Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)

Spruce Point Capital Management · 2024-07
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 10
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

125
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The image uses a metaphorical visual (a burning robot vacuum surrounded by vermin) to imply a 'dumpster fire' or failing business situation.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
02
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
03
The slide uses a comparison table to validate the firm's methodology by showing past successful outcomes.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
04
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
05
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
06
The slide uses a yellow background for the main body and a red footer for a specific counter-argument regarding Berkshire Hathaway's position.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
07
The slide uses a two-section structure to attack both the company's business performance and the integrity of its leadership.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
08
The slide uses a narrative-heavy structure to draw parallels between FND and a historical bankruptcy case (Linens 'N Things) to undermine management credibilityexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
09
The slide uses a 'myth vs. reality' structure to dismantle the bull case for FND.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
10
The slide uses a red flag icon to emphasize the negative nature of the changes listed.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
11
The slide uses a narrative-heavy format to build a case for short-selling based on governance, accounting, and valuation concerns.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
12
The slide uses a bar chart to compare FND's growth expectations against peers, highlighting a negative outlier (Tile Shop) and a high outlier (Floor & Decor).preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
13
The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Adjusted' methodology to re-calculate leverage ratios.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
14
Uses the 'duck test' idiom to imply fraud or accounting irregularities.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
15
Uses the 'contrast-pairs' framework to highlight the gap between Buffett's stated values and FND's operational reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
16
The slide uses a visual 'red flag' icon and a large 'X' to emphasize the negative nature of each point.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
17
The slide uses a rhetorical question to frame the upcoming argument.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
18
Uses a table-like structure to contrast FND's official statements with the reality of executive compensation and whistleblower testimony.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
19
Uses a contrast-based argument to frame the CEO's behavior as excessive.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
20
Uses red underlining and arrows to connect the executive's biography to specific past corporate failures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
21
Uses a red box to highlight the false claim in the company bio and a red box to highlight the 'Lapsed' status in the verification record.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
22
Uses a side-by-side comparison to highlight similarities in business strategy language between a failed company and the target company.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
23
Uses a red arrow to link the CEO's quote to the 2004 sales figure and a red box to highlight the inflection point in store growth.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
24
The slide uses a 'villain' framing to attack the credibility of a specific board member.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
25
Uses screenshots of press releases/filings as evidence of past restatements.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
26
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).transition
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
27
Uses a combination of a bar chart for historical growth and a table of quotes to expose management contradictions.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
28
Uses a 'before-after' framing to contrast management's IPO narrative with subsequent reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
29
The slide uses a reconstruction methodology to isolate new store sales from Spartan Surfaces sales.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
30
The slide uses a Q&A format between an analyst and an executive to highlight concerns about FND's growth strategy and core focus.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Cost Of Inaction
31
The red block explicitly highlights the missing data points.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
32
The table highlights a shift in store opening strategy towards lower-income areas and introduces a new $1m dice roll promotion.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
33
The slide uses a callout box to highlight the trend of opening stores in lower-income areas.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
34
Uses a comparison table format to contrast historical disclosure with recent commentary.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
35
The slide uses a table to show the transition from specific YoY growth percentages to qualitative descriptors like 'strong sales' and 'significantly above'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
36
The slide uses a table format to present a dialogue between an analyst and an executive.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
37
The slide highlights a pattern of management failing to meet its own capex guidance, suggesting poor business control.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
38
Uses a table to demonstrate the trend of rising capex per store and the subsequent lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
39
The slide uses a red-box highlight to draw attention to specific data anomalies (2020 spike and 2022-2023 disclosure gaps).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
40
Uses screenshots of official Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation project pages as evidence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
41
Uses MD&A excerpts to contrast company explanations with the activist's calculated run-rate.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
42
The slide highlights a discrepancy between reported minimum lease payments and actual binding obligations.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
43
Highlights a discrepancy between lease commencement accounting and credit agreement debt definitions.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
44
The table highlights the increasing trend of FND's lease commitments compared to the stable or decreasing percentages of its peers.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
45
The slide uses a before-and-after comparison of financial disclosures to demonstrate how lease obligations were previously obscured.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
46
The slide uses color-coded highlights (red for negative/warning, green for context) to emphasize the risk of underperforming new stores and the nature of the obanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
47
The slide argues that long-term leases are a risk factor for the company.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
48
The slide highlights a discrepancy between FND's increasing lease duration and its relatively stable discount rate compared to peers.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
49
The slide uses a side-by-side table comparison to show the loss of disclosure detail.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
50
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (spruce tree logo).frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Hypothesis Test
51
The slide uses a numbered list with 'X' markers to visually negate each bull case point.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
52
Uses a 'before-after' framing to highlight a strategic shift that contradicts previous investor messaging.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
53
Uses anecdotal evidence from former employees and a price comparison screenshot to contradict company claims.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
54
The slide uses a table format to categorize specific operational complaints from a store manager.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
55
Uses a table to present chronological quotes from management to expose a narrative shift.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
56
The slide uses red arrows to highlight the removal of specific brand names (AquaGuard, DuraLux, NuCore, Optimax) from the 2023 10-K compared to previous years.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
57
Uses Wayback Machine screenshots to contrast historical branding with current website state.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
58
Includes a price comparison callout between FND and Arbor.com and a table showing product count disparity.compare_peers
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
59
Uses a side-by-side comparison of company marketing vs. industry reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
60
The slide uses a yellow highlight to emphasize the executive's critical assessment of the company's strategic pivot.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
61
Uses a 'before-after' style comparison of 10-K filings to highlight a specific retraction of a claim.expose_contradiction
62
The slide uses red arrows to highlight specific data points of concern regarding inventory distribution and disclosure.expose_contradiction
63
The slide uses a combination of expert testimony and screenshots of competitor websites to demonstrate the closing of a technology gap.expose_contradiction
64
Uses app store screenshots to highlight poor performance and negative user sentiment for FND's app.compare_peers
65
Uses a chronological sequence of quotes to expose management's shifting narrative on store strategy.expose_contradiction
66
The slide uses a 'walk-back' narrative to undermine management credibility.expose_contradiction
67
The slide uses a chronological list of quotes to establish a baseline of management claims about designer performance.expose_contradiction
68
The slide uses a 'before-after' style contradiction by contrasting past growth claims with the final decline and lack of transparency.expose_contradiction
69
The slide uses a table to contrast the company's stated conversion rates over time, highlighting the 2021 methodology shift.expose_contradiction
70
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight negative trends and link them to the company's 'Marketing Drives Awareness & Consideration' claim.expose_contradiction
71
The slide uses red highlighting to draw attention to the removed TAM data and green highlighting to show the addition of 'distributors' to the competitive landsexpose_contradiction
72
Uses maps to visualize geographic expansion of a private competitor.compare_peers
73
Uses a combination of analyst call transcripts and Wayback Machine screenshots to demonstrate competitive encroachment.expose_contradiction
74
The slide uses a red-highlighting technique to draw attention to the lack of disclosure in 2019 and 2023.expose_contradiction
75
The slide uses a table to highlight the reversal of growth trends in gift card liabilities, contradicting the narrative of successful customer engagement.expose_contradiction
76
The slide uses a table-like structure to contrast two acquisitions with their respective deal call quotes.expose_contradiction
77
The slide uses a red arrow to connect the 45% revenue figure to the 'Pro Ecosystem' box, highlighting the strategic importance of this segment.preempt_rebuttal
78
The slide uses a table format to present chronological management quotes as evidence of program success.summarize
79
Includes a timeline of corporate history and a map of locations.size_opportunity
80
Uses red arrows to visually connect the contradictory statements to the updated 2022 profile data.expose_contradiction
81
Uses a comparison table of historical quotes vs. current sales data to highlight a strategic contradiction.expose_contradiction
82
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'Big growth divergence' between receivables growth and sales growth.expose_contradiction
83
Includes a table of financial data, a legal document screenshot, and a credit application screenshot.expose_contradiction
84
Uses a direct quote from a conference call to set up the contradiction.expose_contradiction
85
Uses a 'CEO Quote vs Reality' structure to expose management contradiction.expose_contradiction
86
The slide uses a 'before-after' or 'evidence-based' comparison style to highlight discrepancies in reported vs. actual operational data.expose_contradiction
87
The slide uses screenshots of Facebook comments to demonstrate poor customer service and operational failure.expose_contradiction
88
The table lists specific store managers, their tenure, and prior experience, with a subset highlighted in yellow indicating those who have already left the compexpose_contradiction
89
The slide uses a combination of qualitative interview text and quantitative data from BBB, Glassdoor, and Pissed Off Customer to build a case against the companexpose_contradiction
90
Spruce Point Capital Management branding.transition
91
The slide uses a 'before and after' structure to show that the company's risk language remains largely unchanged despite a claimed remediation in 2019.expose_contradiction
92
The slide uses a red 'X' overlay on a financial table to emphasize the removal of the disclosure.expose_contradiction
93
The slide uses a table to show the delta between sales growth and A/R growth, pointing to potential accounting manipulation or business health issues.expose_contradiction
94
Uses Wayback Machine screenshots to prove policy change.expose_contradiction
95
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison of two tables to visually demonstrate the change in terminology.expose_contradiction
96
The slide uses color-coded cells (green for positive/neutral, red for negative/warning) to visualize the degradation of disclosure quality.expose_contradiction
97
Uses red arrows and red callout boxes to highlight discrepancies between reported figures in different periods.expose_contradiction
98
Highlights specific text changes in accounting policies and revenue footnotes between fiscal years.expose_contradiction
99
The slide highlights a lack of transparency (NA values) in recent quarters following a period of growth.expose_contradiction
100
Includes a red hand-drawn arrow connecting the 2020/2019 figures in the 2021 report to the 2020 report.expose_contradiction
101
Uses red strikethrough and red background to highlight discrepancies in company reporting.expose_contradiction
102
The slide uses a table to compare reported vs calculated growth and a list of quotes to show the shift in terminology over time.expose_contradiction
103
The slide highlights a specific change in accounting policy language between the IPO-2019 period and 2020-Today, suggesting it was done to artificially inflate expose_contradiction
104
The slide uses yellow highlighting to draw attention to specific accounting terms.compare_peers
105
The slide uses a table to contrast quarterly gross profit data with the company's own qualitative explanations, pointing out the omission of price increase beneexpose_contradiction
106
The slide uses a table to compare FND's cash flow from payables against peers like Home Depot and Lowe's to demonstrate the outlier status.expose_contradiction
107
The slide uses a table to demonstrate a potential accounting or operational red flag regarding inventory buildup.expose_contradiction
108
The slide uses a red arrow to visually connect the change in terminology from 'amounts due to our suppliers' to 'amounts owed to the financial intermediaries'.expose_contradiction
109
The slide uses a combination of narrative text, a direct quote from a 10-K, and a financial table to demonstrate a pattern of behavior.expose_contradiction
110
The slide uses a numbered list with question marks to emphasize the demand for transparency.state_demand
111
transition
112
The slide uses a table to demonstrate a pattern of insider selling, contrasting company growth claims with the behavior of its primary stakeholders.expose_contradiction
113
The slide uses a table to chronologically list SEC disclosures to build a narrative of suspicious insider activity.expose_contradiction
114
The slide uses a contrast-based argument to suggest management incentives are misaligned with operational health.compare_peers
115
The slide uses a table to present evidence of related-party transactions involving board members Dwight James and Ryan Marshall.expose_contradiction
116
Uses red underlining in the source text to emphasize the contradiction.expose_contradiction
117
The slide uses a 'suspicion' frame to interpret standard governance updates as potential red flags.expose_contradiction
118
Uses a quote from the subject to highlight the brevity of his actual auditing experience.name_villain
119
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
120
The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Adjusted' methodology to reclassify liabilities as debt, resulting in a higher leverage ratio (3.1x vs 2.2x).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
121
The slide uses a bar chart to contrast FND's peers against a Pool Corp warning callout to argue that FND's growth targets are unrealistic.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
122
The slide highlights FND's premium valuation relative to peers, specifically calling out adjusted estimates for operating expenses.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
123
The slide uses a table of analyst ratings and a pie chart to visualize the consensus, contrasting it with the activist's bearish thesis.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
124
Uses direct quotes from company 10-K filings to validate the thesis of tariff-related risk.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
125
The slide uses a standard valuation bridge format to derive equity value from enterprise value, then calculates share price and downside.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory