{ "docId": "019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "docSlug": "jarvis-nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "documentTitle": "Nathan P Myhrvold Microsoft", "authorId": "nathan-p-myhrvold-microsoft", "authorName": null, "documentKindSlug": "deck", "documentKindLabel": "Deck", "sourceTypeSlug": "investor_relations", "sourceTypeLabel": "Investor relations", "presentationDate": null, "orientation": null, "aspectRatio": null, "pageNumber": 17, "pageCount": 28, "prevPage": 16, "nextPage": 18, "slideType": "other", "function": "summarize", "density": "overcrowded", "nDataPoints": 0, "notes": "This appears to be a page from a confidential Microsoft internal document or presentation, likely authored by Bill Gates given the tone and content.", "elementsJson": null, "metadataConfidence": 0.9, "imagePath": null, "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a/17", "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a", "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a.json", "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3fb5-7170-aef4-84c4b577350a#slide-17", "components": [ { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.16, "x": 0.42, "y": 0.975 }, "kind": "disclaimer", "text": "MICROSOFT CONFIDENTIAL", "attrs": null, "subkind": "disclaimer", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "146cfecf-f3a0-43cc-a66f-b6f466ff2367", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.075, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.095 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The Wall Street Journal pointed out to me that AT&T had almost 10 times the number of software developers that Microsoft does. Despite this resource inequity I don't believe that the major equipment companies are in any better position to write the software for the new generation of ATM based communications systems than the hordes of IBM mainframe software developers were in writing PC software.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "1663f211-9304-4161-bf46-8baaf4bba503", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.085, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.235 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "In fact, software will be the area in which these new communications systems are hardest hit. Today's systems - whether for a PBX or central office, are notoriously hard to modify and are all proprietary - much like minicomputer or mainframe operating systems. There are few if any third party software developers for them, and direct programming by end users (or their MIS organizations) is impossible. As a result there are few applications and little flexibility.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "6097e854-3246-42e4-b3e4-989ba0824e47", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.035, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.935 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The biggest casualty in this transition will be existing network software architectures, because they too are wholly incapable of serving the new world. There are a couple of fundamental", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "82de829f-402e-4551-99f5-50a94bd796cd", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.115, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.545 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The software architecture for supporting this new flexible approach to communications is likely to move to software companies rather than be written by hardware vendors. The hardware itself will be priced on the quality of the implementation and many different hardware manufacturers will support the same software. In other words, the situation will be a lot like the PC market. This is going to kill most of the current set of communications companies, and i expect that within five to ten years most of the important players will be new entrants similar to Compaq, Dell and Gateway, with few if any of the current leaders left as real contenders.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a0fdeb51-1210-4dcc-aa5e-60ff121cc4e2", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.08, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.665 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "Novell ???", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "a3dff98c-431d-40fb-a176-2436e72eb371", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.045, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.685 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "People who make local area network equipment aren't gong to fare much better as a rule than the folks in the communications business. The one saving grace is that most of these people already live (or already suffer) in a very low margin, fast paced market so the effects will not be anywhere near as traumatic.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "b5dfe9ea-cdea-4572-955b-08451c07038b", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.055, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.175 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The individuals involved are probably smart and their experience may be useful - but only if they are taken out of the old environment and have their goals and philosophy reset. Many people made the transition from working on big computers to working on small ones, but in my experience no organization ever did.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d2839224-9d18-443b-b6de-8f5a90e112f8", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.125, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.805 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "I believe that this is ridiculous. The argument is tantamount to saying that PCs wouldn't effect the mainframe market because they'd be used as terminal emulators. While it is true that some PCs were used this way, particularly in the early days, the really dramatic and important aspects of the personal computing revolution were about totally new applications which fueled customer demand and opened vistas that were never part of the mainframe world. The same will be true for fast ATM based LANs - they will allow video and voice telephony, communication of rich multimedia documents in real time and seamless integration with high speed wide area networks in ways which current LANs are wholly incapable of providing. In doing so, they will create a new set of users and applications.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "d98fa521-aac3-452a-b8a2-64c3c4852b96", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.215, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.325 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "The trend for the future will be towards third party applications which write to industry standard APIs - just like on PCs. Many of these apps will promote end user programmability and customization - both at simple levels like call forwarding, out of office and related features to advanced systems for use in vertical markets. The TAPI spec is the beginning of this trend because it allows Windows apps to interface to a PBX but many more opportunities exist. I believe that one of the next \"killer apps\" in the office (and later the home) will be communications control. Today the most that we get to do is set a few speed dial numbers, and record our answering machine or voicemail greeting. Programming your communications - including voice, video and conference versions of both as well as email and FAX, will become important to both organizations and individuals. As this occurs, the old style PBX and central office switches will be unable to compete.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e286c53e-e011-4034-b69e-184da9375ea4", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.065, "w": 0.764, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.735 }, "kind": "paragraph", "text": "There is a persistent hope on the part of many people involved with LANs that ATM and fiber networks will basically be a transparent change to their current business. This theory holds that ATM will primarily be used as a high speed version of Ethernet - probably for network backbones and other places where the throughput is required. There is no change needed, they say, because this is just a better version of what we already have.", "attrs": null, "subkind": "paragraph", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "e696a020-0abf-41fd-80f9-95fd2c6d308d", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null }, { "bbox": { "h": 0.015, "w": 0.33, "x": 0.118, "y": 0.048 }, "kind": "title", "text": "Road Kill on the Information Highway", "attrs": null, "subkind": "headline", "toolName": null, "toolSlug": null, "confidence": null, "componentId": "ba05e56a-7c93-4b26-bc6b-641aa32bdcf5", "frameworkName": null, "frameworkSlug": null } ], "metrics": [], "tools": [ { "name": "Thesis archetype", "slug": "thesis-archetype", "agent": null, "layer": "slide", "matchId": "59eef498-168a-4a6f-9c0a-bf0c2bf4d5fd", "evidence": "The trend for the future will be towards third party applications which write to industry standard APIs - just like on PCs.", "confidence": 0.8 } ], "frameworks": [], "arcBeats": [ { "to": 21, "from": 8, "beatId": "c4000fce-7737-4db4-b476-72f27afaf767", "arcName": "Problem-Agitate-Solution", "arcSlug": "problem-agitate-solution", "beatName": "Agitate", "beatSlug": "problem-agitate-solution-agitate-make-it-worse", "evidence": "The middle slides elaborate on the challenges and complications, agitating the problem.", "position": 1, "confidence": 0.8, "parentBeatName": "Development", "parentBeatSlug": "development" } ], "loops": [ { "to": 20, "from": 15, "name": "Cost Of Inaction", "slug": "27-cost-of-inaction", "bestFor": "Urgent budget requests, compliance, risk mitigation", "matchId": "6aba251c-e656-499c-b1f7-7568f625fc72", "evidence": "The slides in this range highlight the costs of inaction, suggesting a cost-of-inaction loop.", "position": 0, "objective": "What are the consequences of inaction?", "structure": "The Status Quo -> The Hidden Costs Accumulating -> The Future State of Inaction -> The Tipping Point", "confidence": 0.6, "description": "Quantify what happens if the audience does nothing" } ], "imagePathAlt": null, "thumbSrc": null, "thumbSrcAlt": null, "locked": true }