8", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.094 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "market opportunity, Aurora has also misled investors about the increased cost structure of an autonomous truck ecosystem. Based on discussions with employees at Aurora's own OEM partners – Volvo and PACCAR – the cost of the truck will be about 50% higher than the current average price of a Class 8 truck. The increased cost of redundant vehicle systems plus the autonomy-enabling sensor suite would consume as much as $0.15 / mile, based on our estimates, of the $0.50 / mile that Aurora could hope to charge for its service, further reducing the exploitable market size.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.159+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c192dedf-dbb4-4e14-976e-0f9056d896a2", "parentComponentId": 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This will descend into an unsustainable quagmire of code.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:29.863+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1285cd68-fe4f-4642-a1e6-704f4d26b7a5", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Those naively attempting to solve self-driving using a pure end-to-end system will find themselves bogged down in a game of whack-a-mole, much like the folks delivering large language models have. — Chris Urmson, Aurora co-founder and CEO", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:28:15+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8551-b24e72e916b2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.04, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.868 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "2 We recommend listening to Drago's discussion about end-to-end versus modular approaches and the ability/necessity of some sort of hybrid methodology at this point in the interview.", "attrs": { "numbered": true }, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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The driving capability is dramatically transferable...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:30.118+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "e3498ac6-efc8-4706-8a1d-8966e59de913", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "So the question is how long does it take to learn a new market. The driving capability is dramatically transferable...What we do see on Dallas-El Paso is there's just a lot more construction than there is on Dallas-Houston and so that's a capability we've been developing. But once we have that capability in place, that looks an awful lot like a El Paso to Phoenix, for example, the same kind of driving conditions. We're not seeing anything fundamentally different about that. And that's part of the thesis and why we think trucking is a really great place to start is because every bit of freeway looks the same, right? 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"kind": "paragraph", "text": "In its most recent investor presentation, Aurora displayed the map below showing “illustrative lane expansion through 2026.” It's just not believable that the small 450-mile stretch (highlighted in a red box) is taking about a full year to “unlock” and that the rest of the highlighted lanes will somehow magically enter Aurora's ODD within the next year and a half.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", 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But if scaling the Aurora Driver from the 200 mile Dallas-Houston Lane to the 600-mile Fort Worth-El Paso lane was so effortless, why, after 3.5 years of testing was the system not deployed on this lane simultaneously with the Dallas-Houston deployment? Even if deployment happens tomorrow, the fact that it's taken so long, along with Aurora's total absence on other major highway routes in Texas, suggests that scalability is much harder than Aurora lets on.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "40be1adf-33e3-4db4-90a4-497ba032da7c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.19 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This is particularly comical given how many miles of road Waymo has mastered since March 2022 (15,000) compared to the Aurora Driver (200). Two years later at its March 2024 Investor Day, Aurora was boasting again about the ease of scalability:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "78744a5a-3edd-4c45-9c35-221a5220cf86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "is in Arizona and in Minneapolis, right? And so once we crack that, we expect this business to scale operationally, whereas we look at the robotaxi businesses that are working in deep urban environments, we see that much more as a long-term technology slog to get through. And so we just see this as a much more exciting scalable business in the near term.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "f77c466e-2142-4d29-9f08-79906ec6cb6a", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.16, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.56 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As for the expansion of the lane from El Paso to Phoenix, Aurora said in this past October's earnings call that it had just completed mapping the 450-mile route in two weeks, that the Aurora Driver “navigated a vast majority of the lane autonomously in its first-round trip,” and that it expected to begin a pilot in the first half of 2025. In May they confirmed the pilot began in April. The length of time it takes to expand an already existing route by just 450 miles onto a highway that Aurora says is highly similar to what its Driver is already familiar with will be a significant test of Aurora's claims regarding scalability. It should be a slam dunk, but if five years into the system's development it takes a full year to add 450 “self-similar” miles to the Aurora Driver's ODD, the road ahead is going to be excruciating.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "fae56884-4fb8-44cf-82b8-85a87eea3955", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now, the self-similarity of this [highway driving] and the R&D investments we make have allowed us to bring online new lanes in a much more rapid way. And to give you a specific example of this, Dallas to Houston, which we started operating on first, when we went to expand that to Fort Worth-El Paso, a lane of approximately 3x the size in terms of length or mileage. That required bringing online only two new capabilities, driving on grades with the engine brake and passing through inland border patrol crossings. That was it.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.294+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "4eb6b3a8-f624-43ed-b7c1-e8db6814ea16", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "Now, the self-similarity of this [highway driving] and the R&D investments we make have allowed us to bring online new lanes in a much more rapid way. And to give you a specific example of this, Dallas to Houston, which we started operating on first, when we went to expand that to Fort Worth-El Paso, a lane of approximately 3x the size in terms of length or mileage. That required bringing online only two new capabilities, driving on grades with the engine brake and passing through inland border patrol crossings. That was it. — Aurora Innovation Management", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-23 01:18:10+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-70f2-7016-81cc-1c73081f8617", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 16, "type": "tension", "title": "The map 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The engineering maintenance is not cost-prohibitive because geographic density makes it easier to accomplish.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.472+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "6089413b-d74f-4344-9519-5a29489753bb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.08, "w": 0.86, "x": 0.07, "y": 0.52 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The FHA records that there are about 50,000 miles of 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"canonId": "019de52d-1225-7368-af32-6381fddabdb3", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "preempt_rebuttal", "functionCanon": { "name": "Preempt rebuttal", "slug": "preempt_rebuttal", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-18ab-7479-9a7e-820a2f03586a", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "dense", "densityScore": 60, "componentCount": 6, "textChars": 3326, "nDataPoints": 2, "notes": "Includes a quote from a former Aurora engineer regarding the complexity of mapping warehouse endpoints.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph", "quote_block", "footnote" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "seconds": 4.645, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d/17", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d#slide-17", "deckJson": 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Aurora knows this and there are basically two ways that it's tried to finesse this problem with investors. The first is to promote autonomous trucking as a hub-to-hub service. The idea here is that autonomous trucking terminals will be built across the country at strategic locations that are right off the highway (thus easier to map, engineer, and maintain). Aurora-driven autonomous trucks would haul goods between terminals while shippers and customers would use the terminals as hubs for shipping or pickup, respectively. We address the economic feasibility of hub-to-hub autonomous trucking in the next section and conclude that the market is small, the revenue potential is limited, and the costs are significant (for example, who's going to build the terminals? Aurora doesn't know just as long as it's not them). In short, it can work, but the entire market is not much bigger than Aurora's current market capitalization and can't possibly justify the investment.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "10770d93-3adf-4c1f-bf24-22e4aae78392", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "autonomous vehicles through the area and the rapid feedback they provide. Waymo has now done that in 6 different locations covering a total of about 600sqm.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1ec4c730-ba7c-4171-9a1a-1005e6f297eb", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.755 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Aside from the terminal-to-terminal service, Aurora says it “plan[s] to unlock customer endpoints to augment our terminal footprint.” According to the company\n\nWe're putting in place today the pieces, particularly with some of our larger customers that have natural consolidation points already in the network, be that a large sortation", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "9b2021b7-11f3-4729-a792-9a0cb7044842", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.145 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Aurora doesn't have this option because shippers and customers aren't geographically concentrated. While the geographic distribution of points defined as “rideshare destinations” is extremely dense, the distribution of warehouses and other potential shipping-customer endpoints is not. These facilities tend to be sprawled over large areas outside cities. “Unlocking” Class 8 truck destinations and incorporating the Aurora Driver ODD would mean mapping, testing, and maintaining hundreds of thousands of miles of road, which is totally unrealistic using the current standard of autonomous software architecture.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d165feca-0fed-45c1-a227-5492a7fd6c39", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.72, "x": 0.168, "y": 0.305 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "There's 80,000 warehouses or potential customer endpoints in Dallas, or “logistics facilities” that truckloads could start and stop at. There's 80,000 alone in Dallas...even if we write off half of those as just irrelevant or the wrong business or whatever...That's 40,000. Imagine doing a rules-based approach [i.e., modular architecture] and starting to unlock all those different locations...there's all these routes and different turns and capabilities that you need to individually look at, some engineer needs to look at and say, okay, this is how the truck should handle it. This is how it currently is handling it. Let me tweak this, let me add a rule here. Every time this light is yellow, don't push it. Or whatever the rule is...then, you gotta sort of manage them over time. Like, “does anything change here with this traffic light or this capability or this situation?” and monitor performance.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:31.986+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1ed14ea0-2dd5-4961-b7ed-c1d2b1c13e53", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.77, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.865 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "3 While the total highway road length might be 70,000 miles, adding major arterial roads in both rural and urban areas amounts to an incremental 155,000 miles according to the FHA, and it gets exponentially longer as you move from major arterial roadways to more extended parts of the road network.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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This sounds great in theory, but in practice the proportion of trucking mileage that fits these criteria is small. Large potential customers whose business is trucking – like Werner, Hirschbach, and Schneider, all of whom have (or had in the case of Schneider) relationships with Aurora and other autonomous trucking companies – are in the business of shipping direct for their fragmented and geographically dispersed customer base.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:35.477+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "2624706d-12e2-4e1c-a5d4-8328144f545c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.18, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.54 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "It's hard to overstate how disingenuous this is. To get an idea, on the next page is a map of the Houston terminal, and you can easily see that the terminal is less than half a mile away from the highway exit and requires one turn and a single arterial road to be traversed between the highway and the terminal. To insinuate that this somehow shows that Aurora's Driver regularly drives through industrial urban-type settings is just ridiculous. What makes it even more misleading is that the other 3 Aurora terminals – in Palmer (south of Dallas), Aledo (west of Fort Worth), and El Paso – are even closer to the highway than the one in Houston, and much more remote (none of them are actually in the cities which Aurora labels them as, except for the Houston terminal).", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:35.477+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "5ca70bd6-7f53-426a-a583-1b4a957f3f94", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "facility, a big distribution center, their own terminals where they're doing a lot of their operations out of, to allow our trucks to drive and ultimately their trucks to drive directly to their location...To give you an example of how complex is this one, when we drive to Houston today, our trucks drive right past the entrance to one such location. We're already driving to many of these regions. We expect that that rapid incremental capability, the ability to bring that online, will allow an increased growth in our network. It'll allow us to make our network more capillary, augment our terminal coverage, and ultimately increase the value of our product to our customers...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:35.477+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "af02f5ed-8f04-4a81-969f-31c28d1c7c86", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.05, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.4 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Finally, we would note that on its earnings calls, Aurora's management sometimes teases the implication that its Aurora Driver will be easily extendable to non-highway trips. A great example was at last year's investor day:", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:35.477+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d03273ba-3fbf-46a1-9555-5f6d3e99fbd7", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.06, "w": 0.66, "x": 0.17, "y": 0.46 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "I say road network...and not highway network only, because our trucks do drive off highway. They drive through industrial urban type settings. They drive on surface streets to get to, for instance, our terminal in Houston.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:35.477+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "351db8af-1889-4185-815b-ac160037d29f", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "I say road network...and not highway network only, because our trucks do drive off highway. 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That's the DaaS [driver as a service] market opportunity...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Testimonial", "slug": "testimonial", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fc21-71b6-9ac3-8266a64945e8", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "testimonial", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.843+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "60f56126-5db4-466a-8a93-c6eafdc15499", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "That's the DaaS [driver as a service] market opportunity that we are going to go after and also deliver value for our customers... 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Drayage is just a specific case of local shipping via truck... 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Beyond 1500 miles is where autonomous trucking might legitimately provide a superior service.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.966+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cef30216-a1bd-4d8e-ab1a-7812a0ed9984", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.441 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Assuming a gross margin percentage in the 10-14% range and a cost per mile of rail of about $1, we estimate that Hunt's cost of drayage per load has been over $900 over the last 3 years, or more than $450/side.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.966+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "d7d5ad71-17df-4012-a143-c27481cd6614", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.786 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "It's worth noting that the cost of drayage is only very loosely related to the distance covered... 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of the standard 53-foot dry-van truck trailer... is 22 tons, and we estimate that the average load is at least 15 tons. 390 billion ton-miles of travel at an average of 15 tons per trip implies a total of 26 billion miles.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.437+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "65e820bd-d372-4dd5-8bf6-8f2308463674", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.15, "w": 0.78, 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The Federal Highway Administration's Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) is a database tool...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:33.437+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "cbda91c7-1dab-4727-b783-5923e19fc944", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "A major reason for this is that for most shipments, trucking companies have the option of paying for team trucking... 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Using the universal estimate of a lifespan of about 750,000 miles and the BTS estimate of approximately 95,000 miles driven annually per long-haul truck, the typical truck lasts just under 8 years. Assuming a high single digit interest rate on a lease, that comes out to about $0.37-0.4/mile driven, which is right around the ATRI estimate of $0.39 for lease expense per mile.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.154+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "210669fe-9ecc-4441-b4e6-67eca8550443", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.21 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "At about $0.50/mile, the entire addressable market for autonomous trucking in a hub-and-spoke system is somewhere between $8-13 billion, which is less than Aurora's current market capitalization of $13 billion. The prize here is just not that big, and that's before we consider the increased system costs of autonomous trucking.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.154+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "555648e6-8f09-437f-9dfc-52abd2615ba2", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "another source for trucking data - the Bureau of Transportation Statistics - estimates the total annual mileage of Class 8 trucks on trip over 500 miles is 37 billion. Based on the FAF splits, about 40% of those miles would be on trips over 1500 miles, which would make the Class 8 TAM closer to 15 billion. No matter which way you slice the numbers, the addressable market for Aurora is a whole lot less than 200 billion miles.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.154+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "77f71140-bfb6-4fa7-b364-dd769e64e23e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.21, "w": 0.73, "x": 0.16, "y": 0.62 }, "kind": "quote", "text": "So cost of the truck. So, one, our OEM and partners are going to decide that. But the way to think about it is there's minimal kind of new hardware components in there, right? And the driver parts, the things that you would think of as the expensive parts, are part of that Hardware as a Service. So, they're on the Aurora side of this, and our customers will pay us for that over time on a per mile basis. So, the base truck, we expect to be roughly in line with what it costs to buy a truck today. And I would expect that our partners, again over time, as this becomes more broadly adopted, there's an opportunity to depopulate some of the content in the truck and create an even better offering from our OEM partners to their customers.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Pull quote", "slug": "pull-quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fbf9-76fe-97e1-a0b7540445c9", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "pull-quote", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.154+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c154a4fa-b423-4481-9598-32b963ee855e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "So cost of the truck. So, one, our OEM and partners are going to decide that. But the way to think about it is there's minimal kind of new hardware components in there, right? And the driver parts, the things that you would think of as the expensive parts, are part of that Hardware as a Service. So, they're on the Aurora side of this, and our customers will pay us for that over time on a per mile basis. So, the base truck, we expect to be roughly in line with what it costs to buy a truck today. And I would expect that our partners, again over time, as this becomes more broadly adopted, there's an opportunity to depopulate some of the content in the truck and create an even better offering from our OEM partners to their customers. — Chris Urmson, Aurora Innovation CEO", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:28:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8553-6002ac26e77e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.07, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.85 }, "kind": "source-note", "text": "11 PACCAR, the second largest class 8 OEM in the US and the larger of Aurora's two OEM partners, discloses an average interest rate of a bit over 7% for its loan book, which is comprised of financing buyers of its trucks. That portfolio is composed of loans made over the last several years, with newer loans at close to a 10% interest rate.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Source note", "slug": "source-note", "status": "active", "canonId": "23484952-494b-4a5e-b1ad-550d0d70e948", "version": 1, "description": "Attribution / source / caveat placed at the slide footer. 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Daimler Benz, the largest truck manufacturer in North America with a greater than 40% market share, is the most significant case in point...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:39.73+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "31da1c7e-d8f7-4c62-aea7-7772733b3d0c", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.2, "w": 0.81, "x": 0.095, "y": 0.26 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "One way to think about this market is that 20 billion autonomous miles save about $20 billion in driver costs but necessitate the construction of an elaborate hub-and-spoke trucking ecosystem. Of that $20 billion, about a quarter is the reliability/logistics discount...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:39.73+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "34aa3350-1a9c-4803-b5fa-87efee665556", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.12, "w": 0.81, "x": 0.095, "y": 0.13 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "We don't think there's any chance that Aurora's vision for autonomous trucking will be implemented. There are just too many holes in it. The “dramatically transferrable” driving capability on the highway hasn't been so easy to transfer...", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:39.73+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "c0031738-9420-48ae-9090-b806454df5f3", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": null, "kind": "quote", "text": "“not just writing the code to drive the truck.” — Torc Solutions description", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Quote", "slug": "quote", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8fb-751e-8bc6-d58e2d59562a", "version": 1, "description": "Pull quote or testimonial." }, "tool": { "name": "Authority citation", "slug": "authority-citation", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-49ae-7557-89ad-3fca70469b45", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Quoting an authority figure, study, or precedent to lend weight.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:28:18+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8554-1cadb89f1706", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.03, "w": 0.45, "x": 0.095, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "title", "text": "V. Where Does Aurora Go From Here?", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Title", "slug": "title", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f7dd-76d9-b848-b1f12bd85cf4", "version": 1, "description": "Slide title or headline." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Headline", "slug": "headline", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fae1-7463-9a7c-d60668eced0d", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "headline", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:39.73+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "1f2d5d60-a998-4fe0-b9f0-62036bc6d7f2", "parentComponentId": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [], "loops": [], "locked": true }, { "page": 42, "type": "setup", "title": "This slide serves as a bearish argument against Aurora's valuation by comparing it to leaner competitors and questioning the total addressable market size.", "function": "compare_peers", "rawType": "competitive_analysis", "block": null, "metadata": { "slideType": "competitive_analysis", "slideTypeCanon": { "name": "Competitive analysis", "slug": "competitive_analysis", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-093e-776b-94c6-c1573f5f1a31", "version": 1, "description": null }, "function": "compare_peers", "functionCanon": { "name": "Compare peers", "slug": "compare_peers", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52d-1453-72ba-a367-9ba3d34c1630", "version": 1, "description": null }, "density": "balanced", "densityScore": 43, "componentCount": 3, "textChars": 1919, "nDataPoints": 4, "notes": "This slide serves as a bearish argument against Aurora's valuation by comparing it to leaner competitors and questioning the total addressable market size.", "elementsJson": [ "paragraph" ], "confidence": 0.9, "extraction": { "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.513+00", "seconds": 2.614, "promptVersion": "v2-canon-conditioned" } }, "links": { "slide": "/slides/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d/42", "deck": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d", "deckAnchor": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d#slide-42", "deckJson": "/decks/019dd923-622c-750b-8b98-455ec9c0494d.json" }, "components": [ { "bbox": null, "kind": "callout", "text": "That's where we expect Aurora to trade, and where we believe it will as the limits on autonomous trucking become clear and the air comes out of the tires of autonomous hype.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Callout", "slug": "callout", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-f8d3-761a-8953-7d37080de5e2", "version": 1, "description": "Highlighted callout box." }, "tool": { "name": "Visual emphasis", "slug": "visual-emphasis", "status": "active", "bestFor": null, "canonId": "019dd9e1-474b-736b-a8eb-a794dd88241c", "version": 1, "bodyDocId": null, "description": "Drawing the eye to one element above the rest of the slide.", "familyLabel": null }, "subkind": null, "framework": null }, "subkind": null, "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-04-22 23:28:19+00", "model": "unknown-legacy", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "019dd953-2040-777a-8554-2f7be99591e9", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.35, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.35 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The picture that emerges from the above is a competitive landscape in which several different autonomous software companies and OEMs are competing for what is, in our view, a very narrow long-haul hub-and-spoke freight market. While Aurora is ahead from a software perspective, it's not that far ahead and it's been scaling slowly. We believe it's only a matter of time before other competitors join the fray. In that context, Aurora is just one company vying for the software portion of what we estimate to be a $10 billion market comprised of software, hardware, and logistics services. Even if it were the only company, the typical valuation of a company like that is in the sub-$1 billion small cap range. That's where we expect Aurora to trade, and where we believe it will as the limits on autonomous trucking become clear and the air comes out of the tires of autonomous hype.", "attrs": null, "canon": { "kind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "5f2affc0-941d-4d07-959d-4bfc1930cea4", "version": 1, "description": "Single prose block in the body of a slide." }, "tool": null, "subkind": { "name": "Paragraph", "slug": "paragraph", "status": "active", "canonId": "019de52c-fb80-75af-aa5c-a7a4bfac2433", "version": 1, "description": null }, "framework": null }, "subkind": "paragraph", "groupRole": null, "confidence": null, "extraction": { "at": "2026-05-02 20:44:34.513+00", "model": "google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite-preview-20260303", "runId": null, "seconds": null, "promptVersion": null }, "componentId": "93d575c1-68d7-4070-a712-3cc8487db66e", "parentComponentId": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.25, "w": 0.78, "x": 0.11, "y": 0.09 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Waabi is another competitor worth mentioning, particularly as one of its major investors has been Volvo, Aurora's primary OEM partner. Volvo has been adamant that it sees self-driving technology as a kind of “Tier-1 component” and as such is encouraging the presence of several suppliers. Waabi's approach has been to build an end-to-end software architecture, but unlike Tesla and Wayve, using a variety of sensory modalities including cameras, radar, and lidar. 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