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Kerrisdale Capital · research-note

Carvana Co. (CVNA)

24 pages · 3 arc beats · 2 loops

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Carvana Co. (CVNA)

Kerrisdale Capital · 2023-06
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 1
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 18 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
The Monster 7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 60 hits
— 0/7 slides
— 0/7 slides
42.9% 3/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 85.7% 6/7 slides The Struggle 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 40 hits
— 0/5 slides
— 0/5 slides
60% 3/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides
— 0/5 slides
The Victory 6 slides 100% 6/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides · 41 hits
— 0/6 slides
16.7% 1/6 slides 33.3% 2/6 slides 100% 6/6 slides
— 0/6 slides

Slide inventory

24
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
This is a classic short-thesis research note cover/summary page.frame_problem
Open slide detail
02
front_matter
Open slide detail
03
The slide uses bolded lead-in phrases for each paragraph to summarize the core argument of that section.summarize
Open slide detail
04
Includes a detailed capitalization table and a 5-year financial summary (2020A-2024E).summarize
Open slide detail
05
This is a text-heavy research note page from Kerrisdale Capital analyzing Carvana's financial and operational health.summarize
Open slide detail
06
This is a text-heavy research note page detailing the company's recent history and financial distress.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
07
This is a research note page from Kerrisdale Capital, acting as a short-seller thesis document.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Monster
08
The slide uses external data from Cox Automotive to support a thesis about vehicle pricing trends and their impact on company financial reporting.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Domino Effect
09
The slide uses a bridge-style reconciliation table to strip out non-recurring items from GPU.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Domino Effect
10
The slide uses a detailed debt schedule to challenge management's liquidity narrative.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Cost Of Inaction
11
The slide uses a table to highlight the discrepancy between reported liquidity and actual usable cash, followed by a narrative analysis of inventory age constraexpose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Cost Of Inaction
12
The slide critiques the company's reliance on asset-backed financing for liquidity, specifically questioning the valuation and encumbrance of real estate assetsdiagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Cost Of Inaction
13
The slide uses a narrative of 'Death (Delayed) by a Thousand Cuts' to frame the company's financial trajectory.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The MonsterLoop · Cost Of Inaction
14
The slide uses a scenario table to demonstrate that Carvana's current operating levels are insufficient to cover fixed charges, highlighting a gap between managanalyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
15
The slide highlights a correlation between reduced advertising spend and declining website traffic.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
16
The slide uses a combination of anecdotal evidence from former employees and a critique of the company's algorithmic business model to build a bearish case.name_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
17
Uses a 'quote-counter-quote' structure to expose a contradiction between management narrative and operational reality.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
18
The slide argues that Carvana's unique selling propositions have been commoditized by competitors and that its centralized logistics model is fundamentally flawname_villain
Open slide detailBeat · The Struggle
19
Includes a quote from a former executive and a quote from Carvana's CEO to support the bearish thesis.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
20
Contains three charts sourced from Cox Automotive.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
21
The chart highlights a significant drop in days of supply for 2023 compared to previous years, specifically noting a -13% year-over-year change.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
22
Includes market cap, TEV, EV/Sales, EV/Gross Profit, EV/EBITDA, FCF Yield, and Dividend Yield.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
23
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory
24
other
Open slide detailBeat · The Victory