Spruce Point Capital · activist-deck
Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER) (AAXN)
72 pages · 4 arc beats · 2 loops
Axon Enterprise (formerly TASER) (AAXN)
Spruce Point Capital · 2019-06 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
4 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 72 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Setup & Stakes 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 24 hits — 0/5 slides
40% 2/5 slides 40% 2/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides — 0/5 slides
The Monster 15 slides 100% 15/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides · 103 hits — 0/15 slides
33.3% 5/15 slides 73.3% 11/15 slides 100% 15/15 slides 26.7% 4/15 slides The Struggle 20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides · 138 hits — 0/20 slides
15% 3/20 slides · 4 hits 70% 14/20 slides 100% 20/20 slides 20% 4/20 slides The Victory 32 slides 100% 32/32 slides 100% 32/32 slides · 217 hits — 0/32 slides
— 0/32 slides
81.3% 26/32 slides 100% 32/32 slides — 0/32 slides
Slide inventory
72 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The image is stylized to look like police body-cam footage, with the subject's shirt edited to read 'BUY MY STOCK'.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
03
Standard Spruce Point branding with logo and confidentiality footer.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
04
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, framing the company as a 'Strong Sell' with specific downside targets.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
05
This is a classic activist short-seller thesis slide, focusing on accounting irregularities and operational failures.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Setup & Stakes
06
The slide uses a classic activist short-thesis structure: market opportunity critique followed by governance/integrity critique.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
07
The slide uses a bulleted list to deconstruct the market's bullish thesis and replace it with a bearish valuation.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
08
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
09
The slide provides a narrative history of the company's evolution from TASER to Axon, supported by revenue growth charts and key performance indicators.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
10
The slide frames Axon's success as a result of early-mover advantage in niche markets rather than inherent superiority, highlighting emerging competition from Mcompare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
11
The slide uses a customer journey/process flow to highlight where Axon currently operates versus where they are attempting to expand.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
12
The slide uses a matrix to highlight Axon's lack of core CAD/RMS capabilities compared to its competitors.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
13
Includes a process diagram of CAD systems and a market structure chart showing tier-based competition.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
14
Includes a process diagram of investigative case management and a funding table for Mark43.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
15
The slide uses red 'X' marks to visually emphasize Axon's lack of activity in key software segments.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
16
The slide uses large red 'X' overlays to visually emphasize the failure of Axon's strategy. It contrasts a market structure chart with a table of competitor acqdiagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
17
The slide uses red boxes and lines to draw attention to specific inflated figures in Axon's TAM build-up.expose_contradiction
18
Uses a red arrow to visually connect the CEO's claims to the eventual financial impairment.expose_contradiction
19
The table contrasts financial growth metrics with qualitative disclosure failures over time.expose_contradiction
20
Uses a 'before/after' or 'expectation vs reality' framing to highlight management turnover.expose_contradiction
21
Includes a primary source document (resignation letter) as evidence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
22
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (tree logo).transition
23
The slide uses color-coded callouts to emphasize negative margin trends.analyze_data
24
The slide uses a red arrow and red boxes to emphasize the slowdown in Q1'19.diagnose_problem
25
The slide uses a bar chart to visually contrast historical cash flow performance against the current Q1 2019 outlier.expose_contradiction
26
The slide highlights a specific accounting treatment of employee stock awards as a financing cash flow, which the author argues should be operating.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
27
Uses direct excerpts from SEC filings to contrast the 2018 Q3 and 2018 10-K disclosures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
29
Uses a stock chart with annotations to highlight timing of events relative to price spikes.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
30
The slide uses red bars to highlight the final data point in each series, coinciding with the timing of the Spruce Point short call (marked by a star).cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
31
The slide uses a table to highlight the discrepancy between revenue growth and receivables growth, specifically pointing to the 'long-term' receivables account.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
32
Uses a direct quote comparison from 10-K filings to highlight accounting inconsistency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
33
The slide uses a sensitivity analysis approach to estimate revenue inflation and gross profit impact.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
34
Uses red arrows to highlight specific text in email screenshots.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
35
The slide uses a 'before-after' style layout to show two different contract examples (Lancaster County and Glynn County) that both exhibit the same accounting aexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
36
The slide uses a visual 'plus' and 'not equal' sign to highlight the mathematical failure to reconcile quarterly sums to the annual total.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
37
Uses red arrows to visually connect the guidance text to the actual spending text, emphasizing the discrepancy.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
38
Uses excerpts from legal filings to contradict company statements.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
39
Uses excerpts from 2018 and 2017 10-K filings to highlight the removal of specific overhead allocation language.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
40
The slide uses a bar chart to show historical vs projected margins and a table to contrast management's public statements with the reality of the Q1 2019 miss.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
41
Uses red arrows to highlight specific text in contract documents.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
42
Uses financial data from 2015-2018 to highlight a spike in inventory provisions, specifically calling out the VIEVU acquisition as a justification for the increexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
43
The slide uses a red box to highlight the missing 'Work-in-Process' line item in the 2016 disclosure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
44
Uses red underlining to highlight specific discrepancies in source documents.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
45
The slide uses a list of names to imply a pattern of management instability or potential internal control issues.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
46
The slide uses a guilt-by-association argument linking the Audit Chair's past employment at Arthur Andersen to Axon's aggressive accounting practices.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
48
The slide uses a chronological sequence of excerpts from SEC filings to demonstrate the omission of 'China' in later reports.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
49
The slide uses raw import data to challenge corporate narrative.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
50
The slide uses a table to highlight a discrepancy between company claims and shipping data.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
51
The slide uses a color-coded matrix to highlight scenarios where EBITDA impact exceeds 10%.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
53
The slide uses two distinct sensitivity tables to demonstrate that even under various pricing and adoption assumptions, the total addressable market is significquantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
54
Uses a table to demonstrate the deterioration of VIEVU's financial performance post-acquisition.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
55
The slide uses a table to highlight the discrepancy between claimed contingent consideration and the balance sheet entries.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
57
Uses an org-chart style diagram to illustrate family connections and roles.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
58
The slide uses a 'villain' framing to discredit the individuals by linking them to legal and ethical misconduct.introduce_nominees
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
59
Uses a collage of news headlines to frame the CEO as the central figure of a recurring ethical issue.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
60
Uses a three-column layout to present case studies of alleged corruption.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
61
The slide uses a primary source document (a letter) to substantiate claims of corporate misconduct.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
62
Uses visual evidence (news clippings and photos) to frame the CEO's behavior as unprofessional and indicative of poor governance.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
63
Includes a visual reference to a book cover titled 'The Perfect Stock' as evidence of historical manipulation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
64
The slide uses a combination of a bar chart and a data table to illustrate the trend of declining insider ownership and significant insider selling.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
66
The slide uses the correlation between retail client base and bullish ratings to discredit the consensus price target.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
67
The slide uses arrows to visually indicate the direction of ownership trends for each investor.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
68
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific companies (MACE Security, Applied Energetics) as examples of poor comparables.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
69
The slide contrasts current peer selection with a historical list from 2008 to show a shift in narrative.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
70
The slide argues that Axon's current valuation is inflated compared to its actual peer group.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
71
The slide uses a 'before-after' style comparison of current vs historical valuation metrics.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
72
The slide uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach to justify a bearish price target.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory