2024 Benedict Evans 2024 AI eats the world

Benedict Evans
arc beats above · slides in the middle · loops below · scroll → 8 LOOPS
SETUP TENSION ANALYSIS EVIDENCE RESOLUTION APPENDIX
HOVER FOR DETAILS · CLICK A SLIDE FOR FULLSCREEN · STEP 5
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Deck intelligence map

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Slide inventory

87
every slide · same image gating as the playbook
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Slide 1
front_matter
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
03
The chart illustrates the 'hype cycle' phenomenon in tech media coverage.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
04
The chart highlights a significant increase in AI-related startups in recent cohorts.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
05
The chart illustrates a significant market correction following the 2021-2022 peak.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
06
Uses a simple process flow diagram to illustrate market evolution.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
07
The slide uses a simple flow/comparison diagram to contrast two potential future states for AI model architecture.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
08
The chart illustrates the rapid shift in revenue composition towards Data Centre starting around 2022.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
09
The chart illustrates the significant growth in infrastructure spending by the 'big three' cloud platforms.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
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Data source: McKinsey. The chart illustrates adoption levels ranging from 'Have not tried' to 'Use for work'.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
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summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
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The slide uses a screenshot of a NYT article as a visual anchor for the theme of AI regulation.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Surface ObservationLoop · Pattern Hunter
13
The slide uses a simple process flow of three circles to represent competing or sequential hypotheses about a technology.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Surface Observation
14
transition
Open slide detailBeat · First Layer
15
This is a classic Benedict Evans slide illustrating the cyclical nature of tech platform shifts.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
16
The slide uses a simplified S-curve to map technology maturity phases.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
17
The slide uses a simplified S-curve to categorize technology adoption phases.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
18
The slide uses a simplified S-curve to categorize technology maturity into three stages: 'Why is this useful?', 'Exciting!', and 'Boring'.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
19
The slide uses a classic S-curve model to frame the maturity of current tech trends.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
20
The slide uses a classic computer vision example (object detection) to frame the question of ML's real-world value.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
21
The slide uses a simple linear process diagram to frame the core value proposition of machine learning.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
22
Tesler's Theoremsummarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
23
The slide uses a rhetorical question to frame the upcoming section.transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
24
The slide uses a screenshot of a ChatGPT interface to illustrate a 'cool' but potentially non-useful use case.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
25
The slide uses a rhetorical question to challenge the traditional definition of search.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
26
The slide uses a screenshot of a New York Times article about a lawyer using ChatGPT to create fake case law as a cautionary example.transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
27
The slide uses a screenshot of a ChatGPT response to illustrate AI hallucination.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
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transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
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frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
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transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
31
Data source: Deloitte, UK June 2023 survey.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Before After
32
The slide uses a simple split-screen layout to define the nature of AI systems.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
33
The slide uses a simple comparison framework to contrast two eras of machine learning.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
34
The slide uses a simple linear process diagram to frame the inquiry into generative AI.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
35
This is a minimalist quote slide used to emphasize a core thesis point.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
36
The slide uses a circular flow to represent the evolution of LLM application maturity.present_solution
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
37
The slide uses a satirical tone regarding the ubiquity of AI in social media platforms.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
38
The slide uses a split-screen image to show a raw product shot vs. a generated lifestyle shot.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Analogy
39
The slide uses a simple circular layout to present three distinct strategic responses to platform shifts.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
40
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
41
The slide uses a visual metaphor of a central AI-generated image to illustrate the 'both' strategy.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
42
The image is a still from the 1960 film 'The Apartment'.transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
43
The slide uses a causal chain structure to illustrate how foundational technological shifts lead to broad, unforeseen societal or business outcomes.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
44
The image shows an early iPhone App Store interface, serving as a visual metaphor for the 'gatekeeper' concept.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
45
The slide uses a linear process flow to illustrate the shift in information consumption paradigms.transition
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
46
Uses a BlackBerry as a metaphor for a technology that was once dominant but eventually superseded by a different interface model (touchscreen smartphones).summarize
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
47
The slide uses a simple hub-and-spoke diagram to present a binary choice for AI inquiry.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · First LayerLoop · Precedent
48
transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
49
cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
50
The slide uses a linear process flow to illustrate the shift in human-computer interaction paradigms.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
51
Uses Clippy as a cultural reference for early AI agents.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
52
The slide uses Clippy as a visual metaphor for the 'AI Agent' concept.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
53
summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
54
The slide uses a screenshot of the ChatGPT interface to illustrate the 'blank slate' problem of generative AI.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
55
The slide uses a screenshot of an empty Excel sheet to illustrate the 'blank canvas' concept.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
56
The image shows the Microsoft Excel template gallery, illustrating how a 'blank canvas' tool is used to create many specific solutions.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
57
The slide uses a parallel structure to show a historical progression of business models.summarize
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
58
The quote illustrates the trade-offs and context-dependency of software tools.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
59
The chart shows a clear trend of increasing SaaS app usage across all segments, particularly in Mid-market and Large enterprises.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
60
The slide uses a central hub-and-spoke-like diagram to contrast two future scenarios.compare_options
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper LayerLoop · Paradox Resolver
61
The image is likely AI-generated (Midjourney) and serves as a metaphorical transition.transition
Open slide detailBeat · Deeper Layer
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transition
Open slide detailBeat · Core Insight
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Tesler's Theoremother
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
64
The slide uses a simple linear process diagram to define the scope of AGI.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
65
The slide uses a screenshot of a research paper as a primary source of authority.cite_precedent
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
66
The slide uses a screenshot of a web article as a primary visual anchor.illustrate_case
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
67
The slide uses a provocative, high-quality AI-generated image to illustrate the 'brilliance' of Generative ML, likely setting up a counter-argument about its prframe_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
68
The slide uses an AI-generated image to illustrate the 'hallucination' or lack of true understanding in generative models.other
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
69
The slide uses a simple visual layout with three circles representing different viewpoints, followed by a shrug emoji to indicate uncertainty.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
70
The slide uses a screenshot of a Wikipedia page about cognitive biases to support a philosophical or psychological argument.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
71
The chart is Figure 4 from an OpenAI report, showing GPT performance on exams.diagnose
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
72
Uses an analogy of the Apollo program to highlight the lack of metrics for AGI.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · Core InsightLoop · Hypothesis Test
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transition
Open slide detailBeat · Implications
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The slide uses a reverse-chronological or retrospective flow, showing how past ideas evolved into current ones and looking forward to future ones.present_framework
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
75
The chart uses a grouped bar format to contrast positive revenue against negative operating income.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
76
The slide uses a simple flow diagram (circle to grid) to show the expansion of regulatory scope.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
77
The chart uses dotted lines to indicate the long-term trend trajectory.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
78
The chart marks key historical milestones like Apple Macintosh and Mosaic.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
79
analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
80
The chart shows a clear divergence in growth trajectories between traditional fast fashion retailers and Shein.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
81
The chart tracks search interest from Jan 2016 to late 2023.analyze_data
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
82
frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
83
The slide uses a simple comparison list to show that domain expertise is required to answer questions about industry disruption.frame_problem
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
84
The slide uses a historical chart from a 1979 Walmart Annual Report to frame a discussion about market evolution.establish_context
Open slide detailBeat · ImplicationsLoop · Precedent
85
front_matter
86
This is an introductory slide for a presentation deck by Benedict Evans.other
87
summarize