CONSOL Energy (CNX)

David Einhorn · 2015-11
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 2 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

3
coverage by narrative range · generated from this deck JSON

Slide inventory

107
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
01
Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
02
other
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
03
The slide uses a line chart with an added arrow annotation to emphasize the downward trend.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
04
The slide serves as a post-mortem or confession of a poor investment decision.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
05
The slide presents a standard valuation bridge calculation.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Attention
06
The title is a pun on 'cold cocked'.compare_peers
07
analyze_data
08
The slide uses a pun in the title and an Economist magazine cover to illustrate the decline of coal due to market and regulatory pressures.analyze_data
09
The chart highlights the specific decline of the coal segment (blue) over time.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Need
10
The title is a play on 'colonoscopy', implying a deep, perhaps unpleasant, examination of the coal industry.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · NeedLoop · Cost Of Inaction
11
The slide uses a 'Strange Brew' comic strip to provide a lighthearted transition or emphasis point.filler
Open slide detailBeat · NeedLoop · Cost Of Inaction
12
The slide argues for the continued necessity of coal supply despite energy transition trends.quantify_opportunity
Open slide detailBeat · NeedLoop · Cost Of Inaction
13
The slide highlights the regional nature of the coal industry due to shipping costs.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Need
14
The slide uses a pun on 'hiking' to transition from a political scandal context to the topic of Appalachian coal.filler
Open slide detailBeat · Need
15
Uses a humorous cartoon to frame the 'pain' of the industry.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Need
16
The cartoon serves as a metaphor for market consolidation.filler
17
Includes a historical photo of a Consolidation Coal Co. facility.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
18
The slide uses a Minecraft screenshot as a humorous or illustrative visual for 'mining'.summarize
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
19
compare_peers
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
20
Slide 20 of a presentation, likely from an investor deck.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
21
The chart highlights a significant drop in demand, with a specific annotation pointing to the 2025 forecast.diagnose_problem
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
22
The chart uses a supply curve (cost vs. cumulative production) to demonstrate competitive advantage and market equilibrium.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
23
The cartoon depicts the Grim Reaper at the door, with the homeowner asking if he is there to do the hedges, serving as a metaphor for avoiding an inevitable negframe_situation
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
24
The slide highlights the impact of zero-based budgeting on operational costs.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
25
The slide includes a specific EBITDA projection and a source citation.analyze_data
Open slide detailLoop · Hypothesis Test
26
The slide provides a high-level summary of a DCF model, including reserve volume, pricing, costs, capex, and WACC, resulting in a $3 billion valuation.show_valuation_bridge
27
The cartoon is a satirical commentary on the housing market/equity, used here as a thematic hook for a financial valuation slide.show_valuation_bridge
28
Includes a humorous cartoon about gas analysis to lighten the topic of legacy assets.analyze_data
29
The slide provides a valuation bridge for CONSOL's interest in CONE Midstream (CNNX).show_valuation_bridge
30
The chart visualizes the sum of parts valuation.show_valuation_bridge
31
Uses the Billy Mays 'But wait, there's more' meme to build anticipation for further valuation analysis.transition
32
The cartoon depicts a man coaching a cloud of gas before an interview, implying the gas is the one doing the talking.filler
33
The slide uses maps to visualize the geographic footprint of the company's assets.quantify_opportunity
34
The slide uses a screenshot of a CNBC news segment featuring David Einhorn to establish credibility and provide a visual hook for the critique.name_villain
35
The table highlights the $20.66 Capex per BOE column, showing negative values at lower oil prices.analyze_data
36
The slide uses a photo of the team at a Pioneer location to establish context for the management meeting.preempt_rebuttal
37
The slide uses a negative value to highlight 'Value destruction' of $3.37 per BOE.show_valuation_bridge
38
The table uses color coding to distinguish between May 2015 (yellow) and November 2015 (orange) DCF valuations.analyze_data
39
The slide uses a cynical tone to critique market valuation.show_valuation_bridge
40
The slide uses a 'Value destruction' callout to highlight negative net present value.show_valuation_bridge
41
The slide uses a visual comparison to debunk the idea that there is a significant difference in the physical infrastructure of oil vs gas drilling.frame_situation
42
The slide highlights the discrepancy between volume output and revenue generation across different well types.compare_peers
43
Uses a cartoon to illustrate a counter-intuitive market observation.expose_contradiction
44
The slide highlights production growth while emphasizing management's decision to defer new investment until economics improve.analyze_data
45
The slide uses a humorous cartoon to make a point about competitive advantage regarding land ownership and royalty costs.present_solution
46
Uses a sports metaphor to frame a corporate strategy comparison.frame_situation
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
47
The cartoon depicts a classroom scene with a teacher writing simple math on the board, captioned 'When people say 'Do the math,' is this the kind of thing they'filler
