Ben Axler · activist-deck
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD)
57 pages · 4 arc beats · 2 loops
Aerojet Rocketdyne Holdings, Inc. (AJRD)
Ben Axler · 2019-04 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
4 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 57 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
The Call 4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides · 16 hits — 0/4 slides
25% 1/4 slides 25% 1/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides — 0/4 slides
The Monster 8 slides 100% 8/8 slides 100% 8/8 slides · 48 hits — 0/8 slides
37.5% 3/8 slides 75% 6/8 slides · 7 hits 100% 8/8 slides 25% 2/8 slides The Struggle 28 slides 100% 28/28 slides 100% 28/28 slides · 203 hits — 0/28 slides
21.4% 6/28 slides · 7 hits 64.3% 18/28 slides 100% 28/28 slides — 0/28 slides
The Victory 17 slides 100% 17/17 slides 100% 17/17 slides · 111 hits — 0/17 slides
17.6% 3/17 slides 76.5% 13/17 slides 100% 17/17 slides 64.7% 11/17 slides Slide inventory
57 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
The visual metaphor of rocket engines hanging in a warehouse suggests industrial failure or stagnation.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
03
This slide serves as a credibility-building appendix page.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Call
05
The slide uses a classic activist short-seller structure: headline thesis followed by a detailed breakdown of fundamental business deterioration.frame_problem
06
The slide uses a structured list format to present multiple red flags, including executive turnover, M&A strategy, and aggressive revenue recognition.frame_problem
07
The slide uses a 'guilt by association' tactic, linking board members to past corporate failures (Miller Energy, United Industrial, School Specialty).name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
08
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, focusing on 'catalysts' (share sales) and 'valuation gaps' (hidden liabilities).frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
09
The slide uses a timeline-over-chart format to correlate specific corporate governance and financial events with stock price movements.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
10
The slide uses a 'Spruce Point Adj. Valuation' to demonstrate that the company's true leverage is significantly higher than reported by the Street.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
12
Includes a mix of product imagery, financial tables, and a competitor mapping table.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
13
Uses visual 'X' marks over headshots to indicate departures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
14
The slide uses a large red 'X' overlay to visually strike through the text of the removed competitive strengths.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
15
Uses a 'villain' framing (Blue Origin/SpaceX) to highlight the company's failure to compete.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
16
Uses LMT conference call transcripts and financial tables to build a bearish case on Aerojet's customer concentration.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
17
The slide uses quotes from Space News to build a case against the competitive viability of Aerojet Rocketdyne.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
18
The slide uses a structured list format to detail the FTC's rationale and the specific conditions imposed on the acquisition.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
19
Uses direct quotes from a regulatory filing to highlight a conflict between the FTC's stated goals and the actual market outcome.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
20
The slide uses a table to illustrate the loss of market share to competitors like Orbital ATK and Blue Origin.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
21
Includes a red box highlight on the total budget decline percentages.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
22
The slide uses a 'villain critique' structure to frame the SLS program as a liability for the company.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
23
Includes a table of prime contractors and a screenshot of a NASA contract release to support the thesis of revenue decline.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
24
The slide uses a table to highlight the deterioration of backlog quality over time.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
25
Uses a red box to highlight Q2 2018 and a red arrow to emphasize the decline in the following two quarters.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
26
Uses the 'Déjà vu' framing to establish a pattern of behavior in failing companies.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
27
The slide uses a combination of a press release screenshot and a financial table to highlight the poor performance of the acquired entity.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
28
Uses a timeline to show declining sales/deal value ratios over time.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
29
Spruce Point Capital Management branding (pine tree logo).transition
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
30
Uses direct quotes from the company's 10-K to expose internal control failures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
31
Includes a direct quote from a 10-K filing to support the argument.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
32
Uses a table to show declining inventory-to-backlog ratios and highlights missing 2018 data with '????'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
33
The slide uses a table to show that despite negative working capital, the ratios remain stable, preempting concerns about liquidity or accounting shifts.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
34
The slide uses a 'pro-forma' style adjustment to show what the balance sheet would look like without the revenue recognition change.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
35
The slide uses a red box to highlight the $0.0 figure in the 2018 total row.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
36
Uses a table to adjust reported cash flow and highlight the discrepancy in growth rates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
37
The slide uses a red box to highlight the discrepancy in FY 2018 figures between reported and adjusted metrics.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
38
Uses a 'Really?' callout to highlight the contradiction between past remediation claims and current audit status.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
40
Uses a table to compare historical bio text against current state license data.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
41
The slide uses a table to link specific directors to past failures, serving as a 'villain critique' to undermine the board's credibility.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
42
Includes a screenshot of a Sumzero investment post and excerpts from SEC press releases.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
43
The slide uses a red box to highlight the discrepancy between the investor-reported figure ($225.4M) and the management-compensation figure ($232.7M).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
44
The slide highlights the removal of strict financial thresholds for personal factor bonuses and the addition of vague 'Board approved modifications' to EBITDA.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
45
The slide contrasts the 2018 incentive structure (price-based) with the 2017 structure (financial metric-based).expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
46
Standard Spruce Point Capital Management section divider.transition
47
The slide uses SEC filing excerpts to support the thesis that management is offloading shares in a non-transparent manner while facing governance and tax issuespreempt_rebuttal
48
The slide uses a table to highlight the limited and potentially overly optimistic analyst coverage to set up a bearish thesis.preempt_rebuttal
49
The table uses red arrows to emphasize the decline in ownership for most fundamental investors and the AJRD Savings plan.compare_peers
50
Uses red boxes and blue lines to visually connect contradictory data points across different financial sources.expose_contradiction
51
The slide uses a 'fraud-exposure' style argument by highlighting hidden liabilities to challenge market valuation.preempt_rebuttal
52
Uses star icons to highlight the 'Spruce Point Adjusted' valuation point.show_valuation_bridge
53
The table includes a 'Max', 'Average', and 'Min' row for the peer group, followed by Aerojet's current and 'Adjusted' valuation metrics.compare_peers
54
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'Small Cap Peers' group and a blue line to strike through the comparison, indicating Spruce Point's disagreement with compare_peers
55
The slide uses a table to contrast historical performance with a recent negative outlier to suggest a trend of future disappointment.expose_contradiction
56
Includes detailed footnotes regarding real estate assets and liability adjustments.show_valuation_bridge
57
Includes a pig icon with 'Yup. Still A Pig.' caption, mocking management's rhetoric.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory