Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)

Spruce Point Capital Management · 2023-01
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 2
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

36
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The slide uses a metaphorical image of a rat and a downward-trending stock chart to convey a negative investment thesis.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
02
other
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
03
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
04
The slide uses a comparison table to establish credibility by citing past successful short campaigns.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
05
Standard Spruce Point Capital Management branding.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
06
The slide uses a red-bordered callout box for the main thesis and a grid-like layout to summarize four key pillars of the short thesis.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
07
The slide uses a sidebar-body layout to present three distinct pillars of the short thesis.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
08
The slide uses a structured list format to present four key pillars of the short thesis.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
09
This is a section divider slide featuring the Spruce Point Capital Management logo.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
10
Includes a screenshot of an SEC press release and excerpts from an SEC order.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Pattern Hunter
11
The slide uses callouts to point out specific categories of adjustments that the author deems inappropriate.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Pattern Hunter
12
The slide uses two tables to demonstrate failure to meet aggressive targets and a callout box to highlight potential conflicts of interest.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Pattern Hunter
13
Uses a table-like structure to juxtapose contradictory statements from company filings and executive commentary.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Pattern Hunter
14
The slide uses a table to contrast management's stated 85-90 day target with actual performance calculated via Bloomberg methodology.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The StruggleLoop · Pattern Hunter
15
The table highlights the discrepancy between GAAP/Non-GAAP income and actual cash flow, specifically calling out 'Advancement' as a pull-forward of cash.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
16
The slide highlights a lack of transparency regarding a major customer concentration.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
17
The slide uses a table format to present qualitative interview feedback alongside a summary of external research findings.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
18
Uses a side-by-side comparison of risk disclosures to show how the company's risk profile has evolved/worsened regarding large customer dependency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
19
The slide uses a red callout box to highlight the 'Stopped Disclosing' period and a bracket to indicate 'Increasing Stress'.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
20
Uses a combination of a line chart for shipments and a bar chart for YoY change to illustrate cyclical peaks and declines.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
21
Uses a red box to highlight the most recent data point (Nov 2022) and a red block for missing data (2017-2018).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
22
Uses a red arrow to visually connect the ownership table to the calculation table, emphasizing the discrepancy.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
23
Uses a red callout box to highlight the contradiction between the last repurchase date and the company's fair value target.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
24
transition
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
25
The slide uses a table to demonstrate the discrepancy between income statement interest expense and cash flow statement interest expense.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The VictoryLoop · Cost Of Inaction
26
The slide uses a color-coded legend at the bottom to distinguish between small and large deviations in the final row.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
27
The slide uses a table to perform a forensic accounting reconciliation of debt balances and interest rates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
28
The table compares balance sheet changes vs cash flow statement changes to calculate a discrepancy.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
29
Uses direct excerpts from Credit Agreement and 10-K to contrast FIFO vs Weighted Average Cost reporting.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
30
The slide highlights a shift in audit rigor, specifically pointing to the 2022 audit's use of independent data specialists to verify management's inventory reseexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
31
Spruce Point Capital Management branding present.transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
32
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by linking SMCI's valuation to struggling sectors (Metaverse/Cloud).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
33
The slide uses a table and a pie chart to visualize analyst polarization, with a callout box framing the bearish thesis.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
34
Uses three line charts to show a divergence between the subject company and its peer/market indices.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
35
The slide highlights SMCI's valuation relative to peers, specifically calling out Wiwynn as a comparable.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
36
The slide uses a standard valuation bridge format to justify a short thesis.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory