{ "docId": "019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "docSlug": "jarvis-nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "documentTitle": "Nathan P Myhrvold Microsoft", "authorId": "nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "authorName": null, "documentKindSlug": "deck", "documentKindLabel": "Deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "investor_relations", "sourceTypeLabel": "Investor relations", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": null, "aspectRatio": null, "pageNumber": 26, "pageCount": 28, "prevPage": 25, "nextPage": 27, "slideType": "key_messages", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This is a text-heavy page from a document titled 'Road Kill on the Information Highway'.", "elementsJson": null, "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a/26", "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a#slide-26", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.518 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I believe that the same thing will happen again with PCs playing the role of mainframes and minis, and the computing platforms of the information highway taking over the role of the challenger.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "060a9414-508d-4f4e-a5dd-2bacf6e06e94", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.828 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "PCs will remain paramount within their domain for many years (we'll still have a computer on every desk) but IHCs will start to penetrate a larger and larger customer base on the strength of its new and unique applications. The power of having the worlds information - and people - on line at any time is too compelling to resist. For a long time people will still have a traditional PC to handle traditional PC tasks - in precisely the same way that they have kept their mainframes and minis for the last 17 years. One day however people will realize that their little IHCs are more powerful and cheaper than PCs - just as we have finally done with mainframes. There will be a challenge for the IHC software folks to write the new systems and applications software necessary to obviate PCs, just as we had to work pretty hard to come up with NT, but this battle", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "30ca3c6c-2bf3-4671-9716-7ea9087d62e9", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.658 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Another way to say this is that the rich environment of software for PCs is largely irrelevant for IHCs. Windows, NT, System 7 and Cairo do not solve the really important technical problems required for IHC applications, and it is equally likely that the early generations of IHC software won't be great platforms for PC style apps. This isn't surprising because they are driven by an orthogonal set of requirements.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4be85957-ba37-4cd6-8d57-ff4bddea2092", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.558 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The technical needs of computers on the information highway, or IHCs are quite different than for PCs. The killer applications for IHCs in the early years will include video on demand, games, video telephony and other distributed computing tasks on the highway. It is hard to classify this as either higher tech or lower tech than the software for PCs, because the two are quite different. Most IHCs will certainly need to be cheaper than PCs by an order of magnitude and this will inevitably cause them to be less capable in many ways, but some of their requirements are far more advanced.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "4e91834d-dc24-4543-973c-54f8fc8e8188", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.188 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As a case in point, consider that the fundamental category needs for mainframes and minicomputers also still exists and will continue to do so for a very long time. Despite this, the companies involved are dying and the entire genre is likely to disappear. The reason is that a new breed of machine - the PC - came along which out flanked them. In the early years PCs were not particularly good at what minis and mainframes did, but they were terrific at a whole new set of problems that the traditional computing infrastructure had basically ignored.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "79e62fa9-b14e-4473-9948-a3547607fc30", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.118 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I've saved the best for last. Our own industry is also doomed, and will be one of the more significant carcasses by the side of the information highway. The basic tasks that PCs are used for today will continue for a long as it makes sense to predict, so it isn't a question of the category disappearing. The question is one of who will continue to satisfy these needs and how?", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b0194ef7-a66f-4080-a74b-e9cdf2894a5e", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.095, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.728 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The IHC world will almost certainly grow faster than PCs, both in business terms and in price/performance. The PC industry is already reaching saturation from a business perspective. Technically speaking, the industry is mired in hardware standards (Intel and Motorola CISC processors) with growth rates that are flattening out relative to the state of the art - just as the 360/3090 and VAX architectures did. The Macintosh and Windows computing environments may be able to survive the painful transition to new RISC architectures, but they will lose time and momentum in doing so.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b841c413-6b75-4a3d-b5b1-da8bb8d84e52", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.298 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Personal productivity applications drove PCs onto millions of desks and created a very vital industry which grew faster - both in business terms and price/performance - than the mainframe and minicomputer markets. The power conferred by this growth made PCs the tail which wagged the dog; free to ignore the standards which existed for mainframes and minis and move off on their own. Over time the exponential growth in computing has finally (after 17 years) given the PC industry the technical ability to beat minis and mainframes in their own domain. Although the early software platforms for PCs had to be extended to fully realize this potential (Dos to Windows to NT to Cairo), it turned out to be far easier to do this than to make mainframe or minicomputer systems address the new needs and applications. Even within the heart of minicomputer and mainframe's domain - giant transaction processing applications etc., the old standards will not be used.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e5303ab1-b4b5-4b10-8d46-9b390fb972b0", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.016, "w": 0.185, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Personal Computers", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "49fcae09-1c34-4bfc-84e9-f7bc663764ac", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [ { "name": "disruptive-innovation", "slug": null, "matchId": "ae5e03d0-b2ce-494c-93f4-ad971a1aeccf", "evidence": "The text describes the classic pattern of a new, cheaper, less capable technology (IHC) eventually displacing an established, more powerful one (PC) by addressing new needs.", "confidence": 0.9 } ], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 28, "from": 22, "beatId": "2611d0d7-74bd-4bc6-b7ed-9419d43a138a", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Solution", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "evidence": "The later slides offer key messages and potential solutions, providing relief.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Resolution", "parentBeatSlug": "resolution" } ], "loops": [], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }