{ "docId": "019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "docSlug": "jarvis-nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "documentTitle": "Nathan P Myhrvold Microsoft", "authorId": "nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "authorName": null, "documentKindSlug": "deck", "documentKindLabel": "Deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "investor_relations", "sourceTypeLabel": "Investor relations", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": null, "aspectRatio": null, "pageNumber": 25, "pageCount": 28, "prevPage": 24, "nextPage": 26, "slideType": "other", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This is a page from a document titled 'Road Kill on the Information Highway' by Bill Gates.", "elementsJson": null, "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a/25", "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a#slide-25", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.145, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.611 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This covers existing movies, but what about the new media? The role of Hollwood in the new business is much more uncertain than the distribution question. It is far from clear what role the major studios will play, if any, since in any direct sense they don't really make the movies - they finance them and arrange distribution deals and perhaps rent them some production facilities. The actual creative work is done by a collection of individuals - actors, directors and employees at small companies like Industrial Light and Magic, which come together for an individual project. Financing and distribution will still have to occur, but they are as likely to be done by integrated highway companies as they are by decendents of today's studios.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "2ed4443f-2c53-43f8-b092-915d6ea2ac19", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.762 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "As the information highway and the growth in computing price/performance progress, new narrative and entertainment formats will develop. Computer games will increase in production values until you won't be able to tell the difference between the game and a movie - they will be equally realistic. High bandwidth communications over the highway will enable multiple people to come together and share the same experience - real or simulated. Who will create the new media formats and entertainment for the information highway? Many of the creative people will come from the community that currently makes movies, but I suspect that the majority of current Hollywood talent will not make the transition.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "56e56046-2542-41ec-a7a9-d12178b83a0f", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.135, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.47 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Blockbuster and other video rental stores are currently the largest source of revenue in absolute terms. Their business is almost certain to go away as the information highway provides large libraries of films on line. However unfortunate this is for video store owners, it is a boon to Hollywood because the current video rental business is based on selling the tapes to the stores rather than directly participating in the rental income. Video on demand on the highway will be done as a share of revenue which is far more lucritive for the film's owners. The death of the video store will greatly increase the bottom line to Hollywood.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "69481eba-f1f4-4f69-8c45-40991d8e66be", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.105, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.117 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The motion picture industry has developed a very predictable reaction to technology. In the past 50 years there have been a number of technological innovations - talkies, color films, television, VCRs and cable TV. In each case the initial reaction was the same - the new breakthrough was the work of the devil, an evil force which would destroy the industry. These fears have never proved out, and in fact just the opposite has happened. Each change caused a large expansion of the market for feature films and greatly increased revenues.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "82b88b9a-a043-48f3-b2f3-18f0c5b65e9a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.893 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The most dramatic shift for Hollywood will be the change in production costs and equipment. Over the course of the last 10 years publishing has moved from having an incredibly expensive analog production process - up to thousands of dollars per page - to one where a PC and software are sufficient for both professionals and amateurs alike. The same thing will happen to video editing, post production and special effects, as the growth in computing capabilities continues. The amazing dinosaurs in Jurassic Park will cost 1000 times less in ten years, making this sort of effect available to nearly anyone. A few years after that and effects of this capability will be in children's toys - the ultimate extrapolation of the Etch-a-Sketch.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "876caa18-c243-4017-bcc9-059c9cdf1efb", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.165, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.299 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Movie theater attendance is continuing to drop, to the point that theater revenue is no longer the largest source of revenue for most films. The good thing about theaters for Hollywood is that the price is relatively high, and the margin is good - typically about 50%. Despite this, the current trend is likely to continue and theaters will become a smaller and smaller phenomenon, although they are unlikely to become completely extinct. In fact stage plays are a good model - they are still around despite movies, television and other art forms. Plays no longer hold the same relative position as a medium of mass entertainment, and one day the same thing will be true of movie theaters. They will be expensive places where people purists, afinicados and those with nostalgia go for a special night out.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "bffd3597-f6c7-46b3-8aaf-9721c225791a", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.766, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.228 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "This rosy picture may well happen once again. Movies are likely to be popular for at least the next 20 years, and probably far longer. The information highway is a great way to deliver films - in fact a far better one than the current schemes. Hollywood's fortunes will continue to improve as the highway takes a larger share of film distribution.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "f5a289ac-3278-42d9-ad4d-0866e6c7e056", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.018, "w": 0.105, "x": 0.117, "y": 0.093 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Hollywood", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "7749e14e-f8b4-41c6-a83e-37a781db7a5d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 28, "from": 22, "beatId": "2611d0d7-74bd-4bc6-b7ed-9419d43a138a", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Solution", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-solution-provide-relief", "evidence": "The later slides offer key messages and potential solutions, providing relief.", "position": 2, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Resolution", "parentBeatSlug": "resolution" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 25, "from": 22, "name": "Mece Breakdown", "slug": "40-mece-breakdown", "bestFor": "Problem structuring, ensuring completeness, strategic analysis", "matchId": "890ba313-c63f-41a0-be7d-787ac89c9752", "evidence": "The slides in this range offer a breakdown of the problem, suggesting a MECE breakdown loop.", "position": 1, "objective": "How can we break down the problem into manageable parts?", "structure": "The Whole -> Category A (distinct) -> Category B (distinct) -> Category C (distinct) -> Complete Coverage", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Divide a complex topic into mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive categories" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }