David Einhorn · conference-presentation
Assured Guaranty (AGO)
63 pages · 0 arc beats · 0 loops
Assured Guaranty (AGO)
David Einhorn · 2018-04 arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 0 LOOPS
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Deck intelligence map
1 coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON
Narrative range 63 total
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Whole deck 63 slides 100% 63/63 slides 100% 63/63 slides · 369 hits — 0/63 slides
31.7% 20/63 slides · 23 hits 27% 17/63 slides — 0/63 slides
— 0/63 slides
Slide inventory
63 every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
This slide functions as a direct response to a press release issued by the target company (AGO) following the Sohn Investment Conference presentation.preempt_rebuttal
02
Includes a specific note below the disclaimer box regarding the presenter's current portfolio position.front_matter
03
The slide uses a personal anecdote to establish credibility and set the stage for a short-selling thesis.cite_precedent
04
The slide uses the cover of David Einhorn's book 'Fooling Some of the People All of the Time' to establish credibility and set the stage for a new short thesis.frame_situation
05
The 'melting ice cube' is a classic financial metaphor for a business with a finite, wasting asset base.frame_problem
06
Includes a cartoon illustrating the concept of 'AAA status' as a form of validation.establish_context
07
The slide uses a cartoon to set a narrative tone about the historical success and eventual downfall of bond insurance.establish_context
08
The slide uses a political cartoon as a metaphor for market bubbles and corporate risk-taking.frame_situation
09
The slide uses a screenshot of a Moody's document as primary evidence for the historical shift in rating methodology.cite_precedent
10
The chart uses a dual-axis combination of bar (issuance/volume) and line (penetration percentage).analyze_data
11
The slide includes a small table overlay on the chart with current price, market value, and S&P rating.analyze_data
12
The slide uses the 'Weeble' metaphor (a toy that wobbles but doesn't fall down) to describe the company's resilience during the financial crisis.analyze_data
13
The slide uses a simple table to demonstrate the net impact of recoveries on claims paid.expose_contradiction
14
The chart uses a metaphor of an 'ice cube' melting to describe the portfolio amortization.analyze_data
15
The slide uses a satirical cartoon to frame the company's response to a credit rating downgrade as petulant or defensive.expose_contradiction
16
The chart uses a metaphor 'Ice chips combined make a slushy' to describe the consolidation of competitors.analyze_data
17
The slide uses a metaphor (Sisyphus) to describe a business in a state of perpetual, futile decline.diagnose_problem
18
The slide highlights the impact of legal recoveries and mark-to-market reversals on the income statement.analyze_data
19
Uses a Monopoly 'Chance' card illustration to metaphorically represent the loss of a revenue stream.diagnose_problem
20
The slide uses a Beatles lyric as a title to imply that the high income levels of the past are unlikely to return.analyze_data
21
The slide uses a dual-axis chart to correlate share count reduction with buyback activity.analyze_data
22
The cartoon depicts a businessman being flattened by a steamroller, a common metaphor for 'picking up pennies in front of a steamroller'.frame_problem
23
The slide uses a 'No room for losses' headline to frame the high leverage ratios as a critical risk factor.analyze_data
24
The slide uses a pun in the title to highlight the outsized exposure to New Jersey state debt.diagnose_problem
25
The slide uses a pun on 'Notorious B.I.G.' to describe the portfolio of 'Below Investment Grade' assets.analyze_data
26
The slide uses a quote from a 10-K to point out a potential conflict or unusual practice in credit rating methodology.expose_contradiction
27
The illustration depicts a person inflating a large letter 'A', symbolizing the artificial inflation of grades.expose_contradiction
28
The slide highlights a contradiction between internal company ratings and external credit agency ratings for defaulted debt.expose_contradiction
30
The slide uses a direct quote from a financial filing to support a claim about how internal credit ratings impact balance sheet reserves.cite_precedent
31
The slide clarifies that the $1.3B expected loss is offset by $572M in salvage recoverables, resulting in a net reserve of $844M.analyze_data
32
The melting ice block is a visual metaphor, likely representing a crisis or economic instability.transition
33
The slide uses a cultural reference to West Side Story to frame a narrative about economic or demographic challenges.other
35
The chart uses a dual-axis combination of bar (GNP and Debt) and line (Debt/GNP ratio) to illustrate fiscal deterioration.analyze_data
37
The slide provides a high-level overview of the legislative mechanism used to manage Puerto Rico's debt restructuring.establish_context
38
The chart illustrates the long-term erosion of credit confidence prior to the 2017 default.diagnose_problem
39
The slide uses a juxtaposition of a pop culture reference (West Side Story) and a photo of hurricane damage to frame the severity of the event.establish_context
41
The slide uses a benchmark-based methodology to estimate debt capacity.analyze_data
42
The slide highlights that 30% of AGO's exposure is in General Obligation bonds, which are constitutionally prioritized.analyze_data
43
The slide explains the mechanism of public corporations issuing debt supported by specific revenue streams and their vulnerability to clawbacks.analyze_data
44
The slide highlights that total exposure exceeds the company's entire capital base.analyze_data
45
The slide calculates total losses based on different recovery assumptions for AGO's insured debt portfolio.analyze_data
46
The slide contrasts market pricing with fiscal plan assumptions to quantify financial exposure.diagnose_problem
47
The slide provides a quantitative breakdown of debt categories and their associated financial risks.analyze_data
48
The slide uses a stacked card visual to represent multiple ongoing legal disputes.analyze_data
49
The slide uses a satirical cartoon to frame the argument that the company's stated reserves are inadequate compared to projected losses.expose_contradiction
50
The slide uses a dual-axis chart to show the divergence between market reality (falling bond prices) and company reserve adjustments.expose_contradiction
51
The slide uses a skeptical tone to question the company's accounting assumptions regarding Puerto Rico exposure.expose_contradiction
52
The slide uses a waterfall-style logic to adjust the initial S&P capacity figure.analyze_data
54
The slide highlights a discrepancy where internal ratings are generally higher than external credit ratings.analyze_data
58
The slide argues that the company has insufficient loss reserves relative to its high-risk exposure.analyze_data
59
The slide uses a cartoon to lighten the tone while introducing serious financial risk concerns.frame_problem
61
The slide highlights specific state-level credit risks for AGO, contrasting Illinois and New Jersey.analyze_data
62
The slide uses a cartoon to frame a critique of a company's financial health and the necessity of regulatory oversight.expose_contradiction
63
The slide uses a quote to imply accounting impropriety or 'dis-engineering' at AGO.expose_contradiction