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Muddy Waters Research · activist-deck

Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

51 pages · 5 arc beats · 2 loops

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)

Muddy Waters Research · 2023-12
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 2
— No image bound to this slide. Wire up imgproxy to display the rendered slide JPEG.
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Deck intelligence map

5
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 20 total
Metadata
Components
Metrics
Tools
Frameworks
Beats
Loops
Problem Identification 3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides · 11 hits
— 0/3 slides
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100% 3/3 slides
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Complication 3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides · 14 hits
— 0/3 slides
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33.3% 1/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides
— 0/3 slides
Expose Contradiction 7 slides 100% 7/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides · 42 hits
— 0/7 slides
— 0/7 slides
28.6% 2/7 slides 100% 7/7 slides
— 0/7 slides
Thesis Headline 3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides · 13 hits
— 0/3 slides
— 0/3 slides
33.3% 1/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides 100% 3/3 slides Preempt Rebuttal 4 slides 100% 4/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides · 14 hits
— 0/4 slides
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50% 2/4 slides 100% 4/4 slides
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Slide inventory

51
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
The use of the Wile E. Coyote cartoon is a visual metaphor for an impending 'cliff' or disaster.front_matter
Open slide detail
02
Standard legal boilerplate for activist short-seller reports.other
Open slide detail
03
This is a classic activist short thesis slide, framing the problem as a combination of financial engineering (swaps) and fundamental credit risk.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
04
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
05
This slide provides the foundational context for the activist thesis by explaining the core mechanics of the target company's lending business.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Problem Identification
06
The slide uses a causal chain to explain why BXMT is vulnerable to current macro conditions.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
07
Includes two charts: one showing global CRE debt maturities and another showing loss severity rates for office vs. non-office properties.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
08
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Complication
09
The slide uses the 'extending and pretending' idiom to describe loan modifications.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
10
This slide outlines a bearish thesis on BXMT, focusing on credit risk, liquidity, and under-provisioning.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
11
The slide uses a logical chain to demonstrate that current NOI/Debt ratios are insufficient to cover the implied interest rates once swaps expire.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
12
other
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
13
The slide emphasizes the representativeness of the sample data and the use of external CRE databases to estimate property-level metrics like vacancies and cap rsummarize
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
14
Includes property photo, loan terms, historical performance metrics (NOI, DSCR, Occupancy), and a business plan summary.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
15
The slide uses a specific definition of '6A' watchlist status to imply material risk to investors.expose_contradiction
Open slide detailBeat · Expose Contradiction
16
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Thesis HeadlineLoop · Zoom In
17
present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Thesis HeadlineLoop · Zoom In
18
The slide highlights two groups of borrowers (Group A and others) and their sensitivity to SOFR rates.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Thesis HeadlineLoop · Zoom In
19
The table highlights the inability of specific real estate assets to maintain positive coverage ratios under rising interest rate scenarios.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detailBeat · Preempt Rebuttal
20
The table highlights that as SOFR increases, the interest rates for these properties exceed their NOI/Debt yields, suggesting potential insolvency or inability analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Preempt Rebuttal
21
This is a key analytical slide in an activist short report.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Preempt Rebuttal
22
quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · Preempt Rebuttal
23
This slide explains the logic behind a specific quantitative estimate used in the activist report.analyze_data
Open slide detail
24
transition
Open slide detail
25
The slide uses a 'bad and worse' framing to highlight the lack of viable options for the company.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
26
The slide uses a methodology of applying market cap rates to LTM NOIs to derive asset values, highlighting significant potential impairments in the loan portfolanalyze_data
Open slide detail
27
The slide uses a 'Muddy Waters Research' branding and highlights a discrepancy between book value and market value, suggesting over-leveraging or asset impairmeexpose_contradiction
Open slide detail
28
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'DBRS Morningstar As-Is LTV (%)' column to draw attention to high leverage ratios.preempt_rebuttal
Open slide detail
29
transition
Open slide detail
30
The slide highlights a specific impairment reserve rate of ~23% for risk rating 5 loans.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
31
The slide uses specific financial figures to contrast reported reserves with estimated actual impairments.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
32
Uses specific loan groupings (Group A and Group B) to demonstrate the discrepancy between interest coverage ability and assigned risk ratings.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
33
The slide uses a red box to highlight the 'As-Is LTV (%)' column and red arrows to point out specific '2 rated' and '3 rated' loans.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
34
The slide uses a 'Recall that' structure to build a case for accounting manipulation.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
35
transition
Open slide detail
36
The slide uses a list-based format to present a series of bearish arguments regarding BXMT's financial health.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
37
The slide highlights the negative impact on dividends per share due to interest rate increases and NOI shortfalls.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
38
The slide highlights a significant reduction in dividend per share under bear case interest rate assumptions.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Cost Of Inaction
39
The slide uses a 'CYA' (Cover Your Assets) framing to imply the company is preemptively disclosing risks to mitigate liability.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
40
diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
41
summarize
Open slide detail
42
appendix
Open slide detail
43
The slide uses two side-by-side data tables to show the progression of property performance metrics over time.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
44
The slide uses a stacking plan and photos to prove that significant space is available for sublease, contradicting the reported vacancy metrics.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
45
Includes a screenshot of a news article as evidence of the tenant exit risk.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
46
Includes screenshots of Cushman & Wakefield listings and WeWork marketing copy to expose discrepancies.diagnose_problem
Open slide detail
47
Uses news clippings to support the narrative of a 'miraculous' lease expansion by a Blackstone-backed entity.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
48
The slide compares two different loan tranches (BXMT 2020 FL-2 vs FL-3) for the same property to show the deterioration of financial metrics over time.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
49
Uses a quote from the New York Times to undermine the sponsor's narrative.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
50
Uses a screenshot of a news article to contradict the 'Fully Leased' claim.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail
51
Uses a Washington Post article screenshot to support the bearish thesis on BXMT's exposure.expose_contradiction
Open slide detail