Momo, Inc. (MOMO)

Ben Axler · 2018-06
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 3 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

7
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

70
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The slide uses a smartphone mockup to frame the report, featuring icons related to gambling, legal issues, and VIE structures.front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Hook
03
The slide serves as a credibility-building appendix, highlighting the firm's history and past successful activist campaigns.summarize
04
Includes Spruce Point Capital Management logo (pine tree) and standard confidentiality footer.front_matter
05
Uses a three-part color-coded framework to contrast perspectives.frame_situation
06
This is a classic activist short-seller thesis slide framing the 'problem' as a lack of proper diligence by retail investors.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Statement
07
The slide uses a 'villain' framing by highlighting how Momo exploits regulatory loopholes to disadvantage retail investors.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Aha Moment
08
Uses a before-after-bridge style logic to contrast challenges with their investigative approach.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Aha Moment
09
The slide highlights concerns regarding the Tantan acquisition funding and potential shareholder dilution.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Aha Moment
10
Uses red flag icons to denote specific areas of concern.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Aha Moment
11
The slide uses red flag icons to denote specific areas of concern.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Aha Moment
12
Uses red flag icons to denote specific areas of concern.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Aha Moment
13
The slide uses a series of bulleted arguments to build a case for business deterioration, culminating in a mention of regulatory/legal issues.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Aha Moment
14
The slide uses bolding and underlining to emphasize accounting concerns and negative outlooks.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Aha Moment
15
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, combining qualitative reputational risks with quantitative data points on KOL abandonment and insider selling.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Aha Moment
16
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
17
Includes a screenshot of the official Chinese regulatory notice with English translation/annotation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
18
The slide uses screenshots of Chinese corporate registry data (Qixin) to prove that Momo retroactively corrected financial filings and ownership transfer dates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
19
Uses a red circle annotation to draw attention to the specific date of resignation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
20
The slide uses a table to highlight the discrepancy between disclosed and undisclosed entities, supported by an organizational chart.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
21
The slide uses a red box to visually isolate the 'Undisclosed' entities from the 'Disclosed' ones.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
22
The slide uses a color-coded organizational chart to distinguish between disclosed (green) and undisclosed (red) entities.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
23
Uses a process diagram to contrast the 'official' flow with the 'actual' (alleged) flow.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
24
Includes a screenshot of a website and a flow chart showing ownership structure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
25
The slide uses red boxes to highlight the specific data points that contradict each other.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
26
Uses red boxes to highlight specific mismatched figures in the tables.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
27
Uses visual evidence (brochure vs. Tianyancha registry) to prove undisclosed related party ownership.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
28
Includes a flow chart showing disclosed vs. undisclosed entities and a table highlighting suspicious financial figures.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Iceberg
29
Includes a photo of the alleged building and a callout box for the address.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
30
Uses investigative photography to cast doubt on the legitimacy of a business entity.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
31
The diagram illustrates a complex corporate structure linking Momo to Pokermaster through various entities and app stores.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
32
Includes a red circle annotation highlighting the connection between Wuxi Jianguo and Wuxi Yilumi.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
33
Uses WHOIS records and IP hosting data to link the company to gambling sites.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
34
Includes a screenshot of a Facebook page as evidence.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
35
Uses photographic evidence to support the claim of a gambling-themed corporate event.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
36
Uses quotes from earnings calls to highlight management's lack of integration plans and analyst skepticism.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
37
Includes a table of financing rounds and a diagram of the ownership structure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
38
The slide uses red circles and lines to visually connect the conflicting share counts (22,272,730) attributed to both Matrix and Purple Sky.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
39
Includes a red oval annotation highlighting the divergence between reported and third-party data trends.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
40
Includes a specific quote from a Q3 2017 earnings call to highlight the contradiction.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
41
Uses direct quotes from earnings calls contrasted with consultant interview findings.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
42
The slide uses a 'Red Flag' framing to highlight regulatory risk.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
43
Includes a quote from Chen Taifeng regarding the difficulty of content auditing.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
44
Uses testimonial-style quotes from anonymous agency sources to build a negative narrative.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
45
The slide uses a table to list specific dates, companies, and the outcomes of regulatory crackdowns.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
46
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
47
The slide uses a narrative structure to frame the company's history as a series of growth cycles followed by fatigue, leading to the current critique of its bussummarize
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
48
The slide uses a dual-axis combo chart (bar + line) to show the relationship between absolute volume and YoY growth/conversion rates.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
49
Includes three charts: a dual-axis combo chart for MAU, a bar chart for ARPPU, and a stacked bar chart for revenue composition.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
50
The slide uses quotes from earnings calls to highlight the shift in strategy and the contradiction between past and present business models.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
51
Uses a 'Spruce Point Interpretation' callout box to frame the transcript excerpts.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
52
Uses a side-by-side comparison of primary source text and analyst interpretation to expose management's pivot away from organic growth.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
53
Uses a side-by-side comparison of management quotes and activist commentary to expose contradictions or strategic weaknesses.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
54
The slide uses a 'demand list' structure to highlight information asymmetry.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
55
The table provides primary research data supporting the activist thesis regarding Momo's business.appendix
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
56
The slide uses a structured table to link specific business risks (Fee Sharing, Consolidation, Regulation) to financial outcomes.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
57
The slide uses quotes from 'Large Agency #3' and 'Super Agency #7' to support the thesis of opaque and discriminatory practices.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
58
Uses direct quotes from anonymous agency sources to build a case against Momo's transparency.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
59
Uses quotes from anonymous agencies to support the thesis of revenue manipulation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
60
The slide uses testimonials from various agencies to build a case for Momo's declining market position and margin pressure.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
61
Includes a red box highlight on the '% Rev to Platform' column in the bottom table.size_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
62
The slide uses direct quotes from anonymous industry sources to damage the company's reputation and highlight regulatory risk.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
63
The slide uses primary research (interviews) to expose negative sentiment and competitive disadvantages for Momo.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
64
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
65
Uses a classic 'contrast-pairs' framework to systematically dismantle the bull case.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
66
The slide uses a table to expose the consensus bias of sell-side analysts.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
67
The slide argues that the lack of institutional ownership, particularly by tech funds, implies a retail-heavy investor base.expose_gap
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
68
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 2017-2018 selling activity of key executives and directors.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
69
The slide uses red boxes to highlight Spruce Point's specific forecast columns for FY18 and FY19.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Expose ContradictionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
70
The slide uses a standard financial model buildup to justify a short thesis price target.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction