{
  "docId": "019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "documentTitle": "McKinsey Forecasting HCA Healthcare EBITDA Growth",
  "authorId": "mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 20,
  "pageCount": 80,
  "prevPage": 19,
  "nextPage": 21,
  "slideType": "data_table",
  "function": "analyze_data",
  "density": "dense",
  "nDataPoints": 9,
  "notes": "The slide uses a combination of bar charts to illustrate trends in self-pay metrics over three time periods (2001-03, 2003-05, 2005-09P).",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34/20",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34#slide-20",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.12,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.82
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "Key assumptions in base case projection: Hospitals will continue to use chargemaster to offset pricing/bad debt pressure; Acuity for self-pay patients should return to zero over time",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "70167b5d-7a4b-4a76-9c61-78be52ccac70",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.5
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Estimated change in $/unit due to acuity/utilization change",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "47f211c0-1abd-439f-b80c-504f0e6b6ee3",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.25,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.52,
        "y": 0.18
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Estimated CAGR in charge-master pricing",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "8773dacf-f91e-41a5-ba5f-28325b29c3a4",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.3,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.22
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Self-pay account balance growth rate",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "bar-vertical",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "caf7696d-ba19-4f61-a11a-df7884f8f992",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.05,
        "w": 0.15,
        "x": 0.75,
        "y": 0.08
      },
      "kind": "legend",
      "text": "Historical; Projected",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "legend",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "afbbb76a-87b1-4358-b8ab-822a1216f742",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.2,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.97
      },
      "kind": "other",
      "text": "Source: Henry Company data",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "source-note",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "2692670e-1f0c-488e-b083-d3ab5fa65e9c",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.9,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "SELF-PAY NR/AA IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE AT A DOUBLE-DIGIT RATE",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "headline",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "254c7cbb-26c2-4af2-a948-185dda5fe930",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [],
  "frameworks": [],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "026448c0-65be-478a-8b70-6435ff3c87fe",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof",
      "evidence": "The document provides evidence and proof to support the forecast, including data tables and financial analysis.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 5,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "32558b28-b5d8-46bf-8228-fffd66b3c446",
      "evidence": "The document analyzes patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends, including changes in payor class mix and service line mix.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}