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Ben Axler · activist-deck

Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK)

46 pages · 5 arc beats · 3 loops

Activist-Deck Download JSON
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Weis Markets, Inc. (WMK)

Ben Axler · 2018-09
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 2
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

5
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 46 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem (Identify pain) 1 slides 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides · 6 hits
— 0/1 slides
100% 1/1 slides · 2 hits 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides 100% 1/1 slides Agitate (Make it worse) 11 slides 100% 11/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides · 68 hits
— 0/11 slides
— 0/11 slides
63.6% 7/11 slides 100% 11/11 slides · 19 hits 100% 11/11 slides · 22 hits Solution (Provide relief) 2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 15 hits
— 0/2 slides
— 0/2 slides
— 0/2 slides
100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides Expose contradiction 22 slides 100% 22/22 slides 100% 22/22 slides · 143 hits
— 0/22 slides
4.5% 1/22 slides 72.7% 16/22 slides 100% 22/22 slides · 40 hits 36.4% 8/22 slides · 16 hits Preempt rebuttal 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 71 hits
— 0/10 slides
10% 1/10 slides 90% 9/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 20 hits
— 0/10 slides

Slide inventory

46
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The slide uses visual metaphor to critique the company's pricing strategy.front_matter
Open slide detail
02
other
Open slide detail
03
Includes a disclaimer about research contribution to Prescience Point LLC.summarize
Open slide detail
04
Includes Spruce Point Capital Management logo (pine tree) and standard confidentiality footer.front_matter
Open slide detail
05
The slide uses a structured list format to present multiple pillars of a short thesis.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem (Identify pain)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
06
The slide uses a list-based structure to present a thesis-driven argument for an activist short position.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
07
The slide uses a mix of market data and Spruce Point's own forensic analysis to argue that the company is overvalued.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
08
The slide uses a stock price chart with callouts to highlight specific dates and events that the author claims are misleading or problematic.frame_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
09
transition
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
10
The slide uses a structured table to highlight competitive disadvantages across multiple operational areas.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
11
The slide uses a color-coded matrix to visualize performance across multiple categories, with Weis Markets highlighted by a red box.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
12
Uses geographic maps to illustrate competitive saturation and store footprint differences.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
13
The slide includes a red box highlighting the 'Violation(s)' column and a detailed callout box showing specific inspector comments for one location.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
14
Includes images of FDA Form 483 inspection reports.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
15
The slide uses a table to highlight operational failures in food safety and labeling.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
16
The slide outlines the methodology and findings of a proprietary price check.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
17
The slide uses a grid of product photos with price tags to refute management's claim that they cannot track retail pricing impacts.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
18
The table includes a specific callout for YoY average price change and a summary of the average premium for 2017 and 2018.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
19
The slide uses a table to show quarterly YoY growth across four metrics, with annotations highlighting specific periods of decline and acquisition impact.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
20
Data source: Earnest Research. Note on Lidl entry timing included.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate (Make it worse)Loop · Cost Of Inaction
21
Data source: Earnest Research.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
22
The slide uses a map to visualize competitive density and proximity, reinforcing the thesis that the new location is poorly positioned.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
23
Spruce Point Capital Management branding.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
24
The slide uses red boxes to highlight specific periods of performance decline.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
25
The slide uses a 'Stopped Disclosing' label to visually demonstrate a decline in transparency, framing it as a red flag for financial health.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
26
Uses red arrows to highlight the negative growth trends in 2017.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
27
Uses direct quotes from SEC filings to highlight management's inconsistency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
28
The slide uses a before-after comparison to show that the company reverted to poor disclosure practices after an initial SEC intervention.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
29
The slide uses a table to demonstrate the impact of reclassifying vendor credits on gross margin figures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
30
The slide uses a side-by-side comparison of two cash flow statements to demonstrate the impact of the accounting reclassification.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
31
The slide uses a comparison frame to highlight an outlier accounting practice.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
32
The slide uses a 'before-after' logic to expose accounting manipulation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
33
The slide highlights how accounting changes mask the true decline in cash flow.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
34
The slide uses a table to cast doubt on the company's governance by highlighting auditor churn.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose contradiction
35
transition
Open slide detail
36
Uses direct quotes from proxy statements to expose management behavior.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
37
The slide critiques the company's non-standard MROIC calculation (20x rent multiple) and uses it to demonstrate poor relative performance.compare_peers
Open slide detail
38
The slide uses a table to highlight the lack of equity ownership among the executive team and board members.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
39
transition
Open slide detail
40
The table uses a bridge-style logic to adjust 2017 results to a 2018 pro forma estimate.analyze_data
Open slide detail
41
The slide uses a red arrow to draw attention to the 'Positive Business Outlook' metric.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
42
Uses red arrows to highlight underperformance of Weis Markets (WMK) relative to peers.compare_peers
Open slide detail
43
The slide uses red boxes to highlight Weis' negative organic sales growth and high valuation multiples relative to the peer group.compare_peers
Open slide detail
44
The slide uses a peer benchmark table to argue that Weis Markets' suboptimal performance warrants a discount relative to industry M&A multiples.compare_peers
Open slide detail
45
The slide uses a P/E multiple valuation approach to justify a significant downside target.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)Loop · Quick Win Big Bet
46
Uses a vertical list of red arrows to emphasize the negative points.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Solution (Provide relief)Loop · Quick Win Big Bet