2025 Benedict Evans 2025 Autum AI eats the world

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 6 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

4
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

90
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
02
The slide uses a series of S-curves to represent successive technology eras.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
03
The slide uses a simple process flow diagram to categorize the effects of a platform shift.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
04
The chart illustrates the 'S-curve' or lifecycle of a dominant platform.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
05
The chart illustrates the 'first-mover disadvantage' or market disruption by showing how initial market share dominance (All others) was overtaken by a new stanillustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
06
The slide uses a chronological progression to illustrate the recurring pattern of technological uncertainty.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
07
The slide uses screenshots of news articles from Fortune, Business Insider, and CNBC to demonstrate the 'noise' in the current AI market.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
08
The slide uses a book cover as a visual anchor to discuss cognitive biases in financial analysis.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
09
The chart illustrates the normalization of internet usage in social life.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
10
The slide uses a process flow to illustrate the historical progression of technology platforms.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
11
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
12
The slide uses a series of S-curves to represent successive technology waves, with Generative AI shown as a branching point of unknown trajectory.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
13
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & StakesLoop · Precedent
14
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Rising Action
15
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Rising Action
16
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to show the progression of strategic thinking.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
17
The chart highlights the significant increase in capex spending by the 'big four' tech companies, projected to reach $400bn in 2025.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
18
The chart compares the 'big four' tech companies' capex against global telecom spending.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
19
Data after July 2025 is noted as delayed due to a US government shutdown.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
20
The chart illustrates a dramatic shift in market dominance between two major semiconductor companies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
21
The chart illustrates the divergence in revenue trajectories between the three companies, with Nvidia's recent surge outpacing the others.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
22
The chart highlights 'Utility power' as the most significant constraint among the listed factors.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
23
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
24
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
25
The slide highlights the discrepancy between current capacity and ambitious future projections, questioning the realism of the 'bragawatts'.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
26
quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
27
The chart illustrates the significant increase in capital expenditure relative to free cash flow for major tech companies, attributed to AI investments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
28
The chart highlights the significant increase in capital leases for hyperscalers, particularly in recent years.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
29
The slide uses screenshots of news articles from Financial Times, WSJ, and Reuters to provide external validation of the financial strain on hyperscalers.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
30
The slide highlights the scale of AI infrastructure investment, comparing it to global capacity.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
31
The slide uses a network diagram to illustrate how capital flows between AI companies and hardware providers.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
32
The slide uses a causal-chain style logic to map company situations to strategic imperatives.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Pattern Hunter
33
Uses a simple contrast layout to frame the problem statement.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
34
The chart illustrates the 'AI model explosion' trend, highlighting the increasing frequency of new model releases and the saturation of benchmarks.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
35
The y-axis is truncated starting at 90%.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
36
The chart illustrates market penetration differences between AI tools, suggesting that distribution and brand are currently more significant differentiators thacompare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
37
The slide uses a skeptical tone to question the quality of the reported user metrics.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
38
The chart shows a clear trend of increasing usage, but with 'monthly' usage significantly outpacing 'daily' usage.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
39
The chart highlights the variance in survey results while pointing to a consistent trend in usage levels.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
40
The slide uses a simple process flow to frame a strategic question about product adoption.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
41
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
42
The slide uses a central question to frame a binary strategic choice.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
43
The chart illustrates a dramatic spike in capex/sales ratio in recent years, suggesting a shift in business model intensity.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
44
The slide uses a visual metaphor of circles to categorize OpenAI's strategic bets, with one highlighted in red.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
45
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
46
The slide uses screenshots of hypothetical or future product interfaces to illustrate the concept of bundling/unbundling AI features.present_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
47
The chart illustrates the shift from 'Other' to 'AI' startups in Y Combinator batches from 2015 to 2025.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
48
The slide uses a series of circles to present competing hypotheses for value capture.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Rising ActionLoop · Aha Moment
49
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Climax
50
The slide uses a linear process flow to categorize AI strategy approaches.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
51
The slide uses a simple visual list of circles to categorize use cases.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
52
The slide uses screenshots of web articles as evidence for the thesis.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
53
The slide uses a rhetorical question to frame the growth of AI integration services as a proxy for market automation trends.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
54
The slide uses a humorous subtitle 'Step two: buy some SaaS from Dr Evil' to frame the data.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
55
The chart illustrates the 'deployment gap' in AI adoption.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
56
The slide uses a series of circles to categorize common failure points, highlighting that these are standard technology deployment issues.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
57
The chart visualizes survey data from Morgan Stanley regarding LLM adoption timelines.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
58
The chart illustrates the gap between current cloud adoption and future expectations, highlighting a slower-than-anticipated transition.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Maturity Curve
59
The chart shows a significant inflection point in SKU growth following the introduction of barcodes in 1974.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Climax
60
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Climax
61
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to frame future strategic possibilities.state_next_steps
Open slide detailBeat · Climax
62
The slide uses a simple contrast framework to prompt strategic thinking about LLM impact.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Climax
63
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
64
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to guide the reader through the logic of managing LLM-based automation.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
65
Uses Jevons paradox and price elasticity to frame the shift from labor-intensive models to automated ones.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
66
The chart shows a massive divergence between human population and machine-generated labour capacity.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
67
The slide uses a process flow diagram to contrast three eras of recommendation systems.transition
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
68
The chart illustrates the dominance of major tech platforms in global ad spend.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
69
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
70
The slide uses browser window mockups to present real-world case studies of AI adoption in marketing.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
71
The slide uses a contrast-pair structure to illustrate the evolution of AI's perceived role.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
72
The chart displays a clear trend where older demographics rely more heavily on traditional search, while younger demographics show higher adoption of GenAI.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
73
Uses two Wired magazine covers from different eras and a modern NPR article screenshot to show the persistence of the 'web is dead' narrative.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
74
The slide uses a process flow to illustrate a shift in AI/recommendation logic.transition
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
75
The slide uses a photo of Morioka Shoten, a bookstore that famously sells only one book at a time, as a visual counterpoint to the 'infinite' retail mentioned iframe_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
76
The slide uses a circular flow diagram to contrast two types of value propositions.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
77
The slide uses a series of questions to highlight the lack of clarity regarding ownership and nature of AI initiatives.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ClimaxLoop · Time Machine
78
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Resolution
79
The chart tracks three categories: Core retail, Addressable retail, and All retail from 2000 to 2025.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
80
The chart highlights the dominance of Waymo in the robotaxi market compared to Cruise and Tesla.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
81
This slide appears to be a visual transition or filler slide in a presentation by Benedict Evans.filler
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
82
The slide uses a vintage IBM advertisement as a visual metaphor for the cyclical nature of technological disruption.transition
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
83
This slide serves as a historical reference point for discussions on automation.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
84
The slide features a block quote from a 1956 report, emphasizing that automation was already a broad topic of concern in various industrial sectors.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
85
The juxtaposition of the word 'Automation' with a highly manual, legacy control interface serves as a visual metaphor for the evolution of technology.filler
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
86
The chart illustrates the concept of automation making a role obsolete.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
87
other
Open slide detailBeat · ResolutionLoop · Precedent
88
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Resolution
89
other
Open slide detailBeat · Resolution
90
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Resolution