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  "documentTitle": "McKinsey Forecasting HCA Healthcare EBITDA performance",
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      "text": "Our \"base\" estimate of annual EBITDA growth for HCA is 1.4% over the next 3 years. This estimate is lower than management's projection (3.0%) by 160 basis points. The key sources of that difference are: Lower incremental collections improvement on bad debt accounts; Lower growth in the net revenue per adjusted admission for commercial payors and Medicare; Lower assumptions on future labor productivity gains.",
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      "text": "Going forward, 2007 EBITDA could be as much as $150-200 million above or below our base case projections under most likely scenarios. In years beyond 2007, it is unlikely HCA would have multiple consecutive years of \"extreme\" over / underperformance.",
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      "text": "Our forecast was built by looking at the five fundamental drivers of overall profitability – net revenue per adjusted admission (NR/AA), volume, provision for bad debt, labor cost, and supplier cost. These 5 \"driver\" forecasts were built \"outside-in\" using external market data for validation wherever possible.",
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