{
  "docId": "019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "docSlug": "jarvis-mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "documentTitle": "McKinsey Forecasting HCA Healthcare EBITDA Growth",
  "authorId": "mckinsey-forecasting-hca-healthcare-ebitda-growth",
  "authorName": null,
  "documentKindSlug": "consulting-deck",
  "documentKindLabel": "Consulting deck",
  "sourceTypeSlug": "strategy_consulting",
  "sourceTypeLabel": "Strategy consulting",
  "presentationDate": null,
  "orientation": null,
  "aspectRatio": null,
  "pageNumber": 19,
  "pageCount": 80,
  "prevPage": 18,
  "nextPage": 20,
  "slideType": "financial_analysis",
  "function": "quantify_impact",
  "density": "balanced",
  "nDataPoints": 5,
  "notes": "The chart illustrates the impact of internal re-classification and DSH reallocation on the baseline growth rate.",
  "elementsJson": null,
  "metadataConfidence": 1,
  "imagePath": null,
  "slideHref": "/slides/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34/19",
  "deckHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34",
  "deckJsonHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34.json",
  "deckAnchorHref": "/decks/019f6b8f-3688-75f9-b14b-82f50c3e0c34#slide-19",
  "components": [
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.5,
        "w": 0.35,
        "x": 0.63,
        "y": 0.25
      },
      "kind": "callout",
      "text": "\"Baseline\" Medicaid NR/AA growth in 2005 was ~1.0-1.5%, in line with historical performance. Going forward, base case growth set at high-end of 2005 baseline performance, given likelihood in future years of some continued DSH reallocation in smaller amounts",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "primary",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "ccca18c8-8cf6-4d03-a797-7b084d941cdf",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.65,
        "w": 0.55,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.2
      },
      "kind": "chart",
      "text": "Breakdown of growth of Henry Medicaid NR/AA, 2005",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "waterfall",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "effe26b2-0421-49a3-956f-c977e02ec606",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.03,
        "w": 0.3,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.95
      },
      "kind": "source-note",
      "text": "Source: Henry financial data; team analysis",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "source-note",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "c8cc6b49-bd61-4758-8726-cfda672496e2",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    },
    {
      "bbox": {
        "h": 0.08,
        "w": 0.85,
        "x": 0.05,
        "y": 0.03
      },
      "kind": "title",
      "text": "MEDICAID NR/AA GROWTH IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO ADJUSTED GROWTH FIGURES IN 2005",
      "attrs": null,
      "subkind": "action-title",
      "toolName": null,
      "toolSlug": null,
      "confidence": null,
      "componentId": "af39bb30-40b1-4140-8370-dd4b0c7cbb14",
      "frameworkName": null,
      "frameworkSlug": null
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [],
  "tools": [
    {
      "name": "Waterfall chart",
      "slug": "waterfall-chart",
      "agent": null,
      "layer": "slide",
      "matchId": "8dae7bed-dff3-4704-b4ad-65a835b3c644",
      "evidence": "This slide contains a waterfall chart showing the breakdown of growth of Henry Medicaid NR/AA.",
      "confidence": 0.7
    }
  ],
  "frameworks": [
    {
      "name": "waterfall-chart",
      "slug": null,
      "matchId": "2077d612-8e5e-4b39-b744-b72d2b296c14",
      "evidence": "The slide uses a waterfall chart to decompose the growth rate.",
      "confidence": 1
    }
  ],
  "arcBeats": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 11,
      "beatId": "026448c0-65be-478a-8b70-6435ff3c87fe",
      "arcName": "The Consultant's Gambit",
      "arcSlug": "consultants-gambit",
      "beatName": "Evidence & Proof",
      "beatSlug": "consultants-gambit-evidence-proof",
      "evidence": "The document provides evidence and proof to support the forecast, including data tables and financial analysis.",
      "position": 2,
      "confidence": 0.8,
      "parentBeatName": "Evidence",
      "parentBeatSlug": "evidence"
    }
  ],
  "loops": [
    {
      "to": 20,
      "from": 5,
      "name": "Pattern Hunter",
      "slug": "02-pattern-hunter",
      "bestFor": "Time-pressed audiences, building consensus, when data is strong",
      "matchId": "32558b28-b5d8-46bf-8228-fffd66b3c446",
      "evidence": "The document analyzes patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends, including changes in payor class mix and service line mix.",
      "position": 0,
      "objective": "Identify patterns in HCA Healthcare's financials and industry trends",
      "structure": "Evidence A -> Evidence B -> Evidence C -> Pattern/Conclusion",
      "confidence": 0.7,
      "description": "Group multiple pieces of evidence that together point to a pattern or conclusion"
    }
  ],
  "imagePathAlt": null,
  "thumbSrc": null,
  "thumbSrcAlt": null,
  "locked": true
}