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Kerrisdale Capital · research-note

CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)

29 pages · 4 arc beats · 2 loops

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CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)

Kerrisdale Capital · 2019-07
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 1
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

4
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 11 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem Statement 2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 17 hits
— 0/2 slides
50% 1/2 slides · 2 hits 50% 1/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides Villain Critique 5 slides 100% 5/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 36 hits
— 0/5 slides
20% 1/5 slides · 2 hits 80% 4/5 slides 100% 5/5 slides · 7 hits 100% 5/5 slides Expose Contradiction 2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 14 hits
— 0/2 slides
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100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 4 hits 100% 2/2 slides Thesis Headline 2 slides 100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 18 hits
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50% 1/2 slides
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100% 2/2 slides 100% 2/2 slides · 4 hits

Slide inventory

29
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
This is a classic activist short-seller research note cover page.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
02
front_matter
Open slide detail
03
This is a short-seller research note from Kerrisdale Capital.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
04
The slide argues that AlloSure has high false negative rates for subclinical rejection and that its commercial success is driven by regulatory loopholes rather diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
05
This is a page from a research report rather than a standard presentation slide, containing dense narrative text and footnotes.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
06
The slide uses the NKF guidelines to argue that AlloSure's market is smaller than claimed by CareDx.expose_gap
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
07
This is a text-heavy research note slide from Kerrisdale Capital.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
08
Includes a table summarizing capitalization and historical financial results (2016-TTM).establish_context
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
09
The slide highlights a diagnostic gap in transplant monitoring, setting up a potential need for a more sensitive/specific diagnostic test.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Cost Of Inaction
10
The slide is a text-heavy research note from Kerrisdale Capital.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem StatementLoop · Cost Of Inaction
11
The slide provides a critical narrative on the efficacy of dd-cfDNA testing, highlighting the gap between academic hope and clinical utility.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
12
This is a research note from Kerrisdale Capital criticizing CareDx's AlloSure product, citing clinical literature and expert opinion.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Villain CritiqueLoop · Cost Of Inaction
13
This is a research note from Kerrisdale Capital critiquing a medical diagnostic product.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Villain CritiqueLoop · Cost Of Inaction
14
Kerrisdale Capital research note criticizing CareDx's AlloSure product efficacy.expose_gap
Open slide detailBeat · Villain CritiqueLoop · Cost Of Inaction
15
The slide argues that AlloSure is ineffective for TCMR detection, rendering it useless as a screening tool compared to cheaper alternatives.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Villain CritiqueLoop · Cost Of Inaction
16
Critique of CareDx's AlloSure product, focusing on market size limitations and clinical study failures.expose_gap
Open slide detailBeat · Villain CritiqueLoop · Cost Of Inaction
17
The slide uses a box plot to demonstrate the lack of statistical separation between 'No rejection' and 'CMR' groups.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
18
The slide presents specific clinical data points (sample sizes, hit rates, false positives) to undermine the clinical validity of the AlloSure test.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
19
The slide uses data to challenge the clinical utility and market size of the AlloSure test.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
20
The slide uses a narrative structure to undermine the company's growth story by framing it as a 'house of cards'.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Thesis HeadlineLoop · Cost Of Inaction
21
The slide argues that CareDx effectively monetized the research process itself, creating a conflict of interest and a circular revenue model.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Thesis HeadlineLoop · Cost Of Inaction
22
The slide uses a footnote to perform a 'gap analysis' between management's cumulative patient claims and the quarterly growth figures.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
23
This is a research note page from Kerrisdale Capital, focusing on competitive analysis and product obsolescence.name_villain
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
24
The slide discusses the impact of PAMA rules on Medicare reimbursement and the potential for price competition between Natera and CareDx.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
25
This is a research note from Kerrisdale Capital criticizing CareDx's market sizing methodology.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
26
This is a text-heavy research note page from a Kerrisdale Capital report.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
27
The slide uses a 'Valuing CareDx like Natera' comparison to justify a -70% downside estimate.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detail
28
other
Open slide detail
29
other
Open slide detail