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Ben Axler · activist-deck

A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS)

20 pages · 4 arc beats · 0 loops

Activist-Deck Download JSON
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A.O. Smith Corporation (AOS)

Ben Axler · 2019-05
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 0 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 1
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

4
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 13 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Hook 1 slides 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides · 5 hits
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100% 1/1 slides
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Expose Contradiction 7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 52 hits
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100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides
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Preempt Rebuttal 1 slides 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides · 5 hits
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100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides
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Valuation Table 4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides · 26 hits
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100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides
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Slide inventory

20
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The image of a leaking/steaming water heater serves as a visual metaphor for the 'Strong Sell' thesis.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Hook
02
other
Open slide detail
03
The slide uses a comparison table to establish credibility by showing past successful short calls.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Preempt Rebuttal
04
The slide uses a two-column table to map specific concerns to the activist's perspective.frame_problem
Open slide detail
05
Contradicts management's optimistic statements about their China consumer brand with Chinese state media calls for a 'peoples war' and boycotts of US goods.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
06
The slide uses a peer comparison bar chart and a time-series bar chart to highlight margin anomalies.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
07
The slide uses a table to demonstrate a recurring discrepancy between forecasted and actual capex, framing it as a potential red flag.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
08
Uses red bars to highlight the most recent data point (Q1'19) and red stars to indicate the timing of the initial warning.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
09
The slide uses a direct comparison of text from a 10-Q and a 10-K to point out accounting inconsistencies.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
10
Uses red arrow and red text to highlight specific discrepancies in 10-K filings.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
11
Uses red boxes and arrows to highlight the contradiction between text and table data.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
12
The slide uses a red arrow graphic to emphasize the trend of 'Keeps Getting Worse'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
13
The slide uses a table to highlight discrepancies between disclosed Capex and estimated total costs, framing the spending as an anomaly.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
14
The slide uses a 'less' adjustment table to calculate organic growth, followed by a table detailing acquisition multiples.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
15
The slide argues that declining insider ownership indicates management is not aligned with shareholders and may be gaming the system.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
16
The slide uses a red box annotation on the SEC form to draw attention to the low share count.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
17
The slide highlights that AOS's valuation multiples are high despite significant exposure to emerging markets, which the author argues should command a discountcompare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Valuation Table
18
The slide uses a table to highlight a disconnect between analyst optimism and their lack of local market intelligence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Valuation Table
19
The slide uses red boxes to emphasize the negative change in fundamental holdings and the non-fundamental strategy of new buyers.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Valuation Table
20
The slide uses a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach, adjusting for illiquidity of cash in China and applying different multiples to regional business segments.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Valuation Table