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Pershing Square Capital Management · conference-presentation

Mall REIT sector (long General Growth Properties) (GGP)

68 pages · 7 arc beats · 3 loops

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Mall REIT sector (long General Growth Properties) (GGP)

Pershing Square Capital Management · 2009-12
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

7
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 68 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Attention 3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides · 10 hits
— 0/3 slides
— 0/3 slides
— 0/3 slides
100% 3/3 slides
— 0/3 slides
Interest 6 slides 100% 6/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides · 25 hits
— 0/6 slides
— 0/6 slides
— 0/6 slides
100% 6/6 slides
— 0/6 slides
Situation & Context 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 49 hits
— 0/10 slides
70% 7/10 slides
— 0/10 slides
100% 10/10 slides
— 0/10 slides
Problem & Complication 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 47 hits
— 0/10 slides
50% 5/10 slides 50% 5/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides Evidence & Proof 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 46 hits
— 0/10 slides
30% 3/10 slides 20% 2/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides Desire 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 48 hits
— 0/10 slides
50% 5/10 slides 50% 5/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides Action 19 slides 100% 19/19 slides 100% 19/19 slides · 86 hits
— 0/19 slides
5.3% 1/19 slides 57.9% 11/19 slides 100% 19/19 slides
— 0/19 slides

Slide inventory

68
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The title is a metaphorical call to action, suggesting the need for timely investment decisions.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
02
Includes a footnote citation to Warren Buffett.other
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
03
The slide uses a chevron-style graphic to indicate a transition to a later time period.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
04
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
05
The slide uses a quote from Ben Bernanke to frame the economic data.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
06
The chart uses a green arrow to visually emphasize the improvement from October to November.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
07
The chart includes a forecast line extending beyond the historical data.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
08
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
09
The chart uses a trailing three-month average to smooth volatility.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Interest
10
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
11
The slide uses a line chart for interest rate spreads and a stacked bar chart for bond issuance volumes.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
12
The chart highlights the index value of 1,106 at the end of the period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
13
The chart shows a clear upward trend from a low point in March 2009 to a value of $45 by December 2009.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
14
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
15
The slide uses a table to contrast recent debt issuance rates (6.92% average) against older issuances (9.20% average).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
16
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
17
The chart uses dual lines to contrast equity vs debt issuance trends over a 20-year period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
18
The chart tracks the average leverage ratio (total liabilities net of cash as a % of current value of assets) for a specific group of REITs.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
19
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Situation & Context
20
The slide uses a dual-line chart to argue for further cap rate compression based on the historical spread between REIT cap rates and corporate bond yields.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
21
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
22
The slide uses a table to show how specific acquisitions (Eddie Bauer, Ritz Camera, Filene's, J. Jill) mitigated store closures.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
23
cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
24
The slide highlights that despite industry 'right-sizing' trends, specific retail concepts showed store count growth.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
25
The table provides a breakdown of store counts by company and concept, showing growth across most entities.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
26
The table tracks store expansion for specific mall-based retail concepts.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
27
The chart shows a slight dip in occupancy starting in Q1 2009 compared to 2008 levels, but the trend remains relatively flat.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
28
The chart includes a data table at the bottom showing the percentage point difference between the two groups.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
29
The chart demonstrates stability in bad debt provisions despite the financial crisis period.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Problem & ComplicationLoop · Cost Of Inaction
30
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
31
The chart shows a significant divergence starting around March 2009.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
32
Data source: Capital IQ. Net debt data as of December 4, 2009.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
33
The slide highlights a 33% total improvement in net debt positions across the listed tenants.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
34
The slide uses a line chart to visualize the stock price performance over the year 2009.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
35
The slide uses a Bloomberg terminal screenshot to provide empirical evidence of debt price recovery.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
36
cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
37
frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
38
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
39
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Evidence & ProofLoop · Golden Circle
40
frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
41
The slide uses a callout box to highlight the key takeaway that inventory declines exceed sales declines.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
42
The slide uses a callout box to highlight the key takeaway that inventory declines exceed sales declines.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
43
The slide highlights that the improvement is notable given the seasonal cash flow negativity of Q3 for retailers.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
44
The slide highlights a counter-seasonal improvement in cash flow for retailers.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
45
transition
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
46
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
47
The slide provides a narrative summary of retail performance trends throughout 2009.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
48
transition
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
49
The slide uses a chevron graphic to imply a transition to the next slide.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · DesireLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
50
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Action
51
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Action
52
present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Action
53
The slide uses a 3-column grid to present qualitative and quantitative expansion data for 18 companies.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Action
54
The slide provides a snapshot of retail expansion activity around 2009-2010.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Action
55
The slide provides a non-exhaustive list of tenant expansion activities as evidence of market growth.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Action
56
The slide uses a circular process diagram to explain a business flywheel effect.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Action
57
The chart illustrates the 'virtuous cycle' of supply constraints helping demand for existing products.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Action
58
cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Action
59
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Action
60
The slide uses a weighted average calculation based on tenant revenue contribution to GGP.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Action
61
The table highlights that most tenants are expected to have higher margins in 2011 compared to 2008.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Action
62
The slide uses a bar chart to compare historical performance against a projected 2009 estimate.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Action
63
The chart uses a trailing 4-week average to smooth volatility in weekly mall traffic data.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Action
64
establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Action
65
present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Action
66
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Action
67
The slide uses a balance sheet structure (Assets vs Liabilities) to define the ideal REIT profile.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Action
68
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Action