2023 Benedict Evans 2023 AI and Everything Else

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 9 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

5
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

92
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
02
The slide uses a quote to establish the significance of AI, supported by a recent news clipping.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · The Reveal
03
The slide uses a news article as a credibility anchor to contrast the speed of AI company valuation growth against historical tech giants.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · The Reveal
04
Data source: Reuters Institute. The chart compares 'Heard of but not used' vs 'Used' segments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
05
The chart illustrates a high percentage of 'heard of but not used' or 'once or twice' usage compared to daily or weekly usage.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
06
The chart displays two bars per category, representing two different time periods, with each bar split into production (red) and development/pilot (grey) segmenanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
07
The slide uses screenshots of external research reports (Sequoia, BCG, Goldman Sachs) to establish a skeptical industry consensus.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
08
The slide uses a screenshot of an AI-generated image to make a point about the 'Hype Cycle' concept, specifically highlighting the humorous misspelling 'Pleacomillustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
09
The slide uses a sequential growth model to illustrate historical platform shifts.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
10
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Myth Buster
11
transition
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
12
The slide uses a simple flow diagram to contrast two potential future scenarios based on current trends.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
13
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
14
The slide uses screenshots of news articles to frame a market trend discussion.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
15
The slide uses a simple circular layout to present four distinct challenges.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
16
The slide uses screenshots of web articles to present quotes from Alphabet and Meta executives.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
17
The slide features a screenshot of a Semianalysis article titled 'Google "We Have No Moat, And Neither Does OpenAI"'.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
18
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
19
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
20
Uses circular callouts to emphasize scale.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
21
The chart uses a combination of stacked bars for Nvidia and a line graph for Intel to illustrate the divergence in performance.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
22
The chart highlights the significant increase in infrastructure spending by major tech companies.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Pattern Hunter
23
The chart illustrates the shift in capital intensity between traditional telco infrastructure (Verizon) and software/cloud infrastructure (Microsoft).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
24
The slide uses screenshots of web articles to illustrate the trend of financial institutions entering the AI hardware space.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
25
The slide uses a central 'This is amazing! (Now what?)' node branching into two opposing directions: 'Better results' and 'Efficiency'.transition
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
26
The slide uses a historical photo of an IBM System/360 to illustrate the concept of marginal cost in software.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
27
The chart uses arrows to show the progression of model iterations towards higher quality and lower cost.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
28
The chart visualizes the 'feeds and speeds' phase of the AI market, where performance and price are the primary competitive differentiators.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
29
The chart shows a clear trade-off between model performance and cost, with open-source models (Meta) clustering at the lower price point.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
30
The slide uses a pull-quote to highlight a strategic shift in the tech industry towards open source AI models.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
31
The slide uses a screenshot of the Apple Intelligence landing page to exemplify the 'API-fication' of AI models.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
32
The slide uses a play on the 'Better, faster, cheaper - pick two' project management adage to describe the current state of AI model development.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
33
The quote is from The Godfather Part II.other
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
34
The quote is from The Godfather Part II (Michael Corleone).summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
35
The quote is presented as a philosophical anchor for the subsequent observations about market cycles and commodity tech.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
36
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
37
The slide uses an image with bounding boxes to demonstrate early computer vision capabilities.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
38
The slide uses a simple linear process flow to abstract the utility of ML.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
39
The slide uses a screenshot of a ChatGPT interface to provide a real-world example of information retrieval.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
40
The slide uses a screenshot of a news article from The Register as a case study to illustrate AI failure.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
41
diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
42
The slide frames the problem of AI errors as a choice between model improvement vs. product design/UX.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
43
The slide uses a screenshot of a ChatGPT response to illustrate the limitations of LLMs in search contexts.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
44
The slide uses a simple process flow to frame the problem of understanding LLM utility.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
45
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
46
Uses a rhetorical question to frame the difficulty of long-term forecasting.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
47
The chart uses error bars to show the range of exposure within each industry sector.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
48
illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
49
Uses a historical photo of Dan Bricklin with an Apple II to frame the 'use case' problem.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
50
The slide uses a simple circular layout to categorize early adoption use cases.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
51
The chart highlights a significant gap in adoption across different professional sectors.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Tale Two Worlds
52
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
53
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
54
The slide uses a simple linear process flow with circular nodes.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
55
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
56
The slide highlights that while bookings are growing, they are largely pilot-based.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
57
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
58
The chart illustrates the gap between current cloud adoption and future expectations over a decade.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
59
The chart visualizes survey data from Morgan Stanley regarding enterprise AI adoption timelines.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
60
Data source: Productiv. Slide 60 from Benedict Evans presentation.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Maturity Curve
61
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
62
The slide presents a simple decision tree or binary outcome model.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
63
The slide uses a binary choice framework to explore the future of LLM integration.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
64
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
65
The slide uses a simple diagram to contrast two models of software interaction.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
66
The chart highlights the increasing proportion of AI-focused startups in recent YC batches.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
67
The slide illustrates the evolution of software features from simple rule-based systems to AI-integrated interfaces.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
68
The slide uses a linear process diagram to illustrate the commoditization of AI technology.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
69
The slide uses a simple circular diagram to categorize LLM product strategies.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
70
The slide juxtaposes Marvin Minsky's optimistic prediction with Larry Tesler's definition of AI.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
71
The slide uses a simple hub-and-spoke style diagram to illustrate two potential answers to any AI question.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Pivot
72
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Implications
73
The slide uses a reverse-chronological flow (right to left) to show the evolution of ideas.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
74
The chart uses a bar chart to contrast two different historical periods/entities.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
75
The chart illustrates the long-term trend of e-commerce penetration, noting a significant, temporary deviation during the pandemic.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
76
The chart illustrates the temporary spike in e-commerce penetration during the pandemic followed by a return to long-term growth trends.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
77
The chart uses a red bar to highlight Shein among other grey bars. TJX is noted as having a portion of revenue from home goods.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
78
The slide uses a simple line chart to illustrate the rapid growth of Shopify's GMV.quantify_impact
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
79
The chart illustrates a clear inflection point in early 2020.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
80
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
81
The chart uses a dotted line for earlier periods and a solid line for more recent data, indicating a change in reporting or data source.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
82
The chart highlights the revenue scale of digital-native platforms (red) versus traditional media conglomerates (grey).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
83
compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
84
The chart shows a stacked bar representation where Waymo (red) dominates the volume, with minor contributions from Cruise (light red) and Tesla (black, barely vanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
85
The chart compares regional BEV adoption against Tesla's individual performance.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Zoom In
86
The slide uses a simple comparison list to show the relationship between specific industry questions and the relevant expert.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
87
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
88
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
89
The chart highlights the peak around 1950, coinciding with the launch of the Otis Autotronic elevator.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Ladder Abstraction
90
front_matter
92
summarize