Herbalife, Ltd. (HLF)

William Ackman · 2015-08
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

4
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

63
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
02
other
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
03
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
04
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
05
This slide appears to be from an activist presentation (likely Pershing Square's Herbalife deck) used to establish the company's expansion history.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
06
The slide uses a CEO quote to frame the company's strategy in China as recruitment-heavy, likely to support an argument about pyramid scheme characteristics.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
07
The slide uses a table to demonstrate the increasing reliance on the Chinese market.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
08
The slide uses a 'ceo-quote-contradiction' framework to imply that the company's secrecy about compensation in China may be masking regulatory non-compliance orexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
09
The slide uses a yellow callout box to emphasize the accusatory question.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
10
The slide uses a yellow background callout box to emphasize the legal constraints.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
11
This slide outlines the investigative process, including third-party research and document review.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
12
The slide uses a yellow background to highlight the core allegations of regulatory non-compliance and accounting misrepresentation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
13
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
14
The slide highlights a discrepancy between internal distributor terminology and official company 10K filings.decompose_segments
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
15
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Analogy
16
The slide uses a yellow callout box to emphasize the lack of consumer value in the Preferred Customer program.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
17
The slide uses a quote from a 2013 news article to frame the business model as a disguised form of recruitment fees.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
18
This slide is likely from an activist presentation (Pershing Square/Ackman) critiquing Herbalife's business model by highlighting how 'credits' are framed as 'sanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
19
The slide highlights the structural incentive for recruiting inherent in the compensation model.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
20
The slide uses a green box to highlight the recruitment requirement and a yellow box to emphasize the incentive structure, framing it as a critique of the businexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
21
The slide contains a photograph of a handwritten document with annotations, arrows, and organizational hierarchy sketches.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
22
The slide uses a table to expose the predatory nature of a multi-level marketing structure by comparing high entry costs to national GDP.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
23
The slide uses a green callout box to emphasize the deceptive nature of the compensation terminology.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
24
The slide uses a process-oriented list to expose a deceptive accounting practice.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
25
The slide uses a table to show the rates and green callout boxes to frame the argument that the consulting pay structure is a sham.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
26
The slide highlights a contradiction between the company's public retail-focused narrative and the internal reality of distributor income.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
27
The slide uses a direct quote to expose the mechanics of a multi-level marketing structure, specifically highlighting the distributor's own awareness of the 'pyexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
28
Uses testimonials from distributors to prove the business model is recruitment-based rather than service-based.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
29
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
30
The slide features a photograph of a hand-drawn tree diagram on paper, showing a hierarchy starting from 'Me' (我) and branching out into multiple levels of recrillustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
31
The diagram shows a 'Me' node at the top with multiple branches, indicating a pyramid or network structure.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
32
The slide uses a hand-drawn sketch to explain the recruitment hierarchy, likely to illustrate a pyramid or multi-level marketing structure.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
33
The slide contains a hand-drawn sketch of a hub-and-spoke model with a Chinese character for 'you' in the center and a bracket indicating '200' recruits.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
34
The diagram shows a hierarchical tree structure with Chinese characters, suggesting a pyramid or network marketing scheme.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
35
The slide uses informal, hand-drawn sketches to provide qualitative evidence of distributor behavior.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
36
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
37
Uses a simple causal flow diagram to link a business practice to legal violation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
38
expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
39
Uses a simple causal flow diagram to show the violation of a specific legal article.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
40
Uses a visual arrow to connect business practices to legal definitions.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
41
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
42
The slide uses a table from the 2013 10K to demonstrate that China's contribution margin is artificially inflated compared to other regions.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
43
The slide uses a table to perform a pro forma adjustment on contribution margins, highlighting the discrepancy between reported and adjusted figures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
44
The slide uses a screenshot of a spreadsheet to provide primary source evidence of internal financial assumptions.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
45
The slide uses a red box to highlight the matching figures between the internal document and the public 10-K filing.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
46
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'China Royalties' row in the table.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
47
The slide uses an internal document to expose the mechanical nature of their financial forecasting, specifically targeting the 'China Sales Employees' line itemexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
48
The slide uses a stacked bar chart to visualize the components of distributor payout, contrasting retail profit with various bonuses.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
49
The slide uses a red arrow to link a table of percentages to a visual breakdown of the 73% distributor payout.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
50
expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
51
The slide uses a yellow callout box to highlight the core argument against the company's business model.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
52
The slide uses 'villain critique' style evidence (hand-drawn diagrams) to expose a contradiction between official policy and actual practice.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
53
The slide uses a green callout box to present data extracted from 10K filings, contrasting the company's public reporting with the context of mass-rally promotiexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
54
This slide is a classic 'fraud exposure' or 'villain critique' slide, common in activist short-seller presentations.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
55
expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
56
state_next_steps
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
58
The slide highlights regulatory constraints on direct selling business models in China.cite_precedent
59
cite_precedent
60
The slide provides a direct legal citation to establish the regulatory framework for pyramid schemes in China.cite_precedent
61
cite_precedent
62
cite_precedent
63
The slide highlights the specific criteria (30 participants, 3 levels) for criminal liability in China.cite_precedent