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  "documentTitle": "2021 Air Street Capital The State of AI Report 2021",
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      "text": "The author, Ajeya Cotra is a Senior Research Analyst at Open Philanthropy advised by leading researchers Dario Amodei (Anthropic) and Paul Christiano (Alignment Research Centre).\nA core assumption is that if researchers are able to train a neural net or other ML model that uses about as much computation as a human brain, that will likely result in transformative AI.\nThe model then explores how as compute becomes cheaper and algorithms continue to become more efficient the likelihood of this threshold is met.",
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      "text": "TAI is defined as \"AI that has an impact comparable to that of the industrial revolution.\" The model predicts a median of 2052 for the year in which some actor would be willing and able to train a single transformative model.",
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      "text": "AI Safety: new quantitative model extrapolates from current research and compute trends to estimate when 'transformative AI' (TAI) might be possible",
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