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Kerrisdale Capital · research-note

ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)

30 pages · 3 arc beats · 2 loops

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ACM Research, Inc. (ACMR)

Kerrisdale Capital · 2025-01
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 1
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 27 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 26 hits
— 0/5 slides
60% 3/5 slides · 4 hits
— 0/5 slides
100% 5/5 slides
— 0/5 slides
Agitate 10 slides 100% 10/10 slides 100% 10/10 slides · 61 hits
— 0/10 slides
50% 5/10 slides
— 0/10 slides
100% 10/10 slides
— 0/10 slides
Solution 12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides · 90 hits
— 0/12 slides
50% 6/12 slides · 9 hits 50% 6/12 slides 100% 12/12 slides 66.7% 8/12 slides · 10 hits

Slide inventory

30
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The slide uses a narrative structure to justify a long position based on geopolitical tailwinds and valuation arbitrage.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
02
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
03
The slide provides a narrative summary of the investment thesis, focusing on historical performance and macro-economic drivers.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
04
The slide outlines the investment thesis for ACMR, focusing on the shift toward domestic Chinese semiconductor equipment self-sufficiency and the company's expasummarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
05
The slide argues that ACMR is undervalued across multiple valuation approaches, including peer multiples and DCF.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Problem
06
The slide discusses specific M&A precedents (Applied Materials/Semitool, Lam Research/SEZ, Lam Research/Novellus) to justify the acquisition thesis.propose_solution
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
07
The slide provides a detailed financial table and narrative context on the company's dual-listing structure and competitive positioning.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
08
The slide combines a valuation discrepancy argument with a macro-thematic section on Chinese semiconductor self-sufficiency.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
09
The slide discusses the impact of government policy on domestic WFE consumption in China, specifically referencing ACMR.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
10
Includes a table comparing revenue growth of Global Big Four vs Chinese Listed Suppliers from 2018-2023.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
11
Includes a table detailing market share and localization rates across various semiconductor manufacturing segments.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
12
The slide highlights ACMR's competitive R&D investment levels and technical differentiation in megasonic cleaning.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
13
The slide includes a table summarizing SAM expansion by market segment, including Advanced Packaging, ECP, Furnace, Track, and PECVD.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
14
The slide provides a deep dive into specific product lines and market positioning for ACMR.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
15
The slide provides qualitative and quantitative status updates on ACMR's product portfolio expansion.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Agitate
16
The table highlights ACMR's current penetration into the top 20 global semiconductor capital spenders, emphasizing the 'virtuous cycle' of customer acquisition.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
17
The slide discusses geographic diversification of ACMR's customer base, specifically focusing on Intel (US), SK Hynix (South Korea), and UMC (Taiwan).summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
18
The slide includes a table of customer engagements by region and commentary on ACMR's long-term revenue goals.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
19
The slide argues that concerns about China WFE market declines are misplaced for ACMR due to its focus on trailing-edge nodes and strong demand in the cleaning compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Solution
20
The slide argues that 'first tool' shipments are currently sitting in inventory and will convert to revenue, providing a buffer for future performance.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
21
Includes two tables: one for 2024/2025 revenue analysis and one for multi-year forecast variance vs consensus.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
22
The slide combines financial projections with a qualitative assessment of geopolitical risk.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
23
The slide uses historical revenue data to counter the bear thesis that export restrictions would cripple Chinese semiconductor fab capacity growth.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
24
The slide serves as a transition from addressing historical short-seller concerns to presenting a valuation thesis.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
25
The table segments companies into Small Cap WFE, Large Cap WFE, Japanese WFE, and Chinese WFE, with ACMR at the bottom.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Cost Of Inaction
26
The table compares a sum-of-the-parts valuation (stake in ACMS) against a DCF-derived future earnings valuation.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
27
Includes a detailed DCF table, valuation bridge, share derivation, and key assumptions.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · SolutionLoop · Quick Win Big Bet
28
front_matter
Open slide detail
29
Page number 29 at bottom.other
Open slide detail
30
front_matter
Open slide detail