Pershing Square portfolio (multi-holding LP update: MDLZ, VRX, APD, ZTS, CP, QSR, HHC, PAH, FNMA/FMCC, HLF short)

William Ackman · 2016-01
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

6
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

104
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
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Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup
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other
Open slide detailBeat · Setup
03
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup
04
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Setup
05
compare_peers
06
The chart highlights the significant outperformance of Pershing Square (567.1%) compared to the S&P 500 (135.3%) over the specified period.analyze_data
07
The slide uses a before-after-framing style to demonstrate relative performance resilience.compare_peers
08
The slide uses a split-table format to contrast positive and negative performance contributors.analyze_data
09
Includes a footnote regarding HKD call options treatment.analyze_data
10
Includes a detailed disclaimer regarding the calculation of AUM and the inclusion of Air Products investments.analyze_data
11
transition
12
summarize
13
The slide uses a pie chart to visualize asset allocation, with footnotes clarifying the definition of 'Permanent' capital and specific bond/fee details.summarize
14
The chart illustrates the convergence of price and NAV towards the end of the period.analyze_data
15
transition
16
The slide uses a 'lessons learned' format to build credibility by acknowledging past failures.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Statement
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Includes a list of portfolio company logos at the bottom.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Statement
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The title references Benjamin Graham's famous 'weighing machine' metaphor for the stock market.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Statement
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front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
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Slide 20 of an activist investor deck.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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Mondelez is highlighted in red, while peers are in blue. The chart uses consensus estimates with specific adjustments for each company.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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Uses a timeline to illustrate the accumulation of brands (Jacobs, Nabisco, Cadbury, Milka, LU) leading to the current Mondelez structure.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
25
Uses a split-chart layout to contrast 3G's aggressive margin expansion with Mondelez's more modest targets.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · ComplicationLoop · Tale Two Worlds
26
The slide uses a table to build up to a 2.5% margin increase estimate.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Tale Two Worlds
27
The slide uses a before-after comparison to demonstrate operational efficiency gains under 3G Capital.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Tale Two Worlds
29
The chart uses a gap analysis to highlight the delta between management guidance and activist-proposed optimization.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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Uses a checkmark-based scoring system (1-4) to visualize relative attractiveness of merger candidates.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Tale Two Worlds
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The chart highlights the correlation between Pershing Square's involvement and stock price movement.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
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front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
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This slide provides background context on the target company and the activist's relationship with it.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
34
The slide uses a grid layout to categorize product portfolios by therapeutic area and geography, with percentage revenue estimates for each.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
35
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
36
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
37
The slide uses a shaded region to transition to the next page and highlights the divergence between the purchase price ($196) and the current price ($89).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
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The slide uses a line chart to anchor a timeline of events, paired with a text-based rebuttal of market sentiment.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
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The slide uses a timeline-annotated line chart to frame market events as misunderstandings or manageable issues.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence
40
The chart title contains a typo (1/27/2015 should likely be 1/27/2016).illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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This is a simple, high-impact valuation thesis slide often used in activist presentations to argue for undervaluation.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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The slide uses a bulleted list structure to present a thesis on stock undervaluation and operational catalysts.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
47
The slide uses callout boxes to correlate specific corporate events with stock price movements.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
48
The slide uses a line chart to correlate specific corporate governance and operational events with share price movements.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
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front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
50
Slide 50 of an activist deck, likely providing background on a target company.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · EvidenceLoop · Cost Of Inaction
51
summarize
52
propose_solution
53
summarize
54
Page number 54 included.summarize
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The chart highlights specific dates (May 5 and June 25) corresponding to operational announcements and market rumors.analyze_data
56
The slide uses a dashed line to indicate the average cost basis of ~$37.analyze_data
57
transition
58
The slide uses pie charts to illustrate revenue diversification and bullet points to explain performance drivers.analyze_data
59
The slide uses a 'good news, bad news' structure, ending with a critical takeaway in a blue callout box.summarize
60
summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
61
The slide highlights the disconnect between operational performance and share price decline.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
62
The slide uses a line chart with callout boxes to correlate specific events with stock price movements.illustrate_case
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
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front_matter
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
64
summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
65
The slide uses a mix of checkmarks for positive performance and an 'x' for negative FX impact.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
66
The chart illustrates a volatile year for QSR stock, ending at $37.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
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The chart uses a dashed line to indicate the average cost basis of $16.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
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front_matter
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
69
Slide 69 from an activist investor deck (likely Pershing Square).establish_context
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
70
The slide uses a two-part structure: positive performance highlights followed by a rebuttal to market concerns about oil price exposure.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailLoop · Before After
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The chart highlights a decline in share price, ending at $113.analyze_data
72
The chart uses a dashed line to indicate the starting price of $37.illustrate_case
73
front_matter
74
The slide highlights EBITDA growth, FX headwinds, leadership turnover, guidance cuts, and high leverage.summarize
75
summarize
76
The slide uses callout boxes to link specific corporate announcements to sharp drops in the stock price.expose_contradiction
77
The slide uses annotations to point out specific investment dates and share prices to contrast with the current poor performance.expose_contradiction
78
front_matter
79
Slide 79 of an activist investor deck.summarize
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The chart highlights the volatility of the stock following major acquisitions and earnings reports.analyze_data
81
transition
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summarize
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preempt_rebuttal
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Includes a callout box regarding the Jumpstart GSE amendment.analyze_data
85
The chart uses dashed lines to indicate the average cost basis for both stocks.analyze_data
86
transition
87
Uses a combination of direct CEO quotes and financial disclosure data to build a case for the 'pyramid scheme' thesis.expose_contradiction
88
The slide uses external legal and political precedents to build the case against the company.name_villain
89
Uses bulleted list to contrast management guidance with actual performance and market expectations.expose_contradiction
90
The slide uses a combination of bar charts for absolute values and line charts for YoY growth to illustrate the business decline.diagnose_problem
91
The slide uses a combination of bar and line charts to illustrate the deceleration of key operational metrics.expose_contradiction
92
The slide uses a dual-axis combo chart (bar + line) to demonstrate declining performance metrics over time.expose_contradiction
93
The slide highlights that stock price growth was driven by valuation multiple expansion rather than fundamental operating performance.expose_contradiction
94
The slide uses a visual anchor (dashed line) to show the cost basis relative to the current stock price.expose_contradiction
95
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
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appendix
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
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The slide uses a line chart with callout boxes to annotate specific milestones in the investment timeline.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
98
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
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Includes a legend for new hires and operational leadership group members.other
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
100
introduce_nominees
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
101
introduce_nominees
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
102
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
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Page number 103 indicates this is the final appendix section of a large activist investor deck.appendix
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion
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other
Open slide detailBeat · Conclusion