2021 Air Street Capital The State of AI Report 2021 · page 155 of 188
The chart shows cumulative probability of training a transformative model over time, with a median estimate of 2052.
Consulting deck · industry_trends · quantify_impact · dense density
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Title quotes the 2052 TAI median estimate.
Analytical method slide · 60%list/bullet: The author, Ajeya Cotra is a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy advised by leading researchers Dario Amodei (Anthropic) and Paul Christiano (Alignment Research Centre).
Concrete Language slide · 78%Specific year 2052 anchors the claim.
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