William Ackman · conference-presentation
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FNMA / FMCC)
111 pages · 5 arc beats · 3 loops
Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac (FNMA / FMCC)
William Ackman · 2014-05 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
5 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 111 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Situation & Context 4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides · 18 hits — 0/4 slides
— 0/4 slides
— 0/4 slides
100% 4/4 slides — 0/4 slides
Problem & Complication 12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 57 hits — 0/12 slides
58.3% 7/12 slides 33.3% 4/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides — 0/12 slides
Solution & Approach 16 slides 100% 16/16 slides 100% 16/16 slides · 74 hits — 0/16 slides
81.3% 13/16 slides · 14 hits 43.8% 7/16 slides 100% 16/16 slides 50% 8/16 slides Evidence & Proof 20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides · 107 hits — 0/20 slides
10% 2/20 slides · 3 hits 10% 2/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides Impact & Next Steps 59 slides 100% 59/59 slides 100% 59/59 slides · 316 hits — 0/59 slides
47.5% 28/59 slides · 32 hits 35.6% 21/59 slides 100% 59/59 slides 100% 59/59 slides · 65 hits Slide inventory
111 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
03
Slide provides a snapshot of the GSEs' market position and financial state as of May 2014.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
09
The chart illustrates the market share shift in residential mortgages over three decades.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
10
The chart illustrates the expansion of GSE market share at the expense of other categories, with a notable temporary spike in Private-Label MBS leading up to thanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
11
The chart highlights the shift in market dominance toward GSEs following the 2008 financial crisis.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
14
The chart uses a dashed oval to highlight the US column. The source is Dr. Michael Lea, 2010.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
16
The U.S. column is highlighted with a dashed oval to emphasize its outlier status regarding MBS funding.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & Complication
19
The slide uses a hierarchical structure to contrast the risk profiles and purposes of the two business lines.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
24
Uses a stacked bar chart to illustrate capital stack seniority.present_framework
25
The slide uses a causal chain to explain why guarantees issued during downturns are lower risk.present_framework
26
The chart uses a grouped bar format to compare two entities over time.analyze_data
28
The chart uses a broken y-axis (indicated by the tilde symbols) to accommodate the extreme negative values in 2008.diagnose_problem
29
The chart uses a split-view to contrast massive losses against a small capital requirement.diagnose_problem
30
The slide uses a grouped bar chart to show the discrepancy between accounting provisions and actual realized losses, culminating in a cumulative comparison.expose_contradiction
31
The slide uses a before-after framing to contrast accounting-based losses with actual credit performance.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution & Approach
32
The slide uses a comparison of portfolio share vs. loss share to highlight the high risk of specific loan types.diagnose_problem
33
The slide uses a visual comparison between a negative bar representing losses and a positive bar representing capital requirements to argue for the adequacy of analyze_data
34
The chart uses a stacked bar format to show the contribution of each entity to the total quarterly profit.analyze_data
35
The slide highlights the regulatory mandate by FHFA to increase G-fees to encourage private sector competition.analyze_data
37
The slide highlights the impact of reserve releases on GSE profitability.analyze_data
39
The slide uses a simplified balance sheet representation to show how high leverage (40x) generates ROE from a small net interest spread.analyze_data
40
The slide uses a direct quote to establish authority and frame the problem with the GSEs.cite_precedent
41
The chart highlights a significant growth trend leading up to the financial crisis, with a red arrow emphasizing the upward trajectory.analyze_data
42
The slide highlights the excessive leverage (6x) of risky assets relative to capital requirements.diagnose_problem
43
The chart highlights the profitability of the FIA business segment for the two GSEs before the 2008 financial crisis.analyze_data
46
The slide uses a grouped bar chart to compare two entities over time. The negative values are represented below the zero axis.diagnose_problem
47
The slide highlights the government-mandated wind-down of assets to a $500bn limit.summarize
50
Slide 49 of a presentation deck.present_framework
51
The chart illustrates the transition from losses to profitability followed by the implementation of the 100% dividend sweep.analyze_data
52
The slide uses a structured list to present legal grievances, concluding with a status update on ongoing litigation.preempt_rebuttal
53
The chart uses a grouped bar format for annual data and a summary total at the end.analyze_data
54
The slide uses a bar chart to visualize the delta between actual payments and original obligations.analyze_data
55
The slide illustrates the 'excess' dividends paid under the current sweep compared to the original terms.analyze_data
59
The slide uses a list of six reasons to support the thesis that private capital is insufficient.diagnose_problem
60
The slide uses historical data to frame a problem of scale regarding capital requirements.quantify_opportunity
61
The slide uses historical IPO data to frame a problem regarding capital availability for new market participants.cite_precedent
63
The slide uses a hypothetical cost structure based on Essent Group to demonstrate the unprofitability of new entrants.quantify_opportunity
64
The slide uses a scenario table to demonstrate the impact of varying capital requirements on required G-fees.analyze_data
65
The slide uses a combination of a line chart for interest rates and a bar chart for origination volumes to demonstrate sensitivity.analyze_data
66
The slide uses a quote from a political figure to establish a precedent of government overreach affecting market confidence.cite_precedent
67
The slide highlights a significant contraction in the market value of PMIs, with a specific callout noting a 90% decline through 2012.analyze_data
68
The slide highlights that PMI coverage is a small fraction of total mortgage originations, peaking at 15% of originations in 2007.analyze_data
69
The slide uses a historical narrative to support the thesis that private capital in this sector is inherently pro-cyclical and unreliable.establish_context
70
The chart illustrates the collapse of the private-label mortgage market following the 2008 financial crisis.analyze_data
72
The slide uses a dual-axis chart to show the inverse relationship between total mortgage volume and bank retention share.analyze_data
75
Uses a testimonial/quote from industry associations to bolster the argument against change.preempt_rebuttal
76
The chart illustrates the shift in market dominance from private capital to GSEs following the 2008 financial crisis.analyze_data
77
The chart uses an inverted Y-axis to represent spread in basis points.analyze_data
84
The slide uses a waterfall-style comparison to justify a capital increase.propose_solution
85
The slide uses a checkmark/cross matrix to justify a lower capital requirement for GSEs.compare_peers
86
The chart uses a stacked bar visual to represent LTV coverage ranges (0-80% vs 80-100%).compare_peers
88
The table shows a hypothetical scenario analysis of GSE financial performance during the 2007-2011 period.preempt_rebuttal
89
The slide uses a financial model to argue that current g-fees are sufficient to cover historical loss rates, preempting arguments that higher capital requiremenpreempt_rebuttal
90
The slide uses a downward arrow to visually emphasize the reduction strategy.propose_solution
95
The slide explicitly notes that this estimate excludes income from investing the float produced by the guarantee business.quantify_opportunity
96
The slide uses a hypothetical scenario to demonstrate earnings potential based on regulatory fee adjustments.analyze_data
97
The table uses a waterfall-style logic to arrive at net income from G-fees.quantify_opportunity
99
The slide uses a buildup approach to determine the capital gap.quantify_opportunity
100
The chart shows a transition from dividend-heavy payments to retained earnings for common equity.analyze_data
101
The chart illustrates a 10-year earnings projection totaling $146 billion.quantify_opportunity
102
The slide includes a secondary estimate regarding warehouse mortgage loans at the bottom.quantify_opportunity
103
The slide uses a bar chart to demonstrate the inverse relationship between g-fee levels and the time required to reach a specific capital ratio.quantify_opportunity
105
The slide uses a standard valuation buildup approach to derive future share price and warrant value.show_valuation_bridge
106
The slide uses a scenario-based valuation approach to demonstrate the upside potential of GSE reform.quantify_opportunity
107
The slide uses a before-after style comparison to illustrate the 'effective' ownership increase.quantify_opportunity
108
The slide uses a checkmark/cross comparison matrix to advocate for a specific policy path.compare_peers
109
The slide references historical precedents (AIG and Citi) to support the proposed conversion strategy.propose_solution
110
The slide uses a blue header for the core recommendation and a yellow callout box for the concluding thought.propose_solution
111
The slide uses a list format to enumerate the negative impacts of inaction.diagnose_problem