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
48
The title is a play on the film 'Last Tango in Paris', referencing Paris, Pennsylvania.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
49
The slide includes a narrative note about the drilling restart timing and a source citation.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
50
The slide acts as a summary conclusion for the preceding valuation analysis.show_valuation_bridge
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
51
The slide uses a peer benchmarking table to validate a DCF-derived valuation against market-implied values.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
52
Uses a cartoon metaphor to illustrate the 'half-full' vs 'half-empty' perception of two companies in the same market.compare_peers
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
53
The chart uses a dual-axis approach to show absolute production volume (area chart) alongside relative market share (line charts).analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
54
The image depicts a transition from a barren landscape to a lush one, reinforcing the 'bright future' theme.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Satisfaction
55
compare_peers
56
The slide uses a line chart to illustrate market volatility and the impact of low-cost gas on pricing.analyze_data
57
The slide uses a humorous headline to introduce a serious market anomaly (basis differential).expose_contradiction
58
The slide uses a cynical title to frame the poor performance of the selected peer group.compare_peers
59
The cartoon depicts a disembodied head asking to join a table, serving as a metaphor for adding a 'piece' to the valuation analysis.transition
60
establish_context
61
The cartoon is a classic visual metaphor for market cycles.frame_situation
62
The chart illustrates a sharp drop in drilling activity starting in early 2015.analyze_data
63
The cartoon serves as a metaphor for operational backlog in the oil and gas industry.frame_situation
64
The cartoon serves as a metaphor for the high decline rate of natural gas wells.analyze_data
65
The slide uses a clear action title to summarize the trend shown in the chart.analyze_data
66
The chart illustrates a 2.7% CAGR over the period.analyze_data
67
The chart compares current storage levels against a Last Twelve Months (LTM) average.analyze_data
68
Includes a Non Sequitur comic strip as a visual metaphor for supply and demand.summarize
69
The chart uses a dual-line graph (capacity vs net supply) with annotations pointing to specific pipeline projects.present_solution
70
The chart uses a dual-axis approach to compare two different commodities with different price scales.analyze_data
71
The slide uses a cartoon to illustrate a point about the irony of questioning oil demand while driving an electric vehicle.expose_contradiction
72
The slide uses a personal anecdote and humor to highlight the economic and lifestyle benefits of EV ownership.other
73
The slide uses a political cartoon to convey a market thesis about the decline of oil demand.frame_situation
74
The chart shows a historical correlation that broke down around 2009.analyze_data
75
The table highlights the sensitivity of the valuation to market variables, with a specific focus on the 8.4% WACC and 0% premium scenario.analyze_data
76
The slide highlights strategic actions including acquisitions, divestitures, and organizational changes.summarize
77
The slide uses a play on words ('Faked' vs 'Baked') and a lightbulb joke to make a point about market perception.filler
78
The slide uses a V-shaped recovery pattern as an analogy for a future investment thesis.cite_precedent
79
The cartoon is a classic Charles Barsotti piece often used in financial presentations to add levity to market volatility discussions.summarize
81
Includes detailed footnotes explaining methodology for cost of capital, commodity pricing, and operational expenses.analyze_data
82
Includes operational metrics like Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
83
The table includes operational metrics like production and reserves alongside financial metrics like EBITDA, Capex, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
84
The table includes line items for Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, Drilling Carry, and Cash Tax.analyze_data
85
The table provides annual projections for Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
86
The years 2056-2065 are unusually far-future projections for a standard DCF model.analyze_data
87
The table includes line items for Capex, Reserves, Production, Revenues, Opex, EBITDA, and After-tax cash flow.analyze_data
88
The years 2076-2085 are likely placeholders or specific long-term model projections.analyze_data
89
The years 2086-2095 are likely placeholders or specific long-term model projections.analyze_data
90
The years 2096-2105 are likely placeholders or specific long-term model projections.analyze_data
91
The years listed (2106-2115) appear to be placeholders or typos for 2016-2025.analyze_data
92
The years listed (2116-2120) appear to be placeholders or typos for 2016-2020.analyze_data
93
Includes detailed footnotes explaining the methodology for cost and production assumptions.analyze_data
94
Base Case scenario, figures in $M unless otherwise noted.analyze_data
95
B-3analyze_data
96
Base Case scenario, figures in $M unless otherwise noted.analyze_data
97
Page number B-5 indicates this is an appendix slide.analyze_data
98
Base Case scenario, values in $M unless otherwise noted.analyze_data
99
Page number B-7 indicates this is an appendix slide.analyze_data
100
Includes CONSOL's Pennsylvania Operations segment (Bailey, Enlow Fork, and Harvey Mines).analyze_data
101
C-2show_valuation_bridge
102
Base Case scenario, figures in $M unless otherwise noted.analyze_data
103
Base case scenario in $M.analyze_data
104
Includes details on commodity pricing, production volumes, operating costs, and WACC calculation references.analyze_data
105
D-2 footer indicates this is an appendix page.analyze_data
106
Base Case scenario; values in $M unless otherwise noted.analyze_data
107
Page D-4analyze_